Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Pattern Change thread


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

This is the beauty of the forum though... you can discuss threats and are entitled to your own opinion.

Sometimes my problem is separating the difference between who is just "discussing" the potential for snow verses those that are "forecasting" actual snow to fall. A lot of times people on here will post that they think it will snow and XYZ reason is why it will snow... yet if they were put on the spot to operationally forecast, they are much more reserved with regards to snow.

good point......and sometimes i just assume other's realize i dont THINK it will be a better than 50% or even25% chance it will actually snow on XYZ day...but if i see it as a REAL SHOT (which basically ...needs just moisture potential and a cold air source) then i will talk about it and hope it snows....but i can be level headed ....just cause i will drive 3 hrs for snow ......doesn't mean i don't realize unemotionally what the "approximate odds" may be...i believe i do ...i am a numbers type of guy........i'm just a :weenie: at heart.

and i was away from snow for 10 years in fl....so if i hope it will snow 5 days out and it doesn't come to pass.....i'm ok.....i know there is snow just around the corner...it's closin in on winter baby!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rev Kev will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious snow storms.

I'm getting that itch in my innie as well. I want to measure my first inch. I've bought the pump for this winter, ever since last winters disaster with elephant stretches..lol. While it may not be La Epic, I really don't think it will disappoint. Maybe I'll be horribly wrong..who knows. it's cute tho.

At least y'all never get into trouble with the wife like, Favre.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

coldest it's been this season .. for this early in the evening ....29F.....

Yeah same here - already down to 29F in Old Lyme CT. My station radiates quite nicely despite being only a couple miles inland from the warmish waters of Long Island Sound. The lowest low to beat so far is 27 set on Nov 2, though OKX has SW winds kicking up to 10-15 later on, so we'll see how low the temp gets before that happens.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sorry, my post should have been in the obs thread.

Its fine, I think this thread was about done anyway....we have basically been repeating the same points over and over again for the last few days. Mightbe time to start a thread looking a little further out into the first 2 weeks of December, and maybe we'll have a separate thread for the post-Thanksgiving potential.

I'll keep this one open a bit longer though. We're still a bit out in la-la land on the models to say much specific about any threats.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Its fine, I think this thread was about done anyway....we have basically been repeating the same points over and over again for the last few days. Mightbe time to start a thread looking a little further out into the first 2 weeks of December, and maybe we'll have a separate thread for the post-Thanksgiving potential.

I'll keep this one open a bit longer though. We're still a bit out in la-la land on the models to say much specific about any threats.

Your first post here looks to be spot on

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Your first post here looks to be spot on

I actually am pretty happy with how we identified the step down process over a week ago....the idea that we would get a cold shot (the one going on right now) but then we see a retreat of the cold for a few days before the more permanent cold sets in near Thanksgiving seems to be working out as we get closer.

I think the pattern will become somewhat favorable for snow chances after T-day, but there's certainly no guarantee....and its still a tad bit early in the season so there is less margin for error, particularly on the coast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I actually am pretty happy with how we identified the step down process over a week ago....the idea that we would get a cold shot (the one going on right now) but then we see a retreat of the cold for a few days before the more permanent cold sets in near Thanksgiving seems to be working out as we get closer.

I think the pattern will become somewhat favorable for snow chances after T-day, but there's certainly no guarantee....and its still a tad bit early in the season so there is less margin for error, particularly on the coast.

HM strato thread has me very interested, there is a nice link to albeit day old EC data sets that I have never seen, look out if the AO tanks. I am really getting amped that we finally see a long winter through late March.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...