CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Euro ensembles out to 156h....definitely don't dig the trough as obscenely far SW as the OP run. They do dig it more than 00z, but not like the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Heck of a gradient pattern on the ensembles by Turkey Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Off the chart...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Off the chart...... Last nights ec had a -3SD block up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like the cold is forced further south too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Heck of a gradient pattern on the ensembles by Turkey Day. Where's it set up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Last nights ec had a -3SD block up there. Hope it stays somewhat negative all winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like the cold is forced further south too. The ensembles look like they would imply an overrunning snow event sometime around Turkey Day. They are definitely pretty cold. Hopefully they have the right idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like the 12z Euro has the -NAO setup more neutrally based...looking at the east/west based numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 not that i follow JB that closely.....but i think with him going that far.....that a Very cold (-5 departure) period last five days of november are better than 65/35 temp chillin off 55 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The ensembles look like they would imply an overrunning snow event sometime around Turkey Day. They are definitely pretty cold. Hopefully they have the right idea. I think that's the type of scenario we are going to end up with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The ensembles look like they would imply an overrunning snow event sometime around Turkey Day. They are definitely pretty cold. Hopefully they have the right idea. Check out the -nao...it just becomes massive and everything at H5 is forced south and west. Compare it to 00z if you can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Check out the -nao...it just becomes massive and everything at H5 is forced south and west. Compare it to 00z if you can. The NAO block is definitely more impressive this run than the 00z ensemble run.(and that run was already impressive) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I think that's the type of scenario we are going to end up with. I will take my chances with that scenario all winter long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I will take my chances with that scenario all winter long... I guess I wouldn't mind it, although I'd probably ending up changing over to sleet or perhaps rain at times but if we are in an active weather pattern and it means lots of storms than I am all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The NAO block is definitely more impressive this run than the 00z ensemble run.(and that run was already impressive) It does have the overrunning look too. Lots of bagginess in the mass fields, with a little bump in the thicknesses at hr 192 over the Ohio valley. So even though it doesn't have it verbatim, it wants to signal something. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Where's it set up? 5 bucks says Rutland, VT to Philly has a 10C spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 NAO is ridiculous on the 12z run. It also has more of a north-south look to the cold delivery in the midwest with a big high building down. Even though the air is not arctic overhead, it's not that cold and dry look with lots of nw flow. Basically, it's a better pattern for east coast cyclogenesis after the 27th or 28th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It does have the overrunning look too. Lots of bagginess in the mass fields, with a little bump in the thicknesses at hr 192 over the Ohio valley. So even though it doesn't have it verbatim, it wants to signal something. We'll see. With all that blocking upstream, I would think what is on the ecmwf ensemble is a more logical solution then what is being depicted on the op given the fact that the op is still outside its useful range here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I just thought of the perfect title for my little blog post about this system. I'm going to title it, "Thanksgiving Teaser in store?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 NAO is ridiculous on the 12z run. It also has more of a north-south look to the cold delivery in the midwest with a big high building down. Even though the air is not arctic overhead, it's not that cold and dry look with lots of nw flow. Basically, it's a better pattern for east coast cyclogenesis after the 27th or 28th. hvy hvy coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 With all that blocking upstream, I would think what is on the ecmwf ensemble is a more logical solution then what is being depicted on the op given the fact that the op is still outside its useful range here... heavy heavy low level cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 hvy hvy coming hvy hvy model watching this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah there is a ton of energy hanging back at hr 144. Is this the Euro bias of holding back energy in the sw or does it fit the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 NAO is ridiculous on the 12z run. It also has more of a north-south look to the cold delivery in the midwest with a big high building down. Even though the air is not arctic overhead, it's not that cold and dry look with lots of nw flow. Basically, it's a better pattern for east coast cyclogenesis after the 27th or 28th. from what i can see...they really haven't changed much from the previous 3 or 4 runs. they've been pretty steadfast. some minor fluctuations but i think only one run a few days ago showed a buckle over the N rockies...otherwise they have been quite consistent with the positioning of the trough axis (at least extrapolated) even with the GOA vortex reappearing, the pure strength of that ridge over greenland is driving the pattern. the 12z op run just had a funky vortmax go to town out west. if that were to verify weaker, it's basically the same as the mean...at least, that's kind of how i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 from what i can see...they really haven't changed much from the previous 3 or 4 runs. they've been pretty steadfast. some minor fluctuations but i think only one run a few days ago showed a buckle over the N rockies...otherwise they have been quite consistent with the positioning of the trough axis (at least extrapolated) even with the GOA vortex reappearing, the pure strength of that ridge over greenland is driving the pattern. the 12z op run just had a funky vortmax go to town out west. if that were to verify weaker, it's basically the same as the mean...at least, that's kind of how i see it. Yeah really no shocker from ensembles. Other than minor fluctuations after d10 which is no surprise, the key features are there. This run of the euro ensembles kind of retrograded everything west. Now, we pop a slight +PNA and that helps with meridional flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Is this the Euro bias of holding back energy in the sw or does it fit the pattern? It could very well be. It's tough to say if that specific reason is causing it, but after all..it is a d9-10 prog on a deterministic model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 hvy hvy model watching this weekend. And the next 12 thereafter.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Well whether the Thanksgiving storm works out or not, it definitely looks like go time after it passes. The pattern is still a bit in flux as the T-day storm approaches and we could easily see it cut west of us...but once its gone, I think we'll have some good chances. Hopefully the first system just stays south of us and we get frozen anyway out of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Cold look for the CONUS at 240h....very strong -NAO at that time as well. Thats the pattern where we should be able to get some decent threats....the T-day event is just gravy if it turns out to be frozen. Just want to acknowledge the gravy analogy you have been using for the Tgiving storm... I'll take an extra serving up here in NNE but no mashed potatoes please Blockin FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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