OKpowdah Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I really would not get all bent out of shape about Thanksgiving. If anything falls as frozen, treat it as a bonus. Lets look forward to the following week and all the fun that could be had. We hope. It's nice seeing obvious signs of a very promising pattern continuing into at least the first week of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 18 gfs is a world of pain. Yeah---sleet for someone in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 18 gfs is a world of pain. yuck, ends pretty crappy even for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 yuck, ends pretty crappy even for me By monday this thing cuts west of detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 There would probably be a period of pretty good zr/ip even in nrn orh county if the euro verified. Exactly...and given the setup and players on the field..the only way for this to trend is south and colder.. some don't seem to understand that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Exactly...and given the setup and players on the field..the only way for this to trend is south and colder.. some don't seem to understand that Stronger secondary will help also with wrapping in the cold air........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostman Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 18Z GFS is less progressive witht he trough. Looks more like the euro .. with maybe a coastal ..after significant WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostman Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Stronger secondary will help also with wrapping in the cold air........ but no high to the north ..and with unfrozen snowless ground ... any cold air will be scoured out pretty quick .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Exactly...and given the setup and players on the field..the only way for this to trend is south and colder.. some don't seem to understand that Are you taking Ray's bet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 WHy is anyone analyzing the 18zGFS 7 days out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 18z GFS does not show up well for the Nov 28-30th period, I would take it with a grain of salt after the 26th storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 WHy is anyone analyzing the 18zGFS 7 days out lol Because its been better than the euro at that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 but no high to the north ..and with unfrozen snowless ground ... any cold air will be scoured out pretty quick .. True, Different game if we had a high over ft kent or quebec.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 WHy is anyone analyzing the 18zGFS 7 days out lol I get 3.3" of snow, and you get 1" of sleet. Rip and read. Moving on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Exactly how I have been characterizing it.....all rain here on the cp and maybe some front end ice in the interior, with perhaps a touch of snow across the Berks. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKGIVING...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THURSDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF CAPE COD BY 18Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST AND MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING THE LOW FROM IL/IN AREA NORTH TO JUST OFF THE TIP OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z FRIDAY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PA. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF LATE FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Because its been better than the euro at that time :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Even the GFS gives a period of sn then probably heavy sleet to areas near ans especially north of ORH into sw nh next week. This is IF IF this track happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah, 18z GFS looks more like the Euro. No big cold high to the north should be rain for most... starts as SN/PL/ZR in Central NE and even there goes over to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Ginx... point noted, haha. That seems odd though as there have been storms cutting west of us. They may have originated in another area (Ohio Valley, midwest, etc) but they definitely have tracked a primary west of us at times over the past month. I do agree though that there has been some east coast cyclogenesis, but as far as storm tracks, I still think the primaries have been heading west. Either way, good point and I'll concede because its 7 days away, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm not excited about T-day event...maybe it will trend colder, but there isn't an overwhelming reason it has to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKGIVING...PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS THE 12Z GFS IS INDICATES LOW PRESSURE MOVING FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT 00Z THURSDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF CAPE COD BY 18Z THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE 12Z ECMWF IS FURTHER WEST AND MUCH SLOWER...BRINGING THE LOW FROM IL/IN AREA NORTH TO JUST OFF THE TIP OF LOWER MICHIGAN BY 00Z FRIDAY WHILE A SECONDARY LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN PA. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF LATE FOR STORM SYSTEMS TO REMAIN CENTERED WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...THE ECMWF IS PREFERRED. I think that we are like a decade beyond using persistence like this. There's something called a pattern *change* that will probably make this a moot point. Also, in the late autumn there is often a general tendency for consecutive storm tracks to shift east as snow pack builds over the northern plains and the baroclinic zone shifts SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm not excited about T-day event...maybe it will trend colder, but there isn't an overwhelming reason it has to. rev kev said that would be the only direction it would trend? Im confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah, 18z GFS looks more like the Euro. No big cold high to the north should be rain for most... starts as SN/PL/ZR in Central NE and even there goes over to rain. I know some are saying its a long way out but that solution doesn't look all that wrong given the players on the field. You know the chances of a snow/ice event are low when even Coastalwx and Will are saying don't bother investing too much energy into that system... its the cold air the comes afterward that matters. All we need is Tip to come in here and engineer a solution that brings 10-20" to most of New England... and if anyone can find a way that it could happen, Tip can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'm not excited about T-day event...maybe it will trend colder, but there isn't an overwhelming reason it has to. No good high to the north doesn't get me too excited. Maybe some snow and pingers before we go to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I know some are saying its a long way out but that solution doesn't look all that wrong given the players on the field. You know the chances of a snow/ice event are low when even Coastalwx and Will are saying don't bother investing too much energy into that system... its the cold air the comes afterward that matters. All we need is Tip to come in here and engineer a solution that brings 10-20" to most of New England... and if anyone can find a way that it could happen, Tip can. Yeah I'd say odds are definitely favoring this to be a no big deal storm for most of us... maybe some fun once you get up in C VT and C NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 rev kev said that would be the only direction it would trend? Im confused. Well his job is to say it will trend snowier/colder regardless of objective analysis. I'm not saying that snow/ice isn't possible out of this system, but I'd probably lean toward mostly rain at this juncture. I like the pattern behind it better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I think that we are like a decade beyond using persistence like this. There's something called a pattern *change* that will probably make this a moot point. Also, in the late autumn there is often a general tendency for consecutive storm tracks to shift east as snow pack builds over the northern plains and the baroclinic zone shifts SE. I dont know... persistence won for the mid-Atlantic last season when multiple times people here were saying "pattern change" its time for these storms to start coming north. I definitely think there's still a use for persistence especially when talking about a system that's 7 days away and given that the atmosphere tends to repeat itself over and over until something major interrupts the atmospheric system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 No good high to the north doesn't get me too excited. Maybe some snow and pingers before we go to rain? Yeah there's actually a decent chance that many could see brief snow/sleet to begin, even if this tracks pretty far west, but I'd definitely lean mostly rain right now. I'm a bit intrigued by the icing potential in the interior if we can trend the secondary sfc reflection further SE...but I'm not exactly holding my breath about it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Well his job is to say it will trend snowier/colder regardless of objective analysis. I'm not saying that snow/ice isn't possible out of this system, but I'd probably lean toward mostly rain at this juncture. I like the pattern behind it better. I agree 100% and I would not rule out one more cutter behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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