Pattern Change thread

[N. OF PIKE]

great posts nzucker

seems like if this trend continues like it has the last 3 days we'll have 25C 850's by thansgiving.

Major pattern change FTL (in nyc , CCod)

[CT Rain]

Yeah I don't think we'll be seeing any record lows challenged, lol....but it will be a below avg pattern and appears to be active as well and that's what you want to see. The lack of pure arctic cold this early will make it tougher for the coast line, but its always tough for them early on anyway.

Agreed. I think the sign that we'll be having an active pattern is more exciting to me than just a nasty bitter cold snap that's dry and boring.

[CT Rain]

great posts nzucker

seems like if this trend continues like it has the last 3 days we'll have 25C 850's by thansgiving.

Major pattern change FTL (in nyc , CCod)

Pattern is completely changing... not sure what you're talking about.

[Damage In Tolland]

Here come the bridge jumpers lol..cold and snow coming and yet socks and his compadres ready to hang themselves with his knee highs

[CT Rain]

Here come the bridge jumpers lol..cold and snow coming and yet socks and his compadres ready to hang themselves with his knee highs

Yeah not sure why all the debbie downers are flipping out. Looks cold and stormy past Thanksgiving... that hasn't changed.

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah not sure why all the debbie downers are flipping out. Looks cold and stormy past Thanksgiving... that hasn't changed.

Zucker and Pickett.swinging from one sock each

[dryslot]

Here come the bridge jumpers lol..cold and snow coming and yet socks and his compadres ready to hang themselves with his knee highs

Not ready to kick the chair out yet...........

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah I don't think we'll be seeing any record lows challenged, lol....but it will be a below avg pattern and appears to be active as well and that's what you want to see. The lack of pure arctic cold this early will make it tougher for the coast line, but its always tough for them early on anyway.

i don't know where the idea that the arctic was coming developed....and there's no benefit to it happening anyway.

[ChrisM]

Here come the bridge jumpers lol..cold and snow coming and yet socks and his compadres ready to hang themselves with his knee highs

[weatherwiz]

Here come the bridge jumpers lol..cold and snow coming and yet socks and his compadres ready to hang themselves with his knee highs

Who's flipping out?

[ORH_wxman]

i don't know where the idea that the arctic was coming developed....and there's no benefit to it happening anyway.

Yeah, we knew it was coming to the high plains...but it was never going to rip into here in full fury. It was always going to seep in here. We may still get a pretty darn cold airmass in brief intervals, but its mainly going to be just typical below average temperatures for late Nov/Early Dec and potentially active as well...that's what you want to see when looking for snow threats.

[Tropopause_Fold]

funny reading some of these posts...nothing has really changed here in the last 7 days...maybe even going back longer to when the first pattern change thread was started on Eastern.

[CoastalWx]

funny reading some of these posts...nothing has really changed here in the last 7 days...maybe even going back longer to when the first pattern change thread was started on Eastern.

I think even back two weeks ago when this was being hinted at on the models, we all said it would probably after Thanksgiving. I can't see the euro and ensembles, but 00z seemed like we were all set for a post Thanksgiving change.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Yeah, we knew it was coming to the high plains...but it was never going to rip into here in full fury. It was always going to seep in here. We may still get a pretty darn cold airmass in brief intervals, but its mainly going to be just typical below average temperatures for late Nov/Early Dec and potentially active as well...that's what you want to see when looking for snow threats.

yeah perhaps too much fantasizing over days 10 to 16 of the GFS in recent days? i don't know.

i think everything is OK in the long range. guidance is having horrendous problems on small scale stuff and there's some big swings after day 5 run-to-run, but that's to be expected, imo.

who knows.

[ORH_wxman]

I think even back two weeks ago when this was being hinted at on the models, we all said it would probably after Thanksgiving. I can't see the euro and ensembles, but 00z seemed like we were all set for a post Thanksgiving change.

12z is the same thing...heart of the cold is over SE Canada, N Lakes and NE. Looks like a decent gradient pattern but perhaps with a potential for a late bloomer too with the -NAO being fairly robust.

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think even back two weeks ago when this was being hinted at on the models, we all said it would probably after Thanksgiving. I can't see the euro and ensembles, but 00z seemed like we were all set for a post Thanksgiving change.

12z ec was a bit ugly in the long range but whatever. the ens. looked pretty decent, imo, at day 8/9/10. they actually cool things off a bit earlier than the op, fwiw.

[CoastalWx]

yeah perhaps too much fantasizing over days 10 to 16 of the GFS in recent days? i don't know.

i think everything is OK in the long range. guidance is having horrendous problems on small scale stuff and there's some big swings after day 5 run-to-run, but that's to be expected, imo.

who knows.

There should be a ban on looking at the op runs post D7. Don't even look at them when a major change like this occurs.

[Tropopause_Fold]

12z is the same thing...heart of the cold is over SE Canada, N Lakes and NE. Looks like a decent gradient pattern but perhaps with a potential for a late bloomer too with the -NAO being fairly robust.

that's an understatement. LOL.

[CoastalWx]

12z is the same thing...heart of the cold is over SE Canada, N Lakes and NE. Looks like a decent gradient pattern but perhaps with a potential for a late bloomer too with the -NAO being fairly robust.

12z ec was a bit ugly in the long range but whatever. the ens. looked pretty decent, imo, at day 8/9/10. they actually cool things off a bit earlier than the op, fwiw.

Cool, thanks. As we thought.

[CT Rain]

funny reading some of these posts...nothing has really changed here in the last 7 days...maybe even going back longer to when the first pattern change thread was started on Eastern.

The only thing that has changed (maybe) is the potential severity of the day 7-9 torch. It was going to be average or above average... so we might as well squeeze out a few more nice days.

[Tropopause_Fold]

The only thing that has changed (maybe) is the potential severity of the day 7-9 torch. It was going to be average or above average... so we might as well squeeze out a few more nice days.

yeah it could be pretty warm. but it's no surprise really.

the one thing we will have to watch though is just what happens with the system developing mid-week and starting to pump the NAO. that could ultimately promote some sort of HP feature north of new england making it tough for the true warmth of the OV to really drive north - though at some point it sort of has to come up.

[Damage In Tolland]

I stand by my thoughts that we do not torch early next week and the cold does not give way like euro shows and instead we are just a little above normal and the cold pattern is in place by Thanksgiving day.

[N. OF PIKE]

funny reading some of these posts...nothing has really changed here in the last 7 days...maybe even going back longer to when the first pattern change thread was started on Eastern.

sounds like political damage control

the overall tone has become less bullish for cold strength and confidence related to duration

sure no reason to flip out at this stage but would like to see trends stop getting weaker for cold.

Blizz we'll leave one more sock up here for you.....one of Nzucker's knee high's

[CT Rain]

I stand by my thoughts that we do not torch early next week and the cold does not give way like euro shows and instead we are just a little above normal and the cold pattern is in place by Thanksgiving day.

Since you'll spin this no matter what... please tell me what average temp anomaly you are expecting Mon, Tue, Wed

[40/70 Benchmark]

I stand by my thoughts that we do not torch early next week and the cold does not give way like euro shows and instead we are just a little above normal and the cold pattern is in place by Thanksgiving day.

Looks like bizz24 stole the CT Blizz handle.

[40/70 Benchmark]

sounds like political damage control

the overall tone has become less bullish for cold strength and confidence related to duration

sure no reason to flip out at this stage but would like to see trends stop getting weaker for cold.

Blizz we'll leave one more sock up here for you.....one of Nzucker's knee high's

Why, its not going to snow at your house for a few more weeks, regardless.

[Damage In Tolland]

Since you'll spin this no matter what... please tell me what average temp anomaly you are expecting Mon, Tue, Wed

highs in the low - mid 50's on one or 2 of the days. Maybe a + 3 for the period

[N. OF PIKE]

Why, its not going to snow at your house for a few more weeks, regardless.

fish aren't bitin lol

[N. OF PIKE]

highs in the low - mid 50's on one or 2 of the days. Maybe a + 3 for the period

far out but FWIW 18 gfs brings cold in a day earlier i.e early wednesday .

[weatherwiz]

I stand by my thoughts that we do not torch early next week and the cold does not give way like euro shows and instead we are just a little above normal and the cold pattern is in place by Thanksgiving day.

We'll see temps get into the mid to upper 50's with a day or so near 60F. You'll be wrong about that like you were for this torch.