tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 48 has a sub 1008 low over east central ga...h5 is closed at the 546 hgt over north central alabama...precip is up to pa turnpike with the frz and 850 line running through phl and nyc, but just w of dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Did the 93-94 winter have 2 ice storms? I remember the Jan one, but for some reason I thought there was another one not quite as large. I remember my brother and I looking at the temps outside and seeing 17 degrees and it was pouring for the Jan. storm. Yeah, there was another snow/sleet/ice event in January that was a lesser one but not small by any means. We had like 30 events that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 has a sub 1000 low bout 75 miles west of cape fear...still closed off at the h5 at the 546 hgt line... hr 54 has the f850s from holmdel to phl to hgr...with .1-.25 over the area... lgt precip getting into nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 54 has a sub 1000 low bout 75 miles west of cape fear...still closed off at the h5 at the 546 hgt line... hr 54 has the f850s from holmdel to phl to hgr...with .1-.25 over the area... lgt precip getting into nyc Sounds colder initially? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 if my memory serves me correctly, at least at my latitude, there was no rain at all in Dec 2003. a matter of fact i drove from NYC to Philly that day and it snowed the entire ride until we arrived at Philly proper. Started out as heavy rain, I distinkly remember Alan Casper on NJ 101.5 cancelling the storm to rain about 15 mins before all hell broke loose with heavy dynamic snows lasting all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 60 has a sub 996 over orf, a good bit south of 0z...trying to get captured at h5 850s run from nyc to ukt to hgr...just lgt precip over the area, with hvr precip down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 66 has a sub 992 low captured at h5 about 75 miles, maybe more, east of lewes del.... ..5-.75 over the area but 850s are running just west of the cities still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 72 has a sub 988 low over the bm nice ccb over the area .25-1 precip range from about dc to nyc...850s are off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 78 still has .1-.25 from phl to just west of nyc, nyc included but its on the far eastern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's very rare to see ZR in NYC with a bombing coastal storm. I have to imagine it will be a rain to snow event for NYC with dynamic cooling helping out. Also, how does HPN only get 4.5" of snow based on GFS BUFKIT? They get 0.97" QPF and should be almost all snow with maybe a little sleet mixed in based on the temp profile on GFS. Yeah this is not a freezing rain setup by any means, just the bufkit not really knowing what to make of the near isothermal freezing/just above layer during the storm. As for HPN, the 12z bufkit shows only .48" liquid for HPN through the entire event. So the 4.5" makes sense there, but where do you see 0.97?? Check that: Sorry jconsor, 6z gfs was still loaded for kHPN for some reason. Everywhere else was the actual 12z gfs bufkit. So obviously, a much bigger storm than I depicted for HPN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 qpf hazleton .5 (tough to tell shar cutoff) avp .25 (again sharp cutoff) abe 1-1.25 ttn 1.5-1.75 acy 1.75 nyc 1-1.25 fwn 1-1.25 mmu 1-1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 hr 72 has a sub 988 low over the bm nice ccb over the area .25-1 precip range from about dc to nyc...850s are off the coast Tombo -- Seems like the track is similar to the 00z run but with less qpf. Would that be right or not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 balt 1.75 dc 1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 qpf hazleton .5 (tough to tell shar cutoff) avp .25 (again sharp cutoff) abe 1-1.25 ttn 1.5-1.75 acy 1.75 nyc 1-1.25 fwn 1-1.25 mmu 1-1.25 Phl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 qpf hazleton .5 (tough to tell shar cutoff) avp .25 (again sharp cutoff) abe 1-1.25 ttn 1.5-1.75 acy 1.75 nyc 1-1.25 fwn 1-1.25 mmu 1-1.25 how much of the qpf is frozen for these cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Correct me if I'm wrong, Tom - looks like just as much precip. as last night, with quite a bit when 850s are near or past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tombo -- Seems like the track is similar to the 00z run but with less qpf. Would that be right or not? yea pretty much, it may be a little further east...the precip has a an even sharper cutoff and is not as far west now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Porsche Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 balt 1.75 dc 1.75 Can you do rdg and kln and mdt? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 forgot phl 1.5-1.75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bates Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tombo -- Seems like the track is similar to the 00z run but with less qpf. Would that be right or not? Sorry; just saw your qpf numbers. Any comment on 12z track versus 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 balt 1.75 dc 1.75 Thanks for including these..Is it safe to say on EURO that Balt gets .25-.50 of accumulating snow on backend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can you do rdg and kln and mdt? Thanks rdg 1.25 lns 1.25 mdt .5-.75 all of these places are on the shrap cutoff so these are estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How much of that 1.00-1.25 is frozen for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thanks for including these..Is it safe to say on EURO that Balt gets .25-.50 of accumulating snow on backend? again, this is just going solely by 850 temps...it looks like .3-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yea pretty much, it may be a little further east...the precip has a an even sharper cutoff and is not as far west now.. Sounds like about 25 miles or so east of the last run. A sharper gradient might mean the second high is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How much of that 1.00-1.25 is frozen for NYC? maybe .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 maybe .2-.45 About the same as the GFS, maybe slightly less.... 2-4 instead of 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How do you feel about the Xmas 2002 analog? Umm I guess it's not a bad analog at all looking at upper level maps and the airmass in place. Everything was a little more west with that though. It would probably be a very similar reason to why we would (if we do) change over to snow, the bombing coastal. I remember they changed to freezing rain and thunder in northwest NJ and a good icestorm in the Hudson Valley as the storm started to bomb off the coast. Snow to start Christmas Eve night, then the snow on the backend obviously. 22" of snow fell at my Aunt's in Monroe NY around the icestorm and they could not make it to my Uncle's on Staten Island that Christmas. Great memories from that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 About the same as the GFS, maybe slightly less.... 2-4 instead of 3-6. its roughly bout .25-.5....its hard to know when things dynamically cool when u just go off 850s, and i dont have 3 hrs increments so i cant really precise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 maybe .25-.5 Is Philly about the same with frozen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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