MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Cold look for the CONUS at 240h....very strong -NAO at that time as well. Thats the pattern where we should be able to get some decent threats....the T-day event is just gravy if it turns out to be frozen. Just want to acknowledge the gravy analogy you have been using for the Tgiving storm... I'll take an extra serving up here in NNE but no mashed potatoes please Blockin FTW I'll take the mashed potatoes. Heavy amounts. The talk here today has been encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Well whether the Thanksgiving storm works out or not, it definitely looks like go time after it passes. The pattern is still a bit in flux as the T-day storm approaches and we could easily see it cut west of us...but once its gone, I think we'll have some good chances. Hopefully the first system just stays south of us and we get frozen anyway out of it. I'd really like it to stay south, too, but have this feeling that it sneaks just far enough north/west that a lot of us are rain or mixed garbage... and then we go cold and have some light snow chances after that. Just my gut feeling as these pattern changes and step-downs always seem to trend just a bit milder/slower as we approach hour zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I'll take the mashed potatoes. Heavy amounts. The talk here today has been encouraging. Don't like mashed potatoes, but I guess if it's the first accumulating storm...... What a blast it would be to finally have a Tgiving storm. And the way it sounds, to perhaps start our permanant snowpack early this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 I'd really like it to stay south, too, but have this feeling that it sneaks just far enough north/west that a lot of us are rain or mixed garbage... and then we go cold and have some light snow chances after that. Just my gut feeling as these pattern changes and step-downs always seem to trend just a bit milder/slower as we approach hour zero. Yeah it wouldn't be surprising. Models tend to rush pattern changes and it wouldn't surprise me if we stayed on the warm side of the boundary as that storm moves in. The key however is the NAO and how much it is going to try and force even that first system south. The block already very potent by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Don't like mashed potatoes, but I guess if it's the first accumulating storm...... What a blast it would be to finally have a Tgiving storm. And the way it sounds, to perhaps start our permanant snowpack early this year. Last Thanksgiving snow for me was 2005. Rain in PWM, heavy heavies 10 miles inland. We hosted dinner, but I had to go meet somebody part way and drive them the rest of the way to my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Last Thanksgiving snow for me was 2005. Rain in PWM, heavy heavies 10 miles inland. We hosted dinner, but I had to go meet somebody part way and drive them the rest of the way to my house. We get a White Thanksgiving (snow on the ground that is) about once every 5 years. Last occurrences in the past 30 years were 2005, 2002, 1996, 1994, 1989, 1985...maybe we are due again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah it wouldn't be surprising. Models tend to rush pattern changes and it wouldn't surprise me if we stayed on the warm side of the boundary as that storm moves in. The key however is the NAO and how much it is going to try and force even that first system south. The block already very potent by that time. True, I was going to add that as a caveat of why it could go south... as long as the NAO starts going down in a hurry, you may very well be right in that this will have a hard time cutting north. I'm still just very cautious regarding these step-down to cold patterns. I could almost see a scenario where we get some sneaky low level cold and IP/ZR event for most with a thin ribbon of snow on the northern/western side. Either way, I think most of us agree that it'll be getting chilly after that and although it doesn't look overly active, we should have some of those NW flow snow showery type regimes with passing flurries and occasional dustings through the Thanksgiving weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It does have the overrunning look too. Lots of bagginess in the mass fields, with a little bump in the thicknesses at hr 192 over the Ohio valley. So even though it doesn't have it verbatim, it wants to signal something. We'll see. Not a flake to be found, but rest assured, H5 looks splendid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think I beat 2004-05 at H5 last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Not a flake to be found, but rest assured, H5 looks splendid. I want to live at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I want to live at 500mb. Elevation FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I want to live at 500mb. I believe that's about where Pete works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think I beat 2004-05 at H5 last winter. It actually looks amazing at H5.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I believe that's about where Pete works. Kev, too...or so his obs would lead you to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Not a flake to be found, but rest assured, H5 looks splendid. I bet you see something the following week to 10 days, and not just a flurry either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Kev, too...or so his obs would lead you to believe. Stack of few cell phone towers and you're all set... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I bet you see something the following week to 10 days, and not just a flurry either. Wait. Iron-clad guarantee? For real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I bet you see something the following week to 10 days, and not just a flurry either. I'm honestly optimistic for the tail end of Novie onward...I don't think we see a blockbuster December, but that is only hunch; the potential is there to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Wait. Iron-clad guarantee? For real? Well we've been saying how the pattern should become favorable during that time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Well we've been saying how the pattern should become favorable during that time period. Yeah, I'm just teasing him with the iron-clad guarantee part. I've been reading this topic intently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Well we've been saying how the pattern should become favorable during that time period. If we only resided at the altitude of the tippy-tops of nzucker's tube socks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Wait. Iron-clad guarantee? For real? LOL, well it could be nothing I suppose, but judging how the pattern looks..I would feel pretty good for a nice measurable event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Last Thanksgiving snow for me was 2005. Rain in PWM, heavy heavies 10 miles inland. We hosted dinner, but I had to go meet somebody part way and drive them the rest of the way to my house. Had 3.7" powder IMBY, and the all day windless event with nice dendrites was a real treat for my daughter and son-in-law, visiting from SC. That was also the storm that spawned 2 cold-system tornados (F0 and F1) on the midcoast. Unfortunately, that was one of the bigger events in a miserable winter. It almost certainly won't be in 2010, but I'd like to see a 10" storm in November - tops is 8.5", in 1974 and in 1989. Oddly, all 4 Maine places in which I've lived (chronologically, BGR, Ft.Kent, Gardiner, New Sharon) have had at least one 10"+ event since I moved to Maine in 1973, just not when I happened to live in the particular location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 LOL, well it could be nothing I suppose, but judging how the pattern looks..I would feel pretty good for a nice measurable event. I think the curse of 2010 is on life support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Patience will certainly be a virtue. We are still 10 days out until things probably start getting interesting. I'm not holding out a ton of hope for the T-day event...but maybe it will surprise us. We also won't see any individual snow threats until we are a lot closer...the ensemble mean smooths out any shortwaves in the flow so we'd never see it this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 LOL, well it could be nothing I suppose, but judging how the pattern looks..I would feel pretty good for a nice measurable event. I don't know when the average first measurable is in these parts, but I imagine it has to have already passed or is close to it. Just getting a little impatient here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 LOL "WetHookerHunter" ......I think that is BowmeHunter from Eastern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 If we only resided at the altitude of the tippy-tops of nzucker's tube socks. You're down to 50" now for my seasonal forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think that's the type of scenario we are going to end up with. whether it snows or not, Mileys turnin 18 in a couple of days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Going hunting in NE Pennsylvania the week after Thanksgiving. I guess I need to check my cold weather gear. Hunted last Saturday with my son (actually, he hunted and I pushed the deer). Mid-50's by 10:00 a.m. and in the 60's by lunch time. Good thing he got his deer at about 7:30 a.m. Too warm for the deer. Looking forward to the cold pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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