CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 i think you have gotten so comfortable with the i'm not gonna get my hopes up on a model run out this far (or trend)......kind of like a GF doesn't trust guys after gettin burned bad........that i'm not so sure it's realist......maybe half realist thru a pessimist lens......perhaps an alter personality of CT RAIN manifested. Many are snake bitten after last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well I know how mother nature can serve up some humble pie too. Sure it's the gfs, but I would not say some wintry weather is impossible for most of sne, just unlikely as of now. I don't hold any emotional investment into this other than checking out the runs and seeing what they do. I'd keep my eye on it for the interior as of now. If we see these huge gradients this winter, it's gonna be one hell of a struggle for the models. Well its not impossible that I hit the megamillions and buy the Red Sox, but I'll bet against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Many are snake bitten after last year. I'm not; when there is a real threat, I'll be all over it.....again, name one time that I have been "negative" and it was unwarranted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well its not impossible that I hit the megamillions and buy the Red Sox, but I'll bet against it. LOL, it's not 12,000,000:1 odds. I think you'll have fun this winter. My gut says you'll enjoy it. I'm actually looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Ray and I are not that disimiliar in personality. Do I want snow, yes, but I just don't see it for most of sne on tday (adv level min) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 LOL, it's not 12,000,000:1 odds. I think you'll have fun this winter. My gut says you'll enjoy it. I'm actually looking forward to it. LOL I know...jk. I agree....this winter will be a blast, but some have an itchy trigger finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Sinner... 3 Hail Kevins for you good one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Ray and I are not that disimiliar in personality. Do I want snow, yes, but I just don't see it for most of sne on tday (adv level min) My assertions are never unreasonable, but folks get turned off because my delivery is so caustic in nature. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I'm not; when there is a real threat, I'll be all over it.....again, name one time that I have been "negative" and it was unwarranted. Well when we talk about what models show..it's simply that. I can't help if people warp a discussion of a threat as 3-6" of snow. I share your thoughts for the coast, but at the same time, being 6 days out, I'm not gonna rule out some sort of wintry precip for you or even me. Is it likely to happen, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Wait until Ray gets 3" on T-day and he's looking at cirrus in Claremont NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 You are just as realistic as I am and you know that 18z run is worthless, but you just don't piss on dreams with reckless abandon like I do. lol Haha this is signature quote worthy... I'll admit I'm impressed with the trends today regarding Turkey Day... I really truly believed it was a rainstorm for everyone but maybe the tides are turning. The 1/2-1" of snow I had this morning helped my attitude as well, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Well when we talk about what models show..it's simply that. I can't help if people warp a discussion of a threat as 3-6" of snow. I share your thoughts for the coast, but at the same time, being 6 days out, I'm not gonna rule out some sort of wintry precip for you or even me. Is it likely to happen, no. Oh, I understand that......I sit here and claim that I can entirely rule it out just to tweak folks, but I know it can happen, sure....as unlikely as it is. I love getting folks aggravated like Kev, only he does it on the opposite end of the spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Wait until Ray gets 3" on T-day and he's looking at cirrus in Claremont NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 At an exytended happy hour. Looks like snow for the holiday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Negative......anyone who has been a here awhile knows that isn't true......all we have seen is FAIL since you have been here, so how would you know. I think the winter will be good, but it won't snow on tday....sorry. I'll concur that Ray is one of the most level-headed posters on here. It seems to come over time as a lot of newbies (and Kevin) get amped up over an 18z blizzard 7 days out... while if you've been here a while it seems you aknowledge it and move on, waiting for 48-72 hour time frame to even get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Oh, I understand that......I sit here and claim that I can entirely rule it out just to tweak folks, but I know it can happen, sure....as unlikely as it is. I love getting folks aggravated like Kev, only he does it on the opposite end of the spectrum. Rev Kev will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious snow storms. I'm getting that itch as well. I want to see my first inch. I've been pumped for this winter, ever since last winter..lol. While it may not be La Epic, I really don't think it will disappoint. Maybe I'll be horribly wrong..who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 At an exytended happy hour. Looks like snow for the holiday. Terribke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Rev Kev will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious snow storms. I'm getting that itch as well. I want to see my first inch. I've been pumped for this winter, ever since last winter..lol. While it may not be La Epic, I really don't think it will disappoint. Maybe I'll be horribly wrong..who knows. Please understand forum rules are against posting about religion on the wx side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I'll concur that Ray is one of the most level-headed posters on here. It seems to come over time as a lot of newbies (and Kevin) get amped up over an 18z blizzard 7 days out... while if you've been here a while it seems you aknowledge it and move on, waiting for 48-72 hour time frame to even get excited. That should be a rule. Don't get excited until 72 hours out. I think that will need to be applied heavily this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Oh, I understand that......I sit here and claim that I can entirely rule it out just to tweak folks, but I know it can happen, sure....as unlikely as it is. I love getting folks aggravated like Kev, only he does it on the opposite end of the spectrum. At an exytended happy hour. Looks like snow for the holiday. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 My assertions are never unreasonable, but folks get turned off because my delivery is so caustic in nature. lol sure they are there is a threat on turkey day.......what is the shot you see snow in wilmington i dunno ...........prob snow...15% rain 45% ...diddly squat 40% it's like when i was talking about snow with the big trough before the GTG ....nobody wanted to see the possibility....kind of like if it happens great ...if not fine....but that's NOT good enough for me.b/c some people who think that way... Basically ignore what i find to be a learning time /experience ....leading up to it with that attitude. ... .and any pespective is fine and one's own idea...but i will stick by what i see as realistic ...after all it did snow 2 inches in many areas in ct.....and W and N RI. But most didn't want to talk about the shot and it was less then 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Please understand forum rules are against posting about religion on the wx side Didn't you see the sermon I wrote for him? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I'll concur that Ray is one of the most level-headed posters on here. It seems to come over time as a lot of newbies (and Kevin) get amped up over an 18z blizzard 7 days out... while if you've been here a while it seems you aknowledge it and move on, waiting for 48-72 hour time frame to even get excited. Thanks, but I think Kev is as well.....its an act with him; he knows his sh** as well as any hobbyist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 I don't feel like scrolling... How did Euro ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 LOL I was thinking that too... Kev couldn't have posted that at a better time haha He's fully expecting 3-6" next Thursday already... maybe now he'll take your bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 sure they are there is a threat on turkey day.......what is the shot you see snow in wilmington i dunno ...........prob snow...15% rain 45% ...diddly squat 40% it's like when i was talking about snow with the big trough before the GTG ....nobody wanted to see the possibility....kind of like if it happens great ...if not fine....but that's NOT good enough for me.b/c some people who think that way... Basically ignore what i find to be a learning time /experience ....leading up to it with that attitude. ... .and any pespective is fine and one's own idea...but i will stick by what i see as realistic ...after all it did snow 2 inches in many areas in ct.....and W and N RI. But most didn't want to talk about the shot and it was less then 48 hours out. I will give you credit for that and I was wrong on that one. I dnt think I have a 15% chance though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Didn't you see the sermon I wrote for him? I want the t-shirt Maineseminole designed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 Thanks, but I think Kev is as well.....its an act with him; he knows his Gibbs sh** as well as any hobbyist. oops... a lil typo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 sure they are there is a threat on turkey day.......what is the shot you see snow in wilmington i dunno ...........prob snow...15% rain 45% ...diddly squat 40% it's like when i was talking about snow with the big trough before the GTG ....nobody wanted to see the possibility....kind of like if it happens great ...if not fine....but that's NOT good enough for me.b/c some people who think that way... Basically ignore what i find to be a learning time /experience ....leading up to it with that attitude. ... .and any pespective is fine and one's own idea...but i will stick by what i see as realistic ...after all it did snow 2 inches in many areas in ct.....and W and N RI. But most didn't want to talk about the shot and it was less then 48 hours out. This is the beauty of the forum though... you can discuss threats and are entitled to your own opinion. Sometimes my problem is separating the difference between who is just "discussing" the potential for snow verses those that are "forecasting" actual snow to fall. A lot of times people on here will post that they think it will snow and XYZ reason is why it will snow... yet if they were put on the spot to operationally forecast, they are much more reserved with regards to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 19, 2010 Share Posted November 19, 2010 It could happen tday, some sort of frontrunning lp advancing east across se canada could lower heights enough across new england, se ridge is nudged just far enough south that the boundary drapes across the northern ma and a series of lp advance east along that boundary. Would the cold be shallow or thick enough to produce some light snow, or would it be more of a cold light rain/ip/just inland ice event? Who knows it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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