dryslot Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 euro in da house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'll be in Claremont, NH....only thing that I don't like is they are in the CT river valley. 435' ASL, but there is a nearly 800' ridgeline right behind the house....may have to go for a hike. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Scooter... if you compare the 12z GFS to the 00z Euro you can sort of see what's going on. By 12z Wednesday they're pretty similar but the GFS sends a pretty strong s/w through southern Quebec (not there on the Euro) and that effectively creates some confluence behind it and damps the downstream ridge. Without the big downstream ridge and some confluence batting it down you get a more suppressed storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Scooter... if you compare the 12z GFS to the 00z Euro you can sort of see what's going on. By 12z Wednesday they're pretty similar but the GFS sends a pretty strong s/w through southern Quebec (not there on the Euro) and that effectively creates some confluence behind it and damps the downstream ridge. Without the big downstream ridge and some confluence batting it down you get a more suppressed storm track. Yeah I saw that...it's also not so pumped with the ridge out west. The gfs scenario did look kind of funky, which is making me all the more interested in the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah I saw that...it's also not so pumped with the ridge out west. The gfs scenario did look kind of funky, which is making me all the more interested in the euro. Yeah it's all about finding a way to keep the downstream ridge from going too crazy. If we can keep it flatter we can force the storm track south. Getting the big closed low off Newfoundland to retrograde south and west could be another way to do it without the GFS phantom shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah it's all about finding a way to keep the downstream ridge from going too crazy. If we can keep it flatter we can force the storm track south. Getting the big closed low off Newfoundland to retrograde south and west could be another way to do it without the GFS phantom shortwave. The euro at least made sense with the secondary crossing the Cape. Sure all the forcing was further nw with the primary, but just enough pva and the natural baroclinic zone along the coast, fired off the secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The euro at least made sense with the secondary crossing the Cape. Sure all the forcing was further nw with the primary, but just enough pva and the natural baroclinic zone along the coast, fired off the secondary. 00z Euro probably does have some wintry mix at the onset north of ORH into portions of NH and VT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 It looks to me , at least regarding the 12z gfs, most of the storm next Thu is sleet zr or rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 It looks to me , at least regarding the 12z gfs, most of the storm next Thu is sleet zr or rain. Yeah for most of us. Also remember a ripping easterly/northeasterly sfc wind will be unpleasant for most even back from the coastal plain. N NH and C VT have the most to gain from a set up like this unless it keeps trending south with the -NAO flexing its muscle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 What a broad trough on the euro. It's like it took the 00z solution ans just stretched it. Still too early to see the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 what an ice box over the northern plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 What a broad trough on the euro. It's like it took the 00z solution ans just stretched it. Still too early to see the outcome. Miller b maybe...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah for most of us. Also remember a ripping easterly/northeasterly sfc wind will be unpleasant for most even back from the coastal plain. N NH and C VT have the most to gain from a set up like this unless it keeps trending south with the -NAO flexing its muscle. Yeah, it's a great looking pattern, but looks too progressive. The cold air gets in when the precip is done. One thing that's interesting is that the s/w moving into the NW CONUS regions is the impetus for the 50/50 low on Monday. We'll have to watch that evolution along with the one at D5, actually retrogrades the PV back a bit. Makes sense if there's a massive NAO block like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 What a broad trough on the euro. It's like it took the 00z solution ans just stretched it. Still too early to see the outcome. I can't see the Euro, but it sounds exactly like what I was envisioning in the previous post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Yeah, it's a great looking pattern, but looks too progressive. The cold air gets in when the precip is done. One thing that's interesting is that the s/w moving into the NW CONUS regions is the impetus for the 50/50 low on Monday. We'll have to watch that evolution along with the one at D5, actually retrogrades the PV back a bit. Makes sense if there's a massive NAO block like that. The PV extends into Nova Scotia now and provides some confluence by hr 150. Trough axis is tilted sw-ne and is right along the front range. Big change from 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 what an ice box over the northern plains. Yeah no kidding... sub 498dm heights!!! It's going to be a struggle with a mammoth cold trough over the northern plains and a huge ridge that wants to build along the east coast but seems to be getting batted down more and more by the pseudo 50/50 low and the -NAO. Whatever forms could really be a powerhouse with all this energy lying around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The PV extends into Nova Scotia now and provides some confluence by hr 150. Trough axis is tilted sw-ne and is right along the front range. Big change from 00z. Wednesday just has a chilly look now with everything shunted south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Wednesday just has a chilly look now with everything shunted south. turkey day disaster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Wednesday just has a chilly look now with everything shunted south. Somebody in the Midwest is going to get crushed from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 The PV extends into Nova Scotia now and provides some confluence by hr 150. Trough axis is tilted sw-ne and is right along the front range. Big change from 00z. That trough in the Plains is so deep you have to think that it's going to win out... but then again we do have one helluva -NAO helping us out. FUN! We're going to see some real whacky solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Somebody in the Midwest is going to get crushed from this. Yeah it's like a loaded gun sounding. You know something big has got to give Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sounds like Dr No is stepping towards Dr Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sounds like Dr No is stepping towards Dr Yes LOL No... it's stepping toward Dr Cold Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Heavy heavy ice. for central and northern ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 hvy hvy warm front preceded by ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Wow , yeah 12z Euro has huge potential. looks like wf is way down near delmarva at hr 168, HOWEVER the 50/50 low is maybe a bit too far east. If it were January, I'd be a more excited after seeing the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sounds like Dr No is stepping towards Dr Yes There's just too much energy diving too far west. The -NAO and the 50/50 low are going to do their best but in all likelihood it won't be enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 Sounds like Dr No is stepping towards Dr Yes Dr no is Dr uh oh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 nice blizzard in the Great Lakes. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.