CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 We lose the EPO block I hope that doesn't mean the cold never gets here. Well we don't go raging +EPO on the op Euro so all hope is not lost especially with the raging -NAO. Euro definitely lost the severity of the cold pool to the north in Canada from 00z to 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 La Torcho i'm sure we'll see things stabilize one way or the other in a few more days. nice example the last few days of why ens. are so useful and op runs can be like a dart board beyond 5 days. what a chaotic mess though. that NAO configuration is stupidly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Obviously a bogus Euro run today..We'll see it flip back to reality tonight to match it's own ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 i'm sure we'll see things stabilize one way or the other in a few more days. nice example the last few days of why ens. are so useful and op runs can be like a dart board beyond 5 days. what a chaotic mess though. that NAO configuration is stupidly strong. op run has consistently had a further west -NAO block but yeah... interested in seeing what the 12z euro ensembles have Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Obviously a bogus Euro run today..We'll see it flip back to reality tonight to match it's own ensembles Why's it bogus? It just pumps up the SE ridge a bit more before the cold comes in. I think the threat of a Monday-Wednesday torch was always there. Ensembles had it too... the severity of the torch was unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Wouldn't the Pacific end up being more of a driver for us this winter rather than the NAO? Considering how strong the Nina is and will probably be for a good chunk of the winter if we end up seeing a -PNA/+EPO setup wouldn't that just act to deflect most of the cold air to our north? We could at times get some it it to work into the Northeast but I feel as if the PAcific will be the ultimate decider as to what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 <br />Any suggestions for that? Literally put it together last night.<br /><br /Nice, add Wachusett? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 op run has consistently had a further west -NAO block but yeah... interested in seeing what the 12z euro ensembles have i'm more speaking in generalities but regardless...yeah the entire northern hemisphere is just all sorts of ugly on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Why's it bogus? It just pumps up the SE ridge a bit more before the cold comes in. I think the threat of a Monday-Wednesday torch was always there. Ensembles had it too... the severity of the torch was unclear. Agreed...even the GFS and the ensembles showed this brief period of warmth as heights get pumped up a bit before the Arctic front comes plowing through. Both sets of models also agree on the front passing through sometime in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Well we don't go raging +EPO on the op Euro so all hope is not lost especially with the raging -NAO. Euro definitely lost the severity of the cold pool to the north in Canada from 00z to 12z. Yeah the NAO is insane. Hopefully that'll save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Why's it bogus? It just pumps up the SE ridge a bit more before the cold comes in. I think the threat of a Monday-Wednesday torch was always there. Ensembles had it too... the severity of the torch was unclear. Because I don't think we see a 3 day torch with highs in the 60's and 70's. There's alot of cold lurking north and my guess is we see that boundary come south and either across SNE or south of us in subsequent runs. It may get a little above normal..I just highly doubt any torch like we had this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Wouldn't the Pacific end up being more of a driver for us this winter rather than the NAO? Considering how strong the Nina is and will probably be for a good chunk of the winter if we end up seeing a -PNA/+EPO setup wouldn't that just act to deflect most of the cold air to our north? We could at times get some it it to work into the Northeast but I feel as if the PAcific will be the ultimate decider as to what happens. well if the NAO ended up like this all winter...i think we'd be OK. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 If you move forward from the 240 hour op Euro you have a pretty decent snowstorm look by Friday lol. -NAO and a 50/50 kinda low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Because I don't think we see a 3 day torch with highs in the 60's and 70's. There's alot of cold lurking north and my guess is we see that boundary come south and either across SNE or south of us in susequent runs. It may get a little above normal..I just highly doubt any torch like we had this weekend Well I don't think 70s are likely at all but we're digging a massive west coast trough first... I think that favors a pretty raging SE ridge especially given the fact we're in a La Nina pattern. Rolling forward I think the op Euro is pretty solid for a snow event here around Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 well if the NAO ended up like this all winter...i think we'd be OK. LOL. Oh yeah if it were to be THIS negative that would certainly increase our chances but I'm not sure if I'm willing to bank on that occurring, plus if it did stay that way and suppressed things to our south than we might run into the same issue we did last year. Given the strength of the Nina though I'm not sure if we will see something like this occur...I can't think of something like that occurring in other moderate/strong Nina winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 <br />Well I don't think 70s are likely at all but we're digging a massive west coast trough first... I think that favors a pretty raging SE ridge especially given the fact we're in a La Nina pattern.<br /><br />Rolling forward I think the op Euro is pretty solid for a snow event here around Thanksgiving.<br /> As we thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 As we thought I'd rather get 3 days in the 60s Monday-Wednesday and wind up with a pattern that favors something wintry by Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 at least there's lots of cold in canada. certainly a good starting point as we push into the end of this month. who knows the specifics of how it all works out later next week and beyond. one thing is, you can see nicely though how long it can take to really get a new weather pattern established. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I'd rather get 3 days in the 60s Monday-Wednesday and wind up with a pattern that favors something wintry by Friday. Then we'll have the old "It's going to take a while to stick." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 <br />I'd rather get 3 days in the 60s Monday-Wednesday and wind up with a pattern that favors something wintry by Friday.<br /> Exactly people forget last year before the Dec 5 th storm we were in the. Summer mode. To me this evolution is perfect. Ii would love to see that block stagnate for 12 weeks or so, LOL,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 at least there's lots of cold in canada. certainly a good starting point as we push into the end of this month. who knows the specifics of how it all works out later next week and beyond. one thing is, you can see nicely though how long it can take to really get a new weather pattern established. LOL yeah. It's funny because by day 5 the pattern across noam completely flips but it takes until like day 11 or 12 to even see a sensible weather change in sne. We're starting with a the GOA ridge developing that plunges cold into the west... until the NAO gets established and is able to beat down the downstream SE Ridge do we start seeing things swing around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 The longer it gets pushed back the less cold of a pattern it will be..so if you're hoping it holds off till late month..then you're gonna end warmer than you want. Better to get it in here early and stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Exactly people forget last year before the Dec 5 th storm we were in the. Summer mode. To me this evolution is perfect. Ii would love to see that block stagnate for 12 weeks or so, LOL,. Part of it is annoying because we waste the first 5 days of the -NAO with a SE ridge in response to the huge -PNA pattern. So we def don't have the classic +PNA/-NAO dump... we're battling a bad looking west coast of CONUS which is why I favor a early next week torch before we cool off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 We just better hope that the NAO does indeed tank like the GFS/Euro as well as their ensembles have been advertising, looks like we will be stuck in a -PNA pattern for the time-being (not surprising given the state of the Nina) and looks like the EPO will turn positive around the time the NAO is expected to tank. If the NAO does not get this negative though we can probably throw away all this cold talk and maybe folks in NNE would be able to get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 The longer it gets pushed back the less cold of a pattern it will be..so if you're hoping it holds off till late month..then you're gonna end warmer than you want. Better to get it in here early and stick I don't think that's happening then. I think we won't get super cold... but enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I don't think that's happening then. I think we won't get super cold... but enough for snow. As long as we get enough blocking to squash the sE ridge so we don't get any lake cutters we will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 The 12z GFS actually backed off a bit on the strength of the -NAO that setsup, although the ensemble mean is a bit more intense with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Anyone else surprised that our first legit "cold threat" is being muted by a SE ridge that is flexing it's torch muscle? La Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 torch torch torch Only for 72 hours though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Anyone else surprised that our first legit "cold threat" is being muted by a SE ridge that is flexing it's torch muscle? La Fail. The next 3 weeks probably is our BEST chance to get pounded with snows...we can hope in March but we'll get to that road as we get closer. Considering the indications by some of the long-range guys on here about where the NAO will wind up as we move into and through winter it doesn't really bode well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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