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Pattern Change thread


ORH_wxman

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ec ens don't look as bad as the op in the long range. maintain a lot more troughing over the NE...at least through day 10.

Yeah I do not see a significant difference at all from 00z. In fact, the 12z trended a little higher with heights up by nw Canada. They hint at split flow along the west coast of the US. That's a good thing to have with a west nao block in place as it allows for s/w's to possibly phase. It's also got that secondary shot of colder air coming south after hr 300. It's also trying to hint at something during that 12/2-12/3 time frame..give or take a day. It looks like a ctrl/srn plains low.

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when do you think wa wa will open? early dec? lets lay a nice foot of mashed potatoes down and melt it to 6 inches of rock.....then champagne powder...ha

They claim to be shooting for Nov 26th (day after T-day)

I'm sure they will get at least 1 or 2 trails open for that... Keep watching the webcams...

The lights at the mountain were on last night. Casts a glow out my back windows. No snowmaking, though.

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typhoon tip had said about a week ago how the GFS was outperforming the euro in the longer range D5-D8 so i am happy to see the way the gfs is trending .

looks cool on wednesday as CF slides thru early....then sn- late overnite sn- continuing thru thur nite...(spotty)....then coldest air of season in lockdown mode thru end of run (tuesday) with some shots of short waves amplifying over that time frame.

good trend is my friend.

MRG heavy heavy winter on it's way.

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He dropped his BB shouting "Alleluia! Praise the Weenie" and it fell in his toilet. Now he just has his ADP laptop that has a Phishing block on it.

White T-day back in the works?

dave looks like weenies are rising on the trend......i would like to also hear wether will thinks there a cooling trend for t-giving or just "noise" out this far

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typhoon tip had said about a week ago how the GFS was outperforming the euro in the longer range D5-D8 so i am happy to see the way the gfs is trending .

looks cool on wednesday as CF slides thru early....then sn- late overnite sn- continuing thru thur nite...(spotty)....then coldest air of season in lockdown mode thru end of run (tuesday) with some shots of short waves amplifying over that time frame.

good trend is my friend.

MRG heavy heavy winter on it's way.

Well I think from within 96-120 hrs, the euro is still king. However, sometimes the gfs hints at a trend or picks up something, but never quite gets the final solution correct until within 24 hrs or so. The euro though, will eventually gravitate to the proper solution. In other words, sometimes the gfs sniffs it out, but the euro goes in and steals the show.

Of course I'm not saying this is applicable here, but something I noticed before.

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You are just as realistic as I am and you know that 18z run is worthless, but you just don't piss on dreams with reckless abandon like I do. lol

i think you have gotten so comfortable with the i'm not gonna get my hopes up on a model run out this far (or trend)......kind of like a GF doesn't trust guys after gettin burned bad........that i'm not so sure it's realist......maybe half realist thru a pessimist lens......perhaps an alter personality of CT RAIN manifested.

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You are just as realistic as I am and you know that 18z run is worthless, but you just don't piss on dreams with reckless abandon like I do. lol

Well I know how mother nature can serve up some humble pie too. Sure it's the gfs, but I would not say some wintry weather is impossible for most of sne, just unlikely as of now. I don't hold any emotional investment into this other than checking out the runs and seeing what they do. I'd keep my eye on it for the interior as of now.

If we see these huge gradients this winter, it's gonna be one hell of a struggle for the models.

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Well I know how mother nature can serve up some humble pie too. Sure it's the gfs, but I would not say some wintry weather is impossible for most of sne, just unlikely as of now. I don't hold any emotional investment into this other than checking out the runs and seeing what they do. I'd keep my eye on it for the interior as of now.

If we see these huge gradients this winter, it's gonna be one hell of a struggle for the models.

After looking at my schedule, I take that back. I'll have the east coast terminals next week.

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i think you have gotten so comfortable with the i'm not gonna get my hopes up on a model run out this far (or trend)......kind of like a GF doesn't trust guys after gettin burned bad........that i'm not so sure it's realist......maybe half realist thru a pessimist lens......perhaps an alter personality of CT RAIN manifested.

Many are snake bitten after last year.

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