tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sorry; just saw your qpf numbers. Any comment on 12z track versus 00z? looks like it may be a little east of 0z, but its not like a huge amt. The thing that hurts is its slower to really get going thus we are raining a little longer till things get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like it may be a little east of 0z, but its not like a huge amt. As you can see in the NW though it's a big deal. I mean we go from 1.25 to 0.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is Philly about the same with frozen? yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yes. Sounds decent, then. The MA forum is saying that the Euro tends to be a little warm with BL and 850s, but the GFS was close, so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As you can see in the NW though it's a big deal. I mean we go from 1.25 to 0.50. no the amount of shift wouldnt screw you that much. Its just the precip field is just disorganized until the low is just east of us. The precip area shrunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like it may be a little east of 0z, but its not like a huge amt. The thing that hurts is its slower to really get going thus we are raining a little longer till things get going. Friend just texted me MOS output for 12z EURO: KNYC: .69 Snow .60 Rain/Mix KEWR: .67 Snow .59 Rain/Mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 if my memory serves me correctly, at least at my latitude, there was no rain at all in Dec 2003. a matter of fact i drove from NYC to Philly that day and it snowed the entire ride until we arrived at Philly proper. Im also not sure what he is referring to with Dec. 2003. We started off as a light rain/snow mix in Holmdel that morning of Dec. 5th with temps in the mid-30s. In 30 mins, we wetbulbed below freezing, changed to snow and never looked back, accumulating 8" by late afternoon. then some freezing dirzzle thru the night til the ccb formed with the coastal and produced another 5" or so for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 about how much is frozen for HPN.... i am 7 miles NW of HPN.... so how would it be up here? going off 850s ,5-,75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Umm I guess it's not a bad analog at all looking at upper level maps and the airmass in place. Everything was a little more west with that though. It would probably be a very similar reason to why we would (if we do) change over to snow, the bombing coastal. I remember they changed to freezing rain and thunder in northwest NJ and a good icestorm in the Hudson Valley as the storm started to bomb off the coast. Snow to start Christmas Eve night, then the snow on the backend obviously. 22" of snow fell at my Aunt's in Monroe NY around the icestorm and they could not make it to my Uncle's on Staten Island that Christmas. Great memories from that storm. I lived in Morris Co. in 2002 and that storm will forever be etched in my memory for experiencing a progression of sleet > freezing rain > thunder > hail (yes - hail) > heavy snow. My favorite Jebwalk of all time was Christmas night. Wound up with about 8" on the backside (if I were to post this in the MA forum, there'd be a separate thread thanks to that phrase). This storm doesn't seem THAT close as far as the early-goings are concerned. Then again, I did see a little tiny speck of black (convective precip) on the CoolWx graphic for the 12Z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 no the amount of shift wouldnt screw you that much. Its just the precip field is just disorganized until the low is just east of us. The precip area shrunk. And that has been another irksome seasonal trend. Tighter QPF shields. Same thing happened on 12/26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Friend just texted me MOS output for 12z EURO: KNYC: .69 Snow .60 Rain/Mix KEWR: .67 Snow .59 Rain/Mix How far west does that mix continue or is that cut-off zone?. Is KMMU or KCDW looking at the same split? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Im also not sure what he is referring to with Dec. 2003. We started off as a light rain/snow mix in Holmdel that morning of Dec. 5th with temps in the mid-30s. In 30 mins, we wetbulbed below freezing, changed to snow and never looked back, accumulating 8" by late afternoon. then some freezing dirzzle thru the night til the ccb formed with the coastal and produced another 5" or so for my area yes- that is what i remember as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tombo how much qpf for York,pa? about an inch, again on the cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Please relax with the IMBY posts. Side note: Zelocita, where is your friend getting the Euro MOS text from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 KCDW highest 850 temp during the event in .3 C. KMMU highest 850 temps is .5. Surface temps never get above 34. Places northwest of KTEB look to almost be mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude888 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just a quick question regarding location, I'm here in Staten Island, is it better to use KNYC or KEWR soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tombo we love you. Do you love us enough for FWN as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just a quick question regarding location, I'm here in Staten Island, is it better to use KNYC or KEWR soundings? I use KJFK and KEWR for SI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Im also not sure what he is referring to with Dec. 2003. We started off as a light rain/snow mix in Holmdel that morning of Dec. 5th with temps in the mid-30s. In 30 mins, we wetbulbed below freezing, changed to snow and never looked back, accumulating 8" by late afternoon. then some freezing dirzzle thru the night til the ccb formed with the coastal and produced another 5" or so for my area The 12Z runs would indicate this has 12/03 type potential as far as what happened on the first day of the event...everyone thought it would be a rain-snow transition...looking at this event I see no reason why it may not surprise people again by being mostly snow now....I think the models may be a bit generous with the mid-level warming and its close anyway....the surface doesn't look to be an issue, the GFS MOS shows 37/29 over JFK at 18Z but thats with a 030 wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I lived in Morris Co. in 2002 and that storm will forever be etched in my memory for experiencing a progression of sleet > freezing rain > thunder > hail (yes - hail) > heavy snow. My favorite Jebwalk of all time was Christmas night. Wound up with about 8" on the backside (if I were to post this in the MA forum, there'd be a separate thread thanks to that phrase). This storm doesn't seem THAT close as far as the early-goings are concerned. Then again, I did see a little tiny speck of black (convective precip) on the CoolWx graphic for the 12Z GFS: Interesting indeed. Down here in Monmouth we had about 2" of snow followed by heavy rain and temps in the low 40s. by mid-afternoon we had gone over to heavy snow and accumulated roughly 3" on the backside. Missed those bands that stayed over certain areas dumping 6+" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro gives the area light snow this weekend from the clipper system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Please relax with the IMBY posts. Side note: Zelocita, where is your friend getting the Euro MOS text from? Not sure what site/source, but he does have paid access to some service...he's trying to get MMU as we speak... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tombo, how much snow in the northern Lehigh Valley , any mixing issues? no the lehigh valley looks fine, they may mix briefly, but not much northern part of lehigh valley is .75-1.25 since i dont know where lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Noreaster07 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Total qpf lines .5 Chambersburg, PA to Harrisburg, to Hazleton, To Albany, NY .75 Gettysburg, PA to Lebanon, PA to Lehighton, PA to Hudson, NY 1" Hagerstown, MD to just west of these cities Lancaster, PA to Reading to east stroudsburg, PA to Poughkeepsie, NY 1.25 Fredrick, MD to basically through cites for 1" in PA outlines above to Nazereth, PA to Newark, to NY and then south of LI 1.5 Germantown, MD running just east of Lancaster, Reading to Easton, PA cutting southeast accross NJ to Long Beach, NJ and out to sea 1.75 DC to Baltimore to Dover DE, To Slaisbury MD, back to the Chesapeake BAY and to DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not sure what site/source, but he does have paid access to some service...he's trying to get MMU as we speak... I'd be interested in the service if he knows what it is. I have a paid service at the office, but it doesn't include the MOS output for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not sure what site/source, but he does have paid access to some service...he's trying to get MMU as we speak... KMMU: 0.81 Snow , 0.50 Rain/Mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 KMMU looks to maybe briefly mix early in the storm and then it turns to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bullfr2121 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For Somerset County should I be looking at EWR/NYC totals, and maybe a little more frozen because we're West...but not "inland" enough for all snow? Being in my area kinda sucks on here because its in between everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tombo we love you. Do you love us enough for FWN as well? i included fwn already in the origninal qpf i believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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