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Pattern Change thread


ORH_wxman

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"The path of the righteous weenie is beset on all snow events and by the inequities of the selfish and warminista thoughts of evil energy mets. Blessed is he, who in the name of snow and good will, sheperds the weenies through the dark times of torches. For he is truly his weenie's keeper and the finder of lost weenies. And I will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious snow storms, those who attempt to poison and destroy my snowpack. And you will know I am rev kev, when I lay my weenie upon you."

Your in charge of writing all the scriptures........

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The evil moderator is going to smite us if this thread doesn't remain pattern change related.

Yeah, We need to keep this one on task, It will be interesting to see what models at 12z show, If they continue with a more progressive theme then trying to wrap up a bomb in the great lakes

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Still looks like it could be interesting for nne next week, but cold rain for most. Like Will said, the 00z euro ensembles warm, but 12z becomes an ice box again. laugh.gif It looks like the warming at the end of the run is probably due to low pressure moving into New England, but then the cold air looks like it builds behind it across Canada.

Like I said, call me neg., but when push came to shove no one would take the bet.....good idea. :lol:

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Like I said, call me neg., but when push came to shove no one would take the bet.....good idea. :lol:

Well for sne, that's a tough one. I could see the classic areas north of Rt 2(orh county) through sw nh have frozen for a time as of now. You and I..and most of sne...forget it. Unless of course things dramatically change, but I'm focused on post Thanksgiving.

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Thelocals up here talk about Feb69 with reverence. I am friends with the town road agent who plows town roads. He said fully 5 ft fell in that feb 69 storm and he's never seen anything like it since. Last Jan when for a little while at least, it looked like the retrograder was going to be a big dea,sl he aid the state in a planning meeting told them it would be potentially a multi day storm comparable to Feb 69. He asked me if that was really going to happen. I said "you need to talk to Tip".

This guy loves snow and I had to let him down gently a couple of days later.

Feb '69 is the best streatch for my area, as well.

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Well for sne, that's a tough one. I could see the classic areas north of Rt 2(orh county) through sw nh have frozen for a time as of now. You and I..and most of sne...forget it. Unless of course things dramatically change, but I'm focused on post Thanksgiving.

At least the Euro still has an impressive cold shot. I could see the Thanksgiving storm becoming a bit more interesting for elevated areas.

I'd like to see some storminess start to show on the Euro for after turkey day.... and not just way out to sea but we'll see.

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Well for sne, that's a tough one. I could see the classic areas north of Rt 2(orh county) through sw nh have frozen for a time as of now. You and I..and most of sne...forget it. Unless of course things dramatically change, but I'm focused on post Thanksgiving.

Apparently is isn't that tough because no one will wager the $20. :lol:

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06z GFS ensemble mean doesnt agree with the changes on op at all which is good at least. The GFS op goes crazy with retrogressing the Baffin Island ridge and bridges that ridge with west coast ridging which would ultimately torch Canada and close off our connection to the arctic, with every s/w not amplifying until well offshore.

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Apparently is isn't that tough because no one will wager the $20. :lol:

I meant more in the way of advisory stuff. I wouldn't wager at this point, but in those areas I mentioned..I could see a few hours of frozen..especially just over the border. For now, it isn't a big deal across sne. We'll see how it goes. If it trends any warmer, then forget any frozen. I'd be a little concerned way up by interior Maine.

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I meant more in the way of advisory stuff. I wouldn't wager at this point, but in those areas I mentioned..I could see a few hours of frozen..especially just over the border. For now, it isn't a big deal across sne. We'll see how it goes. If it trends any warmer, then forget any frozen. I'd be a little concerned way up by interior Maine.

That is what I mean, too.......I agree, NNE deal.

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That is what I mean, too.......I agree, NNE deal.

Any frozen crap will be a big deal, so I'm sure advisories would be posted in situations where they otherwise would not be, given how sensitive this day is wrt traveling. I'd still leave the door open for nw mass and sw nh given we're 6 days out, but yeah this is more for nne I think. It will be interesting to see if 12z tries to sneak some strung out piece of garbage again.

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how so?

The blocking low is further NE and weaker, so that doesn't help us at all. Then also there's more energy in the vortex over central Canada, such that rather than on the 12z run where the disturbance became cut off to some extent from this vortex, the disturbance on the 00z run breaks really far west, and it looks like we get some overrunning rain followed by a frontal passage.

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Any frozen crap will be a big deal, so I'm sure advisories would be posted in situations where they otherwise would not be, given how sensitive this day is wrt traveling. I'd still leave the door open for nw mass and sw nh given we're 6 days out, but yeah this is more for nne I think. It will be interesting to see if 12z tries to sneak some strung out piece of garbage again.

certainly the best chance for something more interesting with respect to frozen precip for parts of SNE.

the strung out piece of crap solution was on the table for a quite a while prior to the euro and ggem going gangbusters with the energy hanging back out west.

i definitely wouldn't toss that solution out the window yet given the time frame and instability of the pattern.

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The blocking low is further NE and weaker, so that doesn't help us at all. Then also there's more energy in the vortex over central Canada, such that rather than on the 12z run where the disturbance became cut off to some extent from this vortex, the disturbance on the 00z run breaks really far west, and it looks like we get some overrunning rain followed by a frontal passage.

you are talking about turkey day?

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Any frozen crap will be a big deal, so I'm sure advisories would be posted in situations where they otherwise would not be, given how sensitive this day is wrt traveling. I'd still leave the door open for nw mass and sw nh given we're 6 days out, but yeah this is more for nne I think. It will be interesting to see if 12z tries to sneak some strung out piece of garbage again.

I hope we get some up here even if Im not here. It would be nice to get a solid snow up on the board. I wont be too bummed out that I missed it since Ill be home tonight but itd be nice to come back to BA with snow on the ground. Boston probably wont see first plowable till 12/10-12/20 timeframe which is normal. Anything earlier would be anomalous
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