Pattern Change thread

[CT Rain]

highs in the low - mid 50's on one or 2 of the days. Maybe a + 3 for the period

I'm thinking +6(for BDL)

[N. OF PIKE]

We'll see temps get into the mid to upper 50's with a day or so near 60F. You'll be wrong about that like you were for this torch.

wiz you could both be right respectively if BLIZZ is refering to his back yard.

[weatherwiz]

wiz you could both be right respectively if BLIZZ is refering to his back yard.

Yeah, with those lapse rates if BDL is about 63F he is probably around 43-45F with a random stratus deck producing drizzle

[New England Storm]

We have some nice cold air chances. In nne it looks like the real deal, sne looks like we might have good chances at cold weather. I was still on the sne warm train before later today, now I think we to might have good chance near thanksgiving. And now wcvb might have a chance at stormy weather near thanksgiving, could we be getting some snow. It is not out the realm of possiblity.

[N. OF PIKE]

We have some nice cold air chances. In nne it looks like the real deal, sne looks like we might have good chances at cold weather. I was still on the sne warm train before later today, now I think we to might have good chance near thanksgiving. And now wcvb might have a chance at stormy weather near thanksgiving, could we be getting some snow. It is not out the realm of possiblity.

NNE will have a above average winter.....they will be safe from the SE ridge.....and better positioned for the raging P jet.

Heavy Heavy gradient from NNE to SNE this winter.

[ski MRG]

NNE will have a above average winter.....they will be safe from the SE ridge.....and better positioned for the raging P jet.

Heavy Heavy gradient from NNE to SNE this winter.

Should be just fine here.

[New England Storm]

Should be just fine here.

That what we will be hopeing for.

[nzucker]

sounds like political damage control

the overall tone has become less bullish for cold strength and confidence related to duration

sure no reason to flip out at this stage but would like to see trends stop getting weaker for cold.

Yes, things have changed towards a less favorable outcome on the models in the last few days. The SE ridge has been trending stronger, with the ECM now advertising 588dm heights in the Deep South, a pattern that's clearly not conducive to snow along the I-95 coastal plain in late November. Also, you can see that although the blocking is impressive, its location and timing is far from ideal. The Alaska block which originally develops (-EPO) is sitting up too far west which is allowing a strong trough to form in the West (-PNA) and limit how far the cold can extend into the East/New England. As soon as the -NAO starts to beat down the SE ridge in the longer range, the EPO is going positive, allowing the PV to retreat to Siberia and deprive Canada of the bitterly cold air currently present. Although the Atlantic looks great in the long range, the Pacific becomes unfavorable with a large low pressure drifting around near the Pac NW/GoA and allowing the jet to introduce a lot of maritime air into the continent. The last cold anomalies present in North America are stuck behind that vortex in Alaska and NW Canada, nowhere near New England.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes, things have changed towards a less favorable outcome on the models in the last few days. The SE ridge has been trending stronger, with the ECM now advertising 588dm heights in the Deep South, a pattern that's clearly not conducive to snow along the I-95 coastal plain in late November. Also, you can see that although the blocking is impressive, its location and timing is far from ideal. The Alaska block which originally develops (-EPO) is sitting up too far west which is allowing a strong trough to form in the West (-PNA) and limit how far the cold can extend into the East/New England. As soon as the -NAO starts to beat down the SE ridge in the longer range, the EPO is going positive, allowing the PV to retreat to Siberia and deprive Canada of the bitterly cold air currently present. Although the Atlantic looks great in the long range, the Pacific becomes unfavorable with a large low pressure drifting around near the Pac NW/GoA and allowing the jet to introduce a lot of maritime air into the continent. The last cold anomalies present in North America are stuck behind that vortex in Alaska and NW Canada, nowhere near New England.

The pattern post-Thanksgiving will likely yield at least one legit snow threat for New England, potentially more.

[CT Rain]

The pattern post-Thanksgiving will likely yield at least one legit snow threat for New England, potentially more.

Hopefully

[nzucker]

The pattern post-Thanksgiving will likely yield at least one legit snow threat for New England, potentially more.

It's just normal that NNE and elevated areas of SNE are going to have snow chances starting after Thanksgiving, I mean that's just basically stating climo.

I'd like to see the PV staying on our side for a bit longer with the -EPO being more consistent. This looks like mostly a favorable pattern for the Plains/Rockies while we just get a couple weak cold fronts and then go back to a raging GoA low.

[CT Rain]

It's just normal that NNE and elevated areas of SNE are going to have snow chances starting after Thanksgiving, I mean that's just basically stating climo.

I'd like to see the PV staying on our side for a bit longer with the -EPO being more consistent. This looks like mostly a favorable pattern for the Plains/Rockies while we just get a couple weak cold fronts and then go back to a raging GoA low.

I'm not too worried for most of SNE once we get past Thanksgiving. The pattern looks good and we don't need deep chill for snow threats.

[ChrisM]

I'm not too worried for most of SNE once we get past Thanksgiving. The pattern looks good and we don't need deep chill for snow threats.

yeah, right now...but you and I and everyone else knows how much that can all change by then...or by tomorrow for all we know.

[ORH_wxman]

It's just normal that NNE and elevated areas of SNE are going to have snow chances starting after Thanksgiving, I mean that's just basically stating climo.

I'd like to see the PV staying on our side for a bit longer with the -EPO being more consistent. This looks like mostly a favorable pattern for the Plains/Rockies while we just get a couple weak cold fronts and then go back to a raging GoA low.

I look for a below avg temp regime with an active looking pattern....that's exactly what we should have for a period post-Thanksgiving. Obviously the higher terrain is favored given the time of the year, but that doesn't mean there is no snow threat anywhere else in SNE like where Ray is or even the CT Valley.

It doesn't bother me that we aren't getting -15 850mb anomalies....we don't need them for a snow threat...well maybe if you are on the south coast of CT/RI and Cape Cod you do this time of year, but for a lot of the region you don't. I'm focusing on that period between the 27th and 8th/10th of December....not sure how long the pattern will last, but there's a decent chance we have it sit for a good 10-14 days.

If it turns out to be a bit colder, all the better for the climo disfavored areas.

[weatherwiz]

The period after thanksgiving does look pretty good snow potential wise, looks like the pattern could be quite active and we should be at least in a below-average temp pattern.

[nzucker]

I look for a below avg temp regime with an active looking pattern....that's exactly what we should have for a period post-Thanksgiving. Obviously the higher terrain is favored given the time of the year, but that doesn't mean there is no snow threat anywhere else in SNE like where Ray is or even the CT Valley.

It doesn't bother me that we aren't getting -15 850mb anomalies....we don't need them for a snow threat...well maybe if you are on the south coast of CT/RI and Cape Cod you do this time of year, but for a lot of the region you don't. I'm focusing on that period between the 27th and 8th/10th of December....not sure how long the pattern will last, but there's a decent chance we have it sit for a good 10-14 days.

If it turns out to be a bit colder, all the better for the climo disfavored areas.

Colder anomalies are obviously a bigger concern for me, Will, since I'm so close to the 55-degree ocean and don't have nearly as much elevation and latitude as you. I'd like a more arctic pattern to bring the storm track further south and ensure that the maritime influence doesn't become a problem. I'm just not convinced yet that we're going to see temperatures significantly below normal. The Atlantic regime looks good with a stout -NAO but how much can it fight the SE ridge if the Pacific goes back to being poorly configured? I don't like how recent model runs are ending the -EPO so quickly and breaking down the PV, only to reform it over Asia which is the end of our cross-polar flow. It seems the La Niña is winning by keeping heights high over the SE and not allowing for a long-term Pacific block to develop. It can only get worse with the inevitable strengthening and the PV naturally becoming more powerful as the winter goes on.

[ORH_wxman]

Colder anomalies are obviously a bigger concern for me, Will, since I'm so close to the 55-degree ocean and don't have nearly as much elevation and latitude as you. I'd like a more arctic pattern to bring the storm track further south and ensure that the maritime influence doesn't become a problem. I'm just not convinced yet that we're going to see temperatures significantly below normal. The Atlantic regime looks good with a stout -NAO but how much can it fight the SE ridge if the Pacific goes back to being poorly configured? I don't like how recent model runs are ending the -EPO so quickly and breaking down the PV, only to reform it over Asia which is the end of our cross-polar flow. It seems the La Niña is winning by keeping heights high over the SE and not allowing for a long-term Pacific block to develop. It can only get worse with the inevitable strengthening and the PV naturally becoming more powerful as the winter goes on.

Well its certainly going to be a bigger problem further south with this type of setup. But remember this thread is New England centric being in this subforum. So what might be an okay setup for I-90 in SNE could suck down in your neck of the woods. If we get a cold enough shot, than your area may be threatened too. Its impossible to say this far out though. I'm only speculating on a general regime...that it will likely be below normal temps and a good chance of an active pattern...can't really say too much else specific at this juncture.

The earlier the threat, the harder it will be for the CP to see snow.

[weatherwiz]

0z GFS looks real fun around thanksgiving.

[ORH_wxman]

0z GFS looks real fun around thanksgiving.

It actually tries to develop a wave along the front and throw a bit of snow on the back side of it. I'm skeptical of that happening, but who knows, maybe we'd get lucky. Even if it verified, it would only be like an inch of junk

[nzucker]

Well its certainly going to be a bigger problem further south with this type of setup. But remember this thread is New England centric being in this subforum. So what might be an okay setup for I-90 in SNE could suck down in your neck of the woods. If we get a cold enough shot, than your area may be threatened too. Its impossible to say this far out though. I'm only speculating on a general regime...that it will likely be below normal temps and a good chance of an active pattern...can't really say too much else specific at this juncture.

The earlier the threat, the harder it will be for the CP to see snow.

Don't most people in New England live in the warmer areas though?

Is this pattern going to be cold enough for Boston and the coastal areas of CT/RI? I don't think it's too bold (or indicative of a great pattern) to say that NNE and the hills of central Massachusetts could see snow...that's basically my point. It's not a particularly exceptional pattern that allows for Middlebury to see snow in late November since their climo is cold enough anyway at that juncture. I'm just wondering if the idea of "pattern change" is a bit exaggerated since it looks as if the regime isn't particularly special and that the +EPO we had earlier this month and during October may re-develop.

[weatherwiz]

It actually tries to develop a wave along the front and throw a bit of snow on the back side of it. I'm skeptical of that happening, but who knows, maybe we'd get lucky. Even if it verified, it would only be like an inch of junk

Yeah it doesn't look like much of anything right now but could be something to watch as we get closer. With a below-average temperature pattern in place and a pretty active jet this should at least give us a good feeling for some sort of potential, I couldn't imagine that leading to a boring cold/dry pattern. There should be multiple pieces of energy coming in off the Pacific and moving through the country.

[ORH_wxman]

Don't most people in New England live in the warmer areas though?

Is this pattern going to be cold enough for Boston and the coastal areas of CT/RI? I don't think it's too bold (or indicative of a great pattern) to say that NNE and the hills of central Massachusetts could see snow...that's basically my point. It's not a particularly exceptional pattern that allows for Middlebury to see snow in late November since their climo is cold enough anyway at that juncture. I'm just wondering if the idea of "pattern change" is a bit exaggerated since it looks as if the regime isn't particularly special and that the +EPO we had earlier this month and during October may re-develop.

I don't see why Boston metro couldn't see some snow out of this pattern, particularly later on in its evolution as we go into early December...Logan airport itself might have trouble out in the harbor, but people like Ray and anyone else who doesn't live on the water would have a legit chance.

Its a huge pattern change...look whats going on out in the plains when this kicks in. Just because it doesn't bring a huge snow threat or brutally cold temps to our backyard doesn't mean we haven't seen a fundamental shift in the long wave pattern. It might not produce anything here...who knows yet...but I like the chances of a threat or two to track.

[ORH_wxman]

The 00z GFS ensembles actually get it pretty cold over most of the east after about Nov 27-28. The PNA relaxes a bit and allows the NAO to drive the cold a little further SE. It actually looks like some members are probably trying to retrograde the NAO block a bit further west too as more of a weakness is showing up in the Davis Straight than previously...so that would sure help get the cold a little further south.

In addition, the MJO is showing signs of diving into the "circle of death" only to re-emerge in phase 7/8 near the very end of the month and into early December....we'll have to see how that forecast progresses too. That would also favor cold across more of the east.

[weatherwiz]

Matt Crepon can't get on lol...he's going into withdrawal. I tried helping him out telling him he would have to change his DNS address but he has windows vista, he has no clue what to do.

[weatherwiz]

Way to go me...I walked him through it, he's good

[H2Otown_WX]

Way to go me...I walked him through it, he's good

You can just become an IT meteorologist Paul. Thanks again!

[weatherwiz]

You can just become an IT meteorologist Paul. Thanks again!

I basically just copied everything from this website and told it to you lol.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ensembles looked pretty cold as well, in fact even trended a bit cooler at 00z, though this could just be run to run fluctuations.

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch cancel for early next week on the euro as we thought..Too much cold up north to have the kind of torching it was showing. Maybe 1 day of above nomal ahead of the fropa. Not 3 days of 60's and 70's like Ryan was saying.

Turkey day looks cold

[CT Rain]

Torch cancel for early next week on the euro as we thought..Too much cold up north to have the kind of torching it was showing. Maybe 1 day of above nomal ahead of the fropa. Not 3 days of 60's and 70's like Ryan was saying.

Turkey day looks cold

Didn't say that at all, as usual.