40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 You're down to 50" now for my seasonal forecast. Circa 1983....with the stratified color stripes at the top.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I don't know when the average first measurable is in these parts, but I imagine it has to have already passed or is close to it. Just getting a little impatient here. lol Actually, It is usually around turkey day.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The sock jokes are great ... I take them for granted at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 LOL "WetHookerHunter" ......I think that is BowmeHunter from Eastern. Haha... that guy always cracks me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Patience will certainly be a virtue. We are still 10 days out until things probably start getting interesting. I'm not holding out a ton of hope for the T-day event...but maybe it will surprise us. We also won't see any individual snow threats until we are a lot closer...the ensemble mean smooths out any shortwaves in the flow so we'd never see it this far out. ten days.....? turkety day is certainly an interesting set up....and that is 8 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 GFS is pulling a classic "which can come first" storm around T-Day.... Looks like the cold air is chasing the storm on this run. Maybe we can get the storm to slow a little in later runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 12z ECMWF Ensemble Mean 500mb anomalies D6-10 -NAO/-AO signal defiantly here, not much of a SE Ridge signal, yet, though it could be due to some outliers. But theres no artic air source and the cold gets wedged, for now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 ten days.....? turkety day is certainly an interesting set up....and that is 8 . Hopefully the NAO can exert some force and push the boundary southward for Thanksgiving. I'm still leaning towards the actual storm being too warm but it'll finally bring the cold air southward behind it. 18z GFS seems pretty close to what I'm thinking for that system. I just don't think we get the cold in here in time for a lot of wintery precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 powder with the building NAO being locked in......is there any reason to think models will be to far north with storm track even Tue-Thur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Nothing says Wx experience more than having Warrior as part of your user name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 God.. That T-Day storm is SOOOOO close on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 God.. That T-Day storm is SOOOOO close on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 God.. That T-Day storm is SOOOOO close on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Don't stress over the T-day storm. If its colder, great, but there's a good chance it will be a rain event. Behind that storm is when we should worry about legit snow threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Kevin must be creaming his jeans over Gibbs, Wes and yours posts in Wes,s pinned thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Kevin must be creaming his jeans over Gibbs, Wes and yours posts in Wes,s pinned thread. All I can say is, go back to last year before we start saying this will be a great winter... Last year in November was " Man, December's pattern looks awesome were gonna get killed" Last year in December was "Oh well, we missed a KU but January looks to be great" Last year in January was" Its so damn cold, we didn't get any storms, but the pattern is there!" Last year in February was "But it looks good at 500mb!" Last year in March was " Holy S*** what the hell just happened that winter " I think I'll set my bar pretty low for this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 All I can say is, go back to last year before we start saying this will be a great winter... Last year in November was " Man, December's pattern looks awesome were gonna get killed" Last year in December was "Oh well, we missed a KU but January looks to be great" Last year in January was" Its so damn cold, we didn't get any storms, but the pattern is there!" Last year in February was "But it looks good at 500mb!" Last year in March was " Holy S*** what the hell just happened that winter " I think I'll set my bar pretty low for this year independent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 All I can say is, go back to last year before we start saying this will be a great winter... Last year in November was " Man, December's pattern looks awesome were gonna get killed" Last year in December was "Oh well, we missed a KU but January looks to be great" Last year in January was" Its so damn cold, we didn't get any storms, but the pattern is there!" Last year in February was "But it looks good at 500mb!" Last year in March was " Holy S*** what the hell just happened that winter " I think I'll set my bar pretty low for this year I think I had above avg snowfall in every single month of December, January, and February....the problem was I got almost nothing in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think I had above avg snowfall in every single month of December, January, and February....the problem was I got almost nothing in March. It wasn't a bad winter, I just think we got REALLY unlucky to put it in simple terms. if that block is 300 miles north we get hammered and MA gets rain When's the last time we had a good march??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 It wasn't a bad winter, I just think we got REALLY unlucky to put it in simple terms. if that block is 300 miles north we get hammered and MA gets rain Forget that even....if that damn little shortwave rotating around the base of the block is not there or weaker...we get PDII redux on Feb 5-6 instead of it hitting a brick wall just S of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It wasn't a bad winter, I just think we got REALLY unlucky to put it in simple terms. if that block is 300 miles north we get hammered and MA gets rain When's the last time we had a good march??? Is that you in that picture? Or Burt Reynolds? If the pattern shaping up next week and beyond bears fruit..you'll be picking all winter long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Don't stress over the T-day storm. If its colder, great, but there's a good chance it will be a rain event. Behind that storm is when we should worry about legit snow threats. I'll be in Claremont, NH for tday, so I have a lightly better shot than I would here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I'll be in Claremont, NH for tday, so I have a lightly better shot than I would here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 That image will go down as an american weather classic.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 12z ECMWF Ensemble Mean 500mb anomalies D6-10 -NAO/-AO signal defiantly here, not much of a SE Ridge signal, yet, though it could be due to some outliers. But theres no artic air source and the cold gets wedged, for now at least. That air is cold enough in that set up. The arctic can keep the cold heavy SUPPRESSING air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 That air is cold enough in that set up. The arctic can keep the cold heavy SUPPRESSING air. We can do without the frigid arctic air to supress everthing south, Modified arctic will do the job... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 18, 2010 Author Share Posted November 18, 2010 We can do without the frigid arctic air to supress everthing south, Modified arctic will do the job... That's essentially what we will be getting....arctic air that has modified a bit. Probably -8 to -10C 850 temps type stuff which of course is plenty cold for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I love how you're turned to the side slightly and smiling..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 I love how you're turned to the side slightly and smiling..lol. I just wish my eyes were open. There's got to be pics of me on the boards with eyes open. Pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 18, 2010 Share Posted November 18, 2010 That's essentially what we will be getting....arctic air that has modified a bit. Probably -8 to -10C 850 temps type stuff which of course is plenty cold for snow. Yeah Will, I have been looking at the 850 temp maps on the models, Looks like most of the colder arctic air wants to stay west for now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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