ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 The good thing is its hr 236, We roller coaster for a few more days it seems........ Cold look for the CONUS at 240h....very strong -NAO at that time as well. Thats the pattern where we should be able to get some decent threats....the T-day event is just gravy if it turns out to be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah I admitted i busted on early next week. Maybe Monday is the cool transition day with clouds..Tuesday we torch into the 80's and then Wed we cool down..setting us up for snow on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Cold look for the CONUS at 240h....very strong -NAO at that time as well. Thats the pattern where we should be able to get some decent threats....the T-day event is just gravy if it turns out to be frozen. Will, Did you see where it pops a secondary at the very end in the gulf of maine? Do you think that something that may be plausible solution with a secondary on the coast somewhere on future runs if we get that vort to dig further SE instead of cutting up towards the GL....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Cold look for the CONUS at 240h....very strong -NAO at that time as well. Thats the pattern where we should be able to get some decent threats....the T-day event is just gravy if it turns out to be frozen. It's still shoving the cold in the west. I'd like to see the trough not so anxious to dig for oil out west. Luckily, it's the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Cold look for the CONUS at 240h....very strong -NAO at that time as well. Thats the pattern where we should be able to get some decent threats....the T-day event is just gravy if it turns out to be frozen. ya until that 240 cold look gets pushed back....tgiving better be frozen or freez'n or weenies will be hangin lake's cutter better not happen on friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 ya until that 240 cold look gets pushed back....tgiving better be frozen or freez'n or weenies will be hangin lake's cutter better not happen on friday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Joking around...whoosh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It's still shoving the cold in the west. I'd like to see the trough not so anxious to dig for oil out west. Luckily, it's the op run. what kind of set up makes it likely for the cold to dig so far SW YETstill drape eastward over to NE.....is it the NAO block....i.e what makes us confident the increased confidence of a trough in the west wont' screw our late next week's advertised cold shot.....from getting pushed back a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 what kind of set up makes it likely for the cold to dig so far SW YETstill drape eastward over to NE.....is it the NAO block....i.e what makes us confident the increased confidence of a trough in the west wont' screw our late next week's advertised cold shot.....from getting pushed back a few more days. It may never snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 at least it's gonna get cold for friday and sunday.....that's not gettin freakin delayed. i still have hope that this cooldown will be here to stay. 12z gfs really doesn't it warm us up after today.....besides heights near 5520 on tuesday (slightly above ave?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 what kind of set up makes it likely for the cold to dig so far SW YETstill drape eastward over to NE.....is it the NAO block....i.e what makes us confident the increased confidence of a trough in the west wont' screw our late next week's advertised cold shot.....from getting pushed back a few more days. Dude..the Euro is notroious for dragging it's heels and keeping s/w energy in the SW. It's a known bias of the model. Relax C pickles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 It may never snow again from the Cape on S. i hope you guys get at least 15 this year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Dude..the Euro is notroious for dragging it's heels and keeping s/w energy in the SW. It's a known bias of the model. Relax C pickles if that trough is by the four corners on turkey day ....they better stuff the bird with xanax or i'll be flippin out. and i do recall now that the euro is notorious for that....but the very accurate CMC keeps diggin out west at hr 180 as well ukie ditto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 if that trough is by the four corners on turkey day ....they better stuff the bird with xanax or i'll be flippin out. and i do recall now that the euro is notorious for that....but the very accurate CMC keeps diggin out west at hr 180 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah a +PNA is good because when this occurs, by definition we have a ridge out west. If you have a ridge out west, more than likely you have a trough in the east, and hence the cold. These are more likely during El Nino's because it goes back to the argument for where the tropical forcing is. El Nino's usually have forcing much farther east...like near the dateline. This is in turn develops ridging out in the west. Confluence is a good way, and this is inherent on the pattern. Take 12/16/07. We had a big 1040 high north of Maine. Notice on the 500mb map that you can see air coming from the northwest. This is right on the top right part of the 500mb map. Now check out the flow over the eastern US. It's out of the southwest. You can see where the 500 height lines start to pack tightly near and just east of Maine. This is showing the air converging in the mid and especially upper levels. Now if air is converging in the mid and upper levels, it has no where to go but down. Now we have sinking air and surface high pressure. Don't forget, high pressure is also a function of very cold dense air too. Basically what you want is a polar vortex that is east of Labrador. This is close enough to funnel in cold arctic air into sne. Thanks for the help Coastalwx. I did learn about that in introduction to meteorology class my freshman year, problem was I was not able to continue because of financial reasons. Instead I am leaving for basic training on january 18th 2011. I will be without my laptop for two months, but afterwards I will be blogging from Biloxi, MS (Keesler AFB) hopefully at tech school if everything goes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 JB just tossing weenies out by the dozens The headline is in reference to the movie by the same name about a U-boat that had stay way down to avoid the ships over top of her trying to sink her. The forecast AO and NAO are heading way down as the Thanksgiving to Christmas wild weather scenario I am trying to whip you into a frenzy over looks more and more likely. The Long Ranger examines that. In the meantime, the Big Dog keeps delivering the Thanksgiving goodies with the threat of snow and ice on the pressing Arctic air mass that is coming in. The last five days of November are liable to be the coldest east of the Mississippi since at least 2002, perhaps since 1996 and in the extreme case, 1989. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Kevin's going to owe me some shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Thanks for the help Coastalwx. I did learn about that in introduction to meteorology class my freshman year, problem was I was not able to continue because of financial reasons. Instead I am leaving for basic training on january 18th 2011. I will be without my laptop for two months, but afterwards I will be blogging from Biloxi, MS (Keesler AFB) hopefully at tech school if everything goes right. Best of luck to you man. Stay in touch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 "... very accurate CMC ... " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 i put VERY in front of accurate referencing the CMC for sarcasm lol wind gotta be hittin 35 plus in gusts at the top of my little hill here in framingham. too bad the access road to wa wa is closed thru spring.....winds gonna be near 60 at the peak this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 JB just tossing weenies out by the dozens The headline is in reference to the movie by the same name about a U-boat that had stay way down to avoid the ships over top of her trying to sink her. The forecast AO and NAO are heading way down as the Thanksgiving to Christmas wild weather scenario I am trying to whip you into a frenzy over looks more and more likely. The Long Ranger examines that. In the meantime, the Big Dog keeps delivering the Thanksgiving goodies with the threat of snow and ice on the pressing Arctic air mass that is coming in. The last five days of November are liable to be the coldest east of the Mississippi since at least 2002, perhaps since 1996 and in the extreme case, 1989. he's had a rough stretch since spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 ROFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 what kind of set up makes it likely for the cold to dig so far SW YETstill drape eastward over to NE.....is it the NAO block....i.e what makes us confident the increased confidence of a trough in the west wont' screw our late next week's advertised cold shot.....from getting pushed back a few more days. Well like I said, it's the op run so take it fwiw. It will get here. What we can't determine is the track of every storm. Ensembles are smoothed so that the farther out you go, the less swings you'll see. It takes the average off all the members and the hope is that the mean will give you a good idea as to what will happen. The NAO will help bring the cold east, but we don't want it too far west. Having it cut into Greenland and then migrate a little bit west is fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Does anyone know when the euro NAO/PNA/EPO images on Allan's site updates? I haven't paid attention to the times, I think it's like around 3:30 or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 ROFL The irony of it all is that its true....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Euro ensembles out to 156h....definitely don't dig the trough as obscenely far SW as the OP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 he's had a rough stretch since spring. he's done fairly well I think. he even nailed the nor easter early last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 he's done fairly well I think. he even nailed the nor easter early last week well i don't want to make this a jb thread. i don't read him much but he's a master of spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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