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Pattern Change thread

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

LOL me too

Ray^No, its sound reasoing based upon the fact that the real cold air will not yet be here yet....it takes a hell of an anomalous antecedent airmass to prouduce a front ender outside of the Berks in Novie.

I love how you have shifted into a hypothetical gear....lol^ Ray

Looks pretty cold inland to me, icing is a big concern hypothetically that is.

Me pointing out a simialr pattern from last year is now hypothetical? Negative Nellie sometimes you got to think a little outside the box you have built around your imagination, would not take much for a secondary to pop here, nothing is set in stone.

The debate was surrounding snow, not ice....the 2ndary may allow some ice, NOT snow.

Its a similar pattern from last year, 2 weeks later in the season at a rather critical juncture of seasonal transition.

Good luck getting much SNE ice in Novie.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

is that out beyond 240 that you are talking about?

they certainly are chilly next weekend.

Yeah it hangs around until the 30th or so when heights rise a bit over the east. At the surface, it looks like it's trying to indicate low pressure troughs off the east coast and near the Great Lakes. Probably a signal for a couple of storms.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

LOL you told Rev Kev his highs would be in the 20's and that is regular old cold? Besides I am talking about heavy low level cold ya know the kind that causes Ice storms on Tday that you insisted last week would be mild and in the lower 50s region wide.

You're really getting to be worse than Kevin. I expected 50s Mon-Wed with a +6 departure. After that I was expecting a big push of cold of at least 3 or 4 days duration. Just wasn't sure why you're getting wood about "low level" cold when it looks cold through the whole atmosphere! This isn't going to be one of those cases with average 500mb heights and cold that seeps underneath it in the boundary layer... we're going to see heights crash and a good solid CAA pattern with a big trough carved out over the NEUS.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Yeah it hangs around until the 30th or so when heights rise a bit over the east. At the surface, it looks like it's trying to indicate low pressure troughs off the east coast and near the Great Lakes. Probably a signal for a couple of storms.

well one way or the other, be it a wfropa, a wave running along the gradient to our south or some s/w rounding the bend...i'm still optimistic that at least some of SNE gets an event between now and the first full weekend of december (whatever that weekend is the 4th?)

i like seeing that horrendous -PNA situation weaken

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

is that out beyond 240 that you are talking about?

they certainly are chilly next weekend.

Between 240 and 360 the Euro Ensemble mean really locks the -NAO in place and keeps us cold right through Friday 12/3. Definitely keeps the NAO ridging around much longer than the op run that was starting to damp it out by 240 hours.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

You're really getting to be worse than Kevin. I expected 50s Mon-Wed with a +6 departure. After that I was expecting a big push of cold of at least 3 or 4 days duration. Just wasn't sure why you're getting wood about "low level" cold when it looks cold through the whole atmosphere! This isn't going to be one of those cases with average 500mb heights and cold that seeps underneath it in the boundary layer... we're going to see heights crash and a good solid CAA pattern with a big trough carved out over the NEUS.

Kevin Wood??

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

well one way or the other, be it a wfropa, a wave running along the gradient to our south or some s/w rounding the bend...i'm still optimistic that at least some of SNE gets an event between now and the first full weekend of december (whatever that weekend is the 4th?)

i like seeing that horrendous -PNA situation weaken

Agree totally with this post. Nice to see the euro ensembles KEEP a +PNA. The 8-15 day period could be really cold around here with big negative departures if the ensembles are getting the idea better than the op run is.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

well one way or the other, be it a wfropa, a wave running along the gradient to our south or some s/w rounding the bend...i'm still optimistic that at least some of SNE gets an event between now and the first full weekend of december (whatever that weekend is the 4th?)

i like seeing that horrendous -PNA situation weaken

Agreed. It looks pretty good, and actually the cold tries to reload and charge se through Hudson Bay again...on both the gfs and euro. Height lower a little out west again at the end of the run, but a nice trough is carved out in the east. Pretty good signal that far out. Get the pattern set now, worry about details later should be the M.O.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

You're really getting to be worse than Kevin. I expected 50s Mon-Wed with a +6 departure. After that I was expecting a big push of cold of at least 3 or 4 days duration. Just wasn't sure why you're getting wood about "low level" cold when it looks cold through the whole atmosphere! This isn't going to be one of those cases with average 500mb heights and cold that seeps underneath it in the boundary layer... we're going to see heights crash and a good solid CAA pattern with a big trough carved out over the NEUS.

Wait a minute, you post in a thread saying i always say low level cold, throw potshots at me all the time and the you say this. Yea OK whatever. But I disagree on your synopsis above. Dropping it now but fair play is fair play.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Agree totally with this post. Nice to see the euro ensembles KEEP a +PNA. The 8-15 day period could be really cold around here with big negative departures if the ensembles are getting the idea better than the op run is.

tough to be picky this time of year. let's just get it cold.

the ec ens have been pretty lock solid with troughing over the GL/NE from turkey day onward. a good sign.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Wait a minute, you post in a thread saying i always say low level cold, throw potshots at me all the time and the you say this. Yea OK whatever. But I disagree on your synopsis above. Dropping it now but fair play is fair play.

I just don't understand the "low level cold" thing for us in this situation. Been posting that for like a week now!

Sure it's going to get cold but not with near average heights and bitter cold seeping out of Quebec!!!! Where's the huge high over Ontario?

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

tough to be picky this time of year. let's just get it cold.

the ec ens have been pretty lock solid with troughing over the GL/NE from turkey day onward. a good sign.

Yeah models were pretty solid today... especially with the GFS showing a legit winter threat on Thanksgiving for parts of New England

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CCPSUSuperstorm2010

CCPSUSuperstorm2010

Posted
Posted

i wouldn't worry.

i think your chances out in buffalo far exceed mine here. LOL.

I agree, KBUF looks a lot better given time of year.

Rare, but does happen. Pretty early in the season for oes on a wsw wind I think.

I agree, how much snow fell on Nantucket?

Yeah it hangs around until the 30th or so when heights rise a bit over the east. At the surface, it looks like it's trying to indicate low pressure troughs off the east coast and near the Great Lakes. Probably a signal for a couple of storms.

That is a very good sign. Key in the North Pacific Ocean is the ridge developing over the central Aleutian Islands come next week, around the 23rd.

well one way or the other, be it a wfropa, a wave running along the gradient to our south or some s/w rounding the bend...i'm still optimistic that at least some of SNE gets an event between now and the first full weekend of december (whatever that weekend is the 4th?)

i like seeing that horrendous -PNA situation weaken

I agree, lets get done with the - and neutral PNA, lets see a trend upward in the +PNA that has happened today. GLC on Wed/Thurs is a pretty good bet, whether or not the secondary occurs is gravy.

nice.

post-218-0-87067600-1290114007.gif

Wow, a little further west would be perfect.

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

I'm 46/28 right now so I'm hoping to see at least a couple of flakes drifting about - and I don't mean the derelicts in downtown Greenfield. ;)

i hope you see some flakes chris

went to pick up some ski gear today....just pricin things out. gonna get some older ski's and bindings...good shape thou for a good price....droppin a bit more on a solid pair of boots.

gettin pass to wa wa this weekend.....as a beginner and it being 40 minutes from house......will hit the slopes multiple times during the week day.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Wait a minute, you post in a thread saying i always say low level cold, throw potshots at me all the time and the you say this. Yea OK whatever. But I disagree on your synopsis above. Dropping it now but fair play is fair play.

Haha nothing like a long range threat of icy rain to bring out the best in all of us.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

Haha nothing like a long range threat of icy rain to bring out the best in all of us.

Yo Freak! its a thing between Ryan and I we do not really care, just bustin.

Hows the skinning? Lots of snowmaking ops now, with huge potential down the road. Que Ray for shoveling potential. I am going to be serious for once. I do not think all is lost yet with that monster LC, you should have the best shot if a secondary pops and cuts through the canal.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

And we're off..heavy heavy winter storm en route

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND/OR

THANKSGIVING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE CHALLENGING AT THIS

TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS WOULD FAVOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT ON THE

COASTAL PLAIN...BUT SOME SNOW/ICE WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE

INTERIOR

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cpickett79

cpickett79

Posted
Posted

Nice to be home posting on the laptop. This thing is going south ..way south Turkey day..no way it doesn't with that mega block. Atlantic trumps Pacific

not according to DT on your FB page. i told him he should attend your sermon and not let the flyin weenies hit his Azz on the way out

i'm puttin one foot back on the heavy heavy snow train ....lets get some consistency with that low placement it could be from montreal to knoxville.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

And we're off..heavy heavy winter storm en route

THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD

CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY AND/OR

THANKSGIVING. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS ALSO QUITE CHALLENGING AT THIS

TIME. RIGHT NOW THE MODELS WOULD FAVOR MAINLY A RAIN EVENT ON THE

COASTAL PLAIN...BUT SOME SNOW/ICE WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE

INTERIOR

:snowman::snowman::weight_lift:

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