OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Hey does anyone have that link to the archived AFDs? I think it was Ginx who posted it before on eastern in the December 2002 thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 12z ec is a nice example of how volatile the pattern is (going to be) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 <br />Hey does anyone have that link to the archived AFDs? I think it was Ginx who posted it before on eastern in the December 2002 thread.<br /><br /><br /><br />http://has.ncdc.noaa.gov/pls/plhas/has.dsselect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 12z ec is a nice example of how volatile the pattern is (going to be) lets hope so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 12z ec is a nice example of how volatile the pattern is (going to be) Violent volatility. We need some fun wx to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 All I can say is BRING IT ON! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Great looking Lakes Cutter showing up on the op Euro after we flirt with a snowstorm next Friday. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 The ECMWF ensembles really have the best cold in the Lakes to New England from Thanksgiving and beyond. There continues to be about as strong a signal for an east based -NAO as you will see on an ensemble mean post-10 days. The PNA recovers from greatly negative back to near neutral or even slightly positive. However, by the end of the run the cross-polar flow is beginning to get cut off and the coldest anomalies have shifted back toward Siberia. The cold though is pretty good in SE Canada so there would be plenty to live on before the next reinforcing shot. At any rate, it looks like a favorable pattern for a time setting up after Thanksgiving. Maybe in the meantime we can pull off a miracle next Friday, but not keeping my hopes too high on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The ECMWF ensembles really have the best cold in the Lakes to New England from Thanksgiving and beyond. There continues to be about as strong a signal for an east based -NAO as you will see on an ensemble mean post-10 days. The PNA recovers from greatly negative back to near neutral or even slightly positive. However, by the end of the run the cross-polar flow is beginning to get cut off and the coldest anomalies have shifted back toward Siberia. The cold though is pretty good in SE Canada so there would be plenty to live on before the next reinforcing shot. At any rate, it looks like a favorable pattern for a time setting up after Thanksgiving. Maybe in the meantime we can pull off a miracle next Friday, but not keeping my hopes too high on that one. Is the GoA low coming back at the end of the run? Does that explain why cross-polar flow is fading, and could it have anything to do with the fact that AAM is dropping and the La Niña appears ready to intensify again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The ECMWF ensembles really have the best cold in the Lakes to New England from Thanksgiving and beyond. There continues to be about as strong a signal for an east based -NAO as you will see on an ensemble mean post-10 days. The PNA recovers from greatly negative back to near neutral or even slightly positive. However, by the end of the run the cross-polar flow is beginning to get cut off and the coldest anomalies have shifted back toward Siberia. The cold though is pretty good in SE Canada so there would be plenty to live on before the next reinforcing shot. At any rate, it looks like a favorable pattern for a time setting up after Thanksgiving. Maybe in the meantime we can pull off a miracle next Friday, but not keeping my hopes too high on that one. Good post. Euro Ensembles have been emphatic about that east based -NAO and the model really does have a solid sold punch here around just after turkey day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Is the GoA low coming back at the end of the run? Does that explain why cross-polar flow is fading, and could it have anything to do with the fact that AAM is dropping and the La Niña appears ready to intensify again? Well not sure about questions 2 and 3 but the GOA low does reappear and flips the EPO. You definitely get a warmer pattern by 360 hours for most of the conus but that -NAO is a beast and sticks around to keep it cold in the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Good post. Euro Ensembles have been emphatic about that east based -NAO and the model really does have a solid sold punch here around just after turkey day. There's actually some ridging out in the west during the end of the ensemble run. That, combined with the -nao perhaps gives the chance of a shortwave embedded in the flow, to amplify towards the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 <br />Well not sure about questions 2 and 3 but the GOA low does reappear and flips the EPO. You definitely get a warmer pattern by 360 hours for most of the conus but that -NAO is a beast and sticks around to keep it cold in the northeast.<br /> You should change your name again, death valley rain, West Hartford Disastah, or something more appropriate to your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Will be interesting to see how this manifests itself in the upcoming days.....reminiscent of last winter and I wonder if one of those jet driven PAC shortwaves doesn't find a way to close off and creep up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 Well I don't think there is any doubt that a big east based -NAO is going to get established...you rarely see a signal that strong all the way out to 360 hours. The wildcard will be the exact orientation of the Pacific. The worse the Pacific looks, the further north the cold stays, especially since the -NAO is east based. Since it looks like the PAC will be okay but not terrible in the D11-16 range, this should focus the cold over the Great Lakes and NE (as well as SE Canada) for Thanksgiving and beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 <br />Well I don't think there is any doubt that a big east based -NAO is going to get established...you rarely see a signal that strong all the way out to 360 hours. The wildcard will be the exact orientation of the Pacific. The worse the Pacific looks, the further north the cold stays, especially since the -NAO is east based. Since it looks like the PAC will be okay but not terrible in the D11-16 range, this should focus the cold over the Great Lakes and NE (as well as SE Canada) for Thanksgiving and beyond.<br /> PSD forecasts show negative EPO Negative WPO for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 PSD forecasts show negative EPO Negative WPO for the foreseeable future. Eye opener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 PSD forecasts show negative EPO Negative WPO for the foreseeable future. EPO stays negative for a good while, however, the PNA goes severely negative which promotes higher heights over the SE and M.A....offsetting some of the other factors that favor cold. In that setup, the best cold is in the N Rockies/Plains/PAC NW....but can extend over the northern Lakes and into New England too with the NAO trying to help out. PNA shows signs of relaxing later on and the cold comes a little further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Eye opener Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I wonder if we'll see that mini torch early T-giving week get muted as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I wonder if we'll see that mini torch early T-giving week get muted as we get closer. The advertised torches have been underperforming for a while now. We're starting to spend lots of time below freezing even after a rare warm daylike today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I wonder if we'll see that mini torch early T-giving week get muted as we get closer. i wouldn't put much stock in anything past the mid-week rain storm coming tue/wed of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 i wouldn't put much stock in anything past the mid-week rain storm coming tue/wed of this week. I think the snow event Thursday night is fairly likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 i wouldn't put much stock in anything past the mid-week rain storm coming tue/wed of this week. I think we'll definitely see that warmup before Thanksgiving....but its possible it could get muted a bit. Confident on pretty cold pattern though Thanksgiving weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 I think we'll definitely see that warmup before Thanksgiving....but its possible it could get muted a bit. Confident on pretty cold pattern though Thanksgiving weekend. yeah that could be the best bet of the next 10 to 14 days. i have very little confidence with what happens later this coming week and into the first half of next week, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 The folks at Wachusett were all worked up over Friday... I just smiled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 14, 2010 Author Share Posted November 14, 2010 yeah that could be the best bet of the next 10 to 14 days. i have very little confidence with what happens later this coming week and into the first half of next week, however. Yeah, I have no confidence in that potential Friday event...I do have some confidence in a transient cold shot next weekend...then it moderates some before Turkey Day...however, I have no idea how much it moderates. There will definitely be a gradient initially, and if it holds tough, there could be a lot more low level cold holding tough than is currently progged. The strong western trough though makes me lean toward at least one torch day though before the FROPA brings in the cold stuff around Thanksgiving and definitely the weekend that follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 yeah that could be the best bet of the next 10 to 14 days. i have very little confidence with what happens later this coming week and into the first half of next week, however. Grab your balls dude..I;m telling you. snow coming to the coast Thurs nite. Its been on and off the models now for several days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Grab your balls dude..I;m telling you. snow coming to the coast Thurs nite. Its been on and off the models now for several days How gung ho was anybody about the snow 6 days in advance that you guys got a couple weeks ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 14, 2010 Share Posted November 14, 2010 Cold is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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