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Pattern Change thread


ORH_wxman

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<br />I'm going to have to start deleting posts in the pattern change thread again<br />

I think things are jelling better for next week, surprise number 2? Iknow you have no confidence but to me it makes sense that LPPops in that pattern. Could be an interesting week. By the way skin mobile cooks up my replies.

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Yeah, I have no confidence in that potential Friday event...I do have some confidence in a transient cold shot next weekend...then it moderates some before Turkey Day...however, I have no idea how much it moderates. There will definitely be a gradient initially, and if it holds tough, there could be a lot more low level cold holding tough than is currently progged. The strong western trough though makes me lean toward at least one torch day though before the FROPA brings in the cold stuff around Thanksgiving and definitely the weekend that follows.

yeah it's the strength and subsequent handling of the back-to-back lows moving into the newfoundland region that might really be tough on guidance for a while longer. the theme you just described seems like a good overall background to work off of. i think we are still going to see some big swings from run-to-run in the thurs. to turkey day stretch.

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I will go out on hunch I by no means have a clue what I am doing but, why not. This Friday will be a no go for many. However if you are far enough north and high enough in alt. good luck. Now with a good batch of cold air headed into the northeast we could get some nice winter weather for everybody in newengland. That being said we have remeber

1. Might we have a slight warming pre thanksgiving (might not be a big deal, so long as we dont waste a storm with warmer air.)

2.Can we get some precip? probaly, could have some nice chances.

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I will go out on hunch I by no means have a clue what I am doing but, why not. This Friday will be a no go for many. However if you are far enough north and high enough in alt. good luck. Now with a good batch of cold air headed into the northeast we could get some nice winter weather for everybody in newengland. That being said we have remeber

heard NBC30 is looking for a new met

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Still looks good post Turkey Day imo. We might have to go through a day or two where Kevin straps on the Santa thong.

yeah patience is going to be key. if it were later in the season that horrendous -PNA situation wouldn't matter quite as much in this kind of set-up because we'd be averaging out near or just above normal...and that doesn't matter as much in january, plus we'd probably be more likely to see some low level cold seeping down. in november this set-up just means 40s and 50s.

you can really see all the major teleconnections f-ing with the models right now too.

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yeah patience is going to be key. if it were later in the season that horrendous -PNA situation wouldn't matter quite as much in this kind of set-up because we'd be averaging out near or just above normal...and that doesn't matter as much in january, plus we'd probably be more likely to see some low level cold seeping down. in november this set-up just means 40s and 50s.

you can really see all the major teleconnections f-ing with the models right now too.

LOL no kidding. Major ridging both on the Atlantic and Pacific side, and throw in a trough over on the west coast. I'm not expecting any real cold Thanksgiving, but we will have a transient shot of cold next weekend. Nothing really new to talk about today. The Canadian ensembles fwiw are not all that cold, with a weak -nao and GOA low.

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