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Pattern Change thread


ORH_wxman

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You're right in that development took off when it got near and passed Nova Scotia. It was still a cold solution for the interior of Maine up through the crown. By cold I mean surface temps.

Yeah i was looking at where it intensified instead where it actually develops, 850's would support snow interior -4 -8 and surface temps were in the 30's coast looks like it would be rain with cement inland until you got into elevation...

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Given the massive -NAO ridge over Greenland it seems plausible that the GFS forecast for Thanksgiving isn't far fetched. The 12z GGEM looks like it holds some promise with a CAD signature showing up at 180 hours.

The gfs also wasn't as crazy with digging the trough so far south and sw too, which helped out. If that can lessen a little more, a much better outcome may happen.

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It's not the fact that it could be something like a coastal hugger, then cold, then coastal hugger again.....it's using a deterministic model at d10 and extrapolating afterwards. His ideas are as valid as anything, but I just don't understand extrapolating out an op model past d10.

You know when I call someone out for being too negative, thats probably a decent sign that they need to take a deep breath and reevaluate things.

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