Pattern Change thread

[WeatherX]

Good.....I really enjoyed hanging with you both....fun times.

That was a good night. Worth the trip to meet all of you guys!

[ORH_wxman]

I'll be lucky if I even see that this winter.

[weatherwiz]

I need a combo like 1992-1993/1993-1994 or 2004-2005/2005-2006.

[40/70 Benchmark]

What a sick fetish Will has for that pic of his crusted over, March 2001 snowbank.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Ruh roh....tube socks is in da house.....

[weatherwiz]

That photo is just absolutely sick...I may never see something like that down here.

[nzucker]

ECM has some brutal cold at 0z but the pattern just doesn't want to stick around as the GoA low starts to increase heights across the CONUS. It honestly looks a little bit too progressive given the strength of the NAO block, but I guess it's a possibility if that's the period in which the Niña is strengthening and we have the PV returning to Siberia. The Euro really seems to be waffling on whether we're going to have the GoA low stall further west and create a big +PNA and set off a long-term favorable pattern, or if the GoA low will intensify and get closer to the coast and merge into a -PNA/+EPO type of look. Still lots of uncertainty with the Pacific that will take a while to figure out considering all the players on the field.

[WeatherX]

Ruh roh....tube socks is in da house.....

[ORH_wxman]

What a sick fetish Will has for that pic of his crusted over, March 2001 snowbank.

You gotta admit that was one sick snow pack that developed here that month...I've post plenty of pics from that same vantage point and none of them come remotely close to that.

What a year that was. Obviously you had a "merely" above average season with like 75" or whatever it was. But pretty awesome. Feb/Mar 2001 is to my area what Feb 1969 was to yours.

[40/70 Benchmark]

You gotta admit that was one sick snow pack that developed here that month...I've post plenty of pics from that same vantage point and none of them come remotely close to that.

What a year that was. Obviously you had a "merely" above average season with like 75" or whatever it was. But pretty awesome. Feb.Mar 2001 is to my area what Feb 1969 was to yours.

Sick, sick, sick....

[nzucker]

You gotta admit that was one sick snow pack that developed here that month...I've post plenty of pics from that same vantage point and none of them come remotely close to that.

What a year that was. Obviously you had a "merely" above average season with like 75" or whatever it was. But pretty awesome. Feb.Mar 2001 is to my area what Feb 1969 was to yours.

2000-01 was a beautiful winter down here, too. Brutally cold December with the Millenium Storm and then another foot snowstorm in March 2001. Overall had a very consistent snowpack and tons of arctic air to play with. Its greatness was also magnified by the putrid nature of the three winters that preceded it.

[WeatherX]

ECM has some brutal cold at 0z but the pattern just doesn't want to stick around as the GoA low starts to increase heights across the CONUS. It honestly looks a little bit too progressive given the strength of the NAO block, but I guess it's a possibility if that's the period in which the Niña is strengthening and we have the PV returning to Siberia. The Euro really seems to be waffling on whether we're going to have the GoA low stall further west and create a big +PNA and set off a long-term favorable pattern, or if the GoA low will intensify and get closer to the coast and merge into a -PNA/+EPO type of look. Still lots of uncertainty with the Pacific that will take a while to figure out considering all the players on the field.

But you have to admit if this happens, it's damn impressive...and look at how far south this cold shot makes it....all hope and conjecture now but....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Douglas Simonian!!!

[ORH_wxman]

Sick, sick, sick....

A snowfall map of that winter would look pretty interesting. 46" at KBOS and 102.1" at KORH...but then going up to 160" in extreme N ORH county toward AFN. One of those special winters for that region. We got in on most of it here, but it was even better up there. Probably 25 miles south of here got what you did....it was basically that zone N of the MA pike, W of 495, and SW of CON that got hammered nonstop that year.

'76-'77 is another weasel winter where your area beat out a lot of other traditional spots. I think you even had as much snow if not more than Ashburnham. That winter was a dud to the south despite its frigid conditions.

[40/70 Benchmark]

A snowfall map of that winter would look pretty interesting. 46" at KBOS and 102.1" at KORH...but then going up to 160" in extreme N ORH county toward AFN. One of those special winters for that region. We got in on most of it here, but it was even better up there. Probably 25 miles south of here got what you did....it was basically that zone N of the MA pike, W of 495, and SW of CON that got hammered nonstop that year.

'76-'77 is another weasel winter where your area beat out a lot of other traditional spots. I think you even had as much snow if not more than Ashburnham. That winter was a dud to the south despite its frigid conditions.

Miller B-East year.

[Dsnowx53]

Douglas Simonian!!!

Raymond S!!!

It's gonna snow!! Sometime soon!...I think....

[ORH_wxman]

Miller B-East year.

Yeah you had nearly 100" of snow that year while PVD only had 46-47" and NYC was like 24" or something. Obviously some gradient going on there.

[nzucker]

But you have to admit if this happens, it's damn impressive...and look at how far south this cold shot makes it....all hope and conjecture now but....

Oh yeah, most of the model runs have been showing a sick cold shot after the Thanksgiving storm; I'm just excited to feel the NW winds rip and finally have a proper winter night here. It's definitely a pretty brutal airmass although not quite of the magnitude of what's been going on in Montana/Wyoming and the Northern Plains lately since the PV is departing Canada and leaving the airmass somewhat modified. I just think that in order to have a snow threat, we need the cold to be consistent, not just intense. It's not that impressive to see a big cold shot modeled in a La Niña winter, since we always seem to get some good arctic air when we have a Niña in control...the problem in Niñas is keeping it around to set up a decent storm track instead of just having the cutter, cold, cutter pattern.

A snowfall map of that winter would look pretty interesting. 46" at KBOS and 102.1" at KORH...but then going up to 160" in extreme N ORH county toward AFN. One of those special winters for that region. We got in on most of it here, but it was even better up there. Probably 25 miles south of here got what you did....it was basically that zone N of the MA pike, W of 495, and SW of CON that got hammered nonstop that year.

'76-'77 is another weasel winter where your area beat out a lot of other traditional spots. I think you even had as much snow if not more than Ashburnham. That winter was a dud to the south despite its frigid conditions.

I think we even had as much as Boston, or even a bit more, during the 00-01 winter. That's not so impressive for them...I guess they didn't really benefit from either of the big systems that year to the extent that I cashed in from December 2000 and you cashed in from March 2001.

76-77 was a brutally cold but dry winter for much of the Northeast, but eastern New England managed to get buried. Of course the lake effect belts did best with one station in NY near Lake Ontario reporting around 470" snow for the winter...it might have been Montague, NY. One of the meteorologists has pictures from his childhood of the 76-77 winter in the Ontario LES belts, and it is literally insanity with snow stacked as high as traffic lights. The plowing crews just gave up given the rural nature of the area and the intensity of snowfall that winter. Those places average 200-250" but approaching 500" is just obscene.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Oh yeah, most of the model runs have been showing a sick cold shot after the Thanksgiving storm; I'm just excited to feel the NW winds rip and finally have a proper winter night here. It's definitely a pretty brutal airmass although not quite of the magnitude of what's been going on in Montana/Wyoming and the Northern Plains lately since the PV is departing Canada and leaving the airmass somewhat modified. I just think that in order to have a snow threat, we need the cold to be consistent, not just intense. It's not that impressive to see a big cold shot modeled in a La Niña winter, since we always seem to get some good arctic air when we have a Niña in control...the problem in Niñas is keeping it around to set up a decent storm track instead of just having the cutter, cold, cutter pattern.

I think we even had as much as Boston, or even a bit more, during the 00-01 winter. That's not so impressive for them...I guess they didn't really benefit from either of the big systems that year to the extent that I cashed in from December 2000 and you cashed in from March 2001.

76-77 was a brutally cold but dry winter for much of the Northeast, but eastern New England managed to get buried. Of course the lake effect belts did best with one station in NY near Lake Ontario reporting around 470" snow for the winter...it might have been Montague, NY. One of the meteorologists has pictures from his childhood of the 76-77 winter in the Ontario LES belts, and it is literally insanity with snow stacked as high as traffic lights. The plowing crews just gave up given the rural nature of the area and the intensity of snowfall that winter. Those places average 200-250" but approaching 500" is just obscene.

I'd give almost anything.....anyway, GN.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One final note: ski MRG loves big, big weenies.

[ORH_wxman]

I think we even had as much as Boston, or even a bit more, during the 00-01 winter. That's not so impressive for them...I guess they didn't really benefit from either of the big systems that year to the extent that I cashed in from December 2000 and you cashed in from March 2001.

76-77 was a brutally cold but dry winter for much of the Northeast, but eastern New England managed to get buried. Of course the lake effect belts did best with one station in NY near Lake Ontario reporting around 470" snow for the winter...it might have been Montague, NY. One of the meteorologists has pictures from his childhood of the 76-77 winter in the Ontario LES belts, and it is literally insanity with snow stacked as high as traffic lights. The plowing crews just gave up given the rural nature of the area and the intensity of snowfall that winter. Those places average 200-250" but approaching 500" is just obscene.

Those weakish Ninos tend to do that. They tend to still remain quite nothern stream dominant, but with a +PNA that normally comes with them, they amplify a lot of clippers and turn them into miller Bs. '68-'69 didn't have a +PNA, but it still crushed eastern NE because of the extreme block in Greenland.

[ski MRG]

One final note: ski MRG loves big, big weenies.

Save it for the Banter thread Ray. I have grown fond of you weenies but I wouldn't call it love.lol

[nzucker]

Those weakish Ninos tend to do that. They tend to still remain quite nothern stream dominant, but with a +PNA that normally comes with them, they amplify a lot of clippers and turn them into miller Bs. '68-'69 didn't have a +PNA, but it still crushed eastern NE because of the extreme block in Greenland.

How was 69-70 in eastern New England? I believe snowfall was near average for NYC with well below average temperatures, especially in January. It was a weak Niño.

77-78 crushed everyone to some extent but your area made out best. Same thing in 04-05 with good snowfall from NYC north, but the big positive anomalies to the northeast over LI, Cape Cod, and the rest of eastern NE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

How was 69-70 in eastern New England? I believe snowfall was near average for NYC with well below average temperatures, especially in January. It was a weak Niño.

77-78 crushed everyone to some extent but your area made out best. Same thing in 04-05 with good snowfall from NYC north, but the big positive anomalies to the northeast over LI, Cape Cod, and the rest of eastern NE.

74.6"

[weatherwiz]

GFS develops a very nice +PNA but the ensemble mean is more neutral to slightly negative. Meanwhile it also develops somewhat of a +EPO but the ensemble mean really likes the idea of a +EPO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Save it for the Banter thread Ray. I have grown fond of you weenies but I wouldn't call it love.lol

LOL Nite, Pete.

[nzucker]

Do you have ECM ENS, Will?

[ORH_wxman]

How was 69-70 in eastern New England? I believe snowfall was near average for NYC with well below average temperatures, especially in January. It was a weak Niño.

77-78 crushed everyone to some extent but your area made out best. Same thing in 04-05 with good snowfall from NYC north, but the big positive anomalies to the northeast over LI, Cape Cod, and the rest of eastern NE.

You can't find a weak Nino that was bad in eastern SNE. I'm sure there will be one some day though...in fact '79-'80 was nearly a weak Nino that really sucked here, but it didn't qualify so the record is still clean.

'69-'70 was a very good winter, but nothing that stands out. Most places were "just" 15-30% above average here and it was very cold too so the snow pack stuck around...it would grade as an A- winter I think in my book.

Boston had over 50" that winter and I think Ray had something int he 70s....we had something in the 70s too.

[NJwinter23]

Oh yeah, most of the model runs have been showing a sick cold shot after the Thanksgiving storm; I'm just excited to feel the NW winds rip and finally have a proper winter night here. It's definitely a pretty brutal airmass although not quite of the magnitude of what's been going on in Montana/Wyoming and the Northern Plains lately since the PV is departing Canada and leaving the airmass somewhat modified. I just think that in order to have a snow threat, we need the cold to be consistent, not just intense. It's not that impressive to see a big cold shot modeled in a La Niña winter, since we always seem to get some good arctic air when we have a Niña in control...the problem in Niñas is keeping it around to set up a decent storm track instead of just having the cutter, cold, cutter pattern.

I think we even had as much as Boston, or even a bit more, during the 00-01 winter. That's not so impressive for them...I guess they didn't really benefit from either of the big systems that year to the extent that I cashed in from December 2000 and you cashed in from March 2001.

76-77 was a brutally cold but dry winter for much of the Northeast, but eastern New England managed to get buried. Of course the lake effect belts did best with one station in NY near Lake Ontario reporting around 470" snow for the winter...it might have been Montague, NY. One of the meteorologists has pictures from his childhood of the 76-77 winter in the Ontario LES belts, and it is literally insanity with snow stacked as high as traffic lights. The plowing crews just gave up given the rural nature of the area and the intensity of snowfall that winter. Those places average 200-250" but approaching 500" is just obscene.

Yeah but thats fake snow so it doesn't count...

[ORH_wxman]

Do you have ECM ENS, Will?

They are only out to 60 hours right now....it will be another 20-30 min before they go into the time we care about.