earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 New thread...same story. You guys know the drill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 All guidance is generally at the same latitude at the same time...so not really sure what sense it makes in some saying that they do not believe in the speed of the system? So basically what those people think is ALL the guidance is wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 "You will be beheaded" I'm not sure thats correct English...its probably "you'll get beheaded" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 All guidance is generally at the same latitude at the same time...so not really sure what sense it makes in some saying that they do not believe in the speed of the system? So basically what those people think is ALL the guidance is wrong.... I think some of that stems from the delay on some models today. The 12z and 00z Euro have the storm around the same hours...so it's definitely slowed the system a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 "You will be beheaded" I'm not sure thats correct English...its probably "you'll get beheaded" iPhone auto correct..230am. It auto corrected beheaded to be-headed, also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF is wetter in the NYC area. 992 low southeast of LI. Over 1 QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WHEN COMPARING THE GUIDANCE...THE 00Z NAM /AND EVENTUALLY THE 00ZUKMET AND 00Z ECMWF/ ARE THE SLOWEST WITH THIS SYSTEMSPROGRESSION...WHICH IS IN THE DIRECTION OF NAM/ECWMF/TO SOMEDEGREE GFS TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE18Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS...IS QUICKER WITH THIS SYSTEMSPROGRESSION AND DEEPER ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE 12Z/00Z UKMETWERE THE MOST WESTWARD AND LIES COMPLETELY OUTSIDE THE WEST SIDEOF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGHTHE SOUTHEAST. WHILE THE 12Z UKMET CATCHES UP TO THE 12ZECMWF...ITS 00Z RUN NO LONGER DOES...LYING WITHIN THE SOUTHERNSIDE OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD. IN THREE DAYS...THE 00ZCANADIAN MOVES THE SYSTEM UP THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND...WHICH ISON THE WESTERNMOST SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD. SINCE THECANADIAN IS TRENDING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE REMAINDER OF THEGUIDANCE...AND DUE TO MINIMAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT...WILL RULE OUT THE12Z/00Z CANADIAN. THE 12Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WAS BACK TO ITS USUALLOOK...WITH THE GEFS MEMBERS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SPREAD ANDTHE ECMWF ON THE WESTERN SIDE. CONSIDERING ALL OF THEABOVE...WILL PREFER A 00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS COMPROMISE SOLUTIONHERE...WHICH THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGINGTOWARDS. THIS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED12Z ECMWF. HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF is wetter in the NYC area. 992 low southeast of LI. Over 1 QPF. Much toastier at 850 too. Its kind of a catch 22 with this system...we all want heavy qpf, but there is a very fine line...as it means warmer mid-level temps to get it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 SREF is wetter in the NYC area. 992 low southeast of LI. Over 1 QPF. Very warm too..850 0c line has bumped northwest a good bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Very warm too..850 0c line has bumped northwest a good bit. As we saw with the last storm the SREF 850s were horrific at its long range...it had the 0C 850 line in Buffalo on some runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Very warm too..850 0c line has bumped northwest a good bit. Freezing line is just north of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 unless some new high develops or a better way of getting colder air into the area quicker, the higher qpf is going to relate to rain to snow. Less qpf would mean a little further ots and more snow and not as much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 unless some new high develops or a better way of getting colder air into the area quicker, the higher qpf is going to relate to rain to snow. Less qpf would mean a little further ots and more snow and not as much rain. I really think this is an event where a Euro solution would be the best thing for the coastal portions of the area....I'm not sure with the air mass we will have we want to chance a track near the benchmark where the precipitation rates may fall short of what we need to stay all snow...with a track like the Euro, even if its only a 988mb low I would be very confident in decent snows to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 unless some new high develops or a better way of getting colder air into the area quicker, the higher qpf is going to relate to rain to snow. Less qpf would mean a little further ots and more snow and not as much rain. So say the Euro showed 4-8" for the area - we could still get at least that much because there's more snow with it offshore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So say the Euro showed 4-8" for the area - we could still get at least that much because there's more snow with it offshore? lol what...if the storm moves further ots you will lose qpf. But like snowgoose said you would loose the dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really think this is an event where a Euro solution would be the best thing for the coastal portions of the area....I'm not sure with the air mass we will have we want to chance a track near the benchmark where the precipitation rates may fall short of what we need to stay all snow...with a track like the Euro, even if its only a 988mb low I would be very confident in decent snows to the coast. well it seems with the euro, im not sure if you can use this method or not. The closer it is obv the warmer it will be. Say the euro bumps this 50 miles east, wouldn;t that drag everything else atleast further east. Granted we would loose some qpf, but that would seem like the 850s would be a little colder to start. Edit: saw Will's response Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really think this is an event where a Euro solution would be the best thing for the coastal portions of the area....I'm not sure with the air mass we will have we want to chance a track near the benchmark where the precipitation rates may fall short of what we need to stay all snow...with a track like the Euro, even if its only a 988mb low I would be very confident in decent snows to the coast. Agreed...the best way for NYC metro to get significant snow (>4") IMHO is to have the stronger solution try and flip them to snow during the 2nd half of the storm. The first half....forget it, even if 850mb is technically cold enough. The BL wind is awful. Different story for interior elevation NJ and SE NY above 401 feet. But getting the CCB to try and go to town as mid-level temps crash is the best way to get snow on the CP there...at least meaningful snow. A further OTS solution might make it snow a bit longer during the storm but it would probably be cruddy temps and not stick very well outside the interior elevated spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agreed...the best way for NYC metro to get significant snow (>4") IMHO is to have the stronger solution try and flip them to snow during the 2nd half of the storm. The first half....forget it, even if 850mb is technically cold enough. The BL wind is awful. Different story for interior elevation NJ and SE NY above 401 feet. But getting the CCB to try and go to town as mid-level temps crash is the best way to get snow on the CP there...at least meaningful snow. A further OTS solution might make it snow a bit longer during the storm but it would probably be cruddy temps and not stick very well outside the interior elevated spots. Wouldn't the wind be from the northeast from the storm coming up? Or are you saying before the storm occurs the bl is torched from the southeast flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Different story for interior elevation NJ and SE NY above 401 feet. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wouldn't the wind be from the northeast from the storm coming up? Or are you saying before the storm occurs the bl is torched from the southeast flow? It eventually would turn NE during the storm but its out of the east leading up to it and at the onset. The damage is done by then...the coast would have to wait until it goes more NNE or N. BTW, Euro ensemble mean is just a hair inside the BM track from a position just E of SBY....ML temps actually looks just a tick warmer than the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol what...if the storm moves further ots you will lose qpf. But like snowgoose said you would loose the dynamic cooling. Understood - I was thinking it may not warm as much initially, but looks like that isn't the case. At first we wanted a less intense storm, but now we might need the low to produce the cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agreed...the best way for NYC metro to get significant snow (>4") IMHO is to have the stronger solution try and flip them to snow during the 2nd half of the storm. The first half....forget it, even if 850mb is technically cold enough. The BL wind is awful. Different story for interior elevation NJ and SE NY above 401 feet. But getting the CCB to try and go to town as mid-level temps crash is the best way to get snow on the CP there...at least meaningful snow. A further OTS solution might make it snow a bit longer during the storm but it would probably be cruddy temps and not stick very well outside the interior elevated spots. It's okay Will, he only lives at 340 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agreed...the best way for NYC metro to get significant snow (>4") IMHO is to have the stronger solution try and flip them to snow during the 2nd half of the storm. The first half....forget it, even if 850mb is technically cold enough. The BL wind is awful. Different story for interior elevation NJ and SE NY above 401 feet. Nicely done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM is definitely more organized and juiced up through hr. 54. 850s in S. Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 precip and surface low well NW of 00z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Mod. precip. up to DC hr. 60. 0c 850 line is in central Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Mod. precip. up to DC hr. 60. 0c 850 line is in central Delaware. Through 54 the run looks gorgeous (and I'm guessing post-54, as well). This might come in as a MECS on the 06z. At 60 this looks like a classic Nor'Easter in the making, with heavy wet snow incoming for PHL on N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Through 54 the run looks gorgeous (and I'm guessing post-54, as well). This might come in as a MECS on the 06z. At 60 this looks like a classic Nor'Easter in the making, with heavy wet snow incoming for PHL on N. Yep, light-mod snow into SE PA by hr. 66. 850s still in central Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 per skew-t it looks like maybe some mix or rain to start then quickly over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep, light-mod snow into SE PA by hr. 66. 850s still in central Delaware. you can't go by 850s...the problem area is the bl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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