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Pattern Change thread


ORH_wxman

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Congrats nne for snow, SW NH for ice.

I had posed that question to Will yesterday, The euro at the end of the run had showed a secondary develop in the GOM and asked if we got that sw to move further se instead digging into the mid west if we could get secondary development a little further south......

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I had posed that question to Will yesterday, The euro at the end of the run had showed a secondary develop in the GOM and asked if we got that sw to move further se instead digging into the mid west if we could get secondary development a little further south......

If the s/w in question was shunted further southeast, than yeah it could happen that way. The GFS has more confluence to the northeast, and is also less amplified with the ridge out west. Lastly it does not have a tightly wound vortmax like the euro has, hence why we don't see a monster primary low in the Lakes. We'll see what the euro does. The trend seems to be a little further south over the last couple of runs, but we are still a week out with an extremely volatile pattern.

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If the s/w in question was shunted further southeast, than yeah it could happen that way. The GFS has more confluence to the northeast, and is also less amplified with the ridge out west. Lastly it does not have a tightly wound vortmax like the euro has, hence why we don't see a monster primary low in the Lakes. We'll see what the euro does. The trend seems to be a little further south over the last couple of runs, but we are still a week out with an extremely volatile pattern.

I agree we are still a ways out but my thoughts were with as much blocking up stream as the models have been showing would it be tough to get a low to cut thru the great lakes? I would have thought it would have to cut further west for that to happen or to move further east with less amplification hence allowing secondary develop further south or even more of a swfe.....

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Yeah clipper swings thru on sunday, But this whole deal is still out in la la land, Going to need to see over the weekend if we can continue showing this scenario its a start but need more models to jump on board...

agreed. it's no better than looking at the 240 from dr. no and declaring us all screwed. probably worse in fact, since the prediction of little surface lows is even worse than that of large scale features like GOA lows, pna/nao states, etc.

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agreed. it's no better than looking at the 240 from dr. no and declaring us all screwed. probably worse in fact, since the prediction of little surface lows is even worse than that of large scale features like GOA lows, pna/nao states, etc.

We could very well get b**ch slapped back to reality come 12:45 this afternoon, But i will stay humbled as the pattern does favor wintery condition going into the 1st part of Dec......

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I agree we are still a ways out but my thoughts were with as much blocking up stream as the models have been showing would it be tough to get a low to cut thru the great lakes? I would have thought it would have to cut further west for that to happen or to move further east with less amplification hence allowing secondary develop further south.....

Yeah many times if indeed we do have a lot of energy hanging back in the Plains and Great Lakes, but have a block to the northeast, we may get a storm to cross over sne..like the Boston area for example, instead of having a cutter. It's a battle, and any little shift or wobble determines if we have a cutter or something more interesting. You are right in that sometimes storms travel due north into the Great Lakes and the warmth never makes it here at the surface, if we have a huge block. Instead, we torch aloft, but have a rotting polar airmass at the surface.

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Yeah clipper swings thru on sunday, But this whole deal is still out in la la land, Going to need to see over the weekend if we can continue showing this scenario its a start but need more models to jump on board...

GGEM will probably show a Blizzard of '78 sort of scenario. I'm interested in what the GFS ensembles have to say.

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GGEM will probably show a Blizzard of '78 sort of scenario. I'm interested in what the GFS ensembles have to say.

A lot of spread. It looks like they show a wave going south of sne, but also a low near Buffalo. Based on how far apart the isobars were, seems like a lot of a spread, but kinf of an interesting feature in that the primary Lakes low and secondary show up on the mean.

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Going back over last nights 00z ops run of the euro, It still has the primary going up thru the great lakes but it was more progrssive not as amped as it was at 12z diiging a hole in the ground out west and shooting the secondary west thru upstate ny, It shows a similar setup as the 12z gfs had but developed the secondary late over nova scotia instead of boston...

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Going back over last nights 00z ops run of the euro, It still has the primary going up thru the great lakes but it was more progrssive not as amped as it was at 12z diiging a hole in the ground out west and shooting the secondary west thru upstate ny, It shows a similar setup as the 12z gfs had but developed the secondary late over nova scotia instead of boston...

Last night's Euro had a weak secondary over the CC canal.

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