NJwinter23 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Thanks for the freebies Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Allan's are out. http://raleighwx.ame...s/ecmwfens.html Yeah but his don''t go beyond 240h. I get to 360h. I like breaking rules...but its a new board, the ECMWF.int folks havent followed me here yet I don't think ( i think they hate me with a passion as I have bad mouthed them). I'm going to delete my post soon. But I just wanted to show the monster NAO effect even the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Allan's are out. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwfens.html Thanks , and wow on those NAO numbers 24th and beyond.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah but his don''t go beyond 240h. I get to 360h. I like breaking rules...but its a new board, the ECMWF.int folks havent followed me here yet I don't think ( i think they hate me with a passion as I have bad mouthed them). I'm going to delete my post soon. But I just wanted to show the monster NAO effect even the Euro ensembles. Yeah...just saw you posted 276h. If you really want to be a rebel let's see some QPF maps in Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah...just saw you posted 276h. If you really want to be a rebel let's see some QPF maps in Dec. I'd love to sneak some of the maps in here...but those guys were on me like flies on sh**....they emailed me (I honestly have no idea how they found my email) and threatened me back in October 2009. They obviously aren't here yet I wouldn't think, but they probably will be soon. They are a sick group. They stalked me for like 2 months I think. I tried to send back a cordial email telling them how much money they would make by making their data available for a small fee like $50 a month or something, but they laughed at me. They are an arrogant and ruthless group at ecmwf.int....you saw what they did when we had MDA maps on eastern. Even if they were 30 minutes delayed. That was something I probably should have posted in the eastern staff forum, but I didn;t want to get you guys involved in it. Since they were only attacking me and not the site at the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I'd love to sneak some of the maps in here...but those guys were on me like flies on sh**....they emailed me (I honestly have no idea how they found my email) and threatened me back in October 2009. They obviously aren't here yet I wouldn't think, but they probably will be soon. They are a sick group. They stalked me for like 2 months I think. I tried to send back a cordial email telling them how much money they would make by making their data available for a small fee like $50 a month or something, but they laughed at me. They are an arrogant and ruthless group at ecmwf.int....you saw what they did when we had MDA maps on eastern. Even if they were 30 minutes delayed. That was something I probably should have posted in the eastern staff forum, but I didn;t want to get you guys involved in it. Since they were only attacking me and not the site at the time. Such BS. I want to post those badly as well. It really sucks we can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Getting back to the NAO argument...It's interesting if you break down mod/strong Ninas and NAO cycle. If I did the math right, and I did this in haste, but it seems 7 of the last 8 mod/strong (mostly mod) Nina events had a +NAO. This also goes with the +NAO decadal regime we had. The previous 5 going back to 1950 to 1970 had a -NAO and this occurred during the -NAO decadal cycle. Kind of interesting anyways. I know not all intensities are the same..yada yada yada, but that's a neat stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like one of the major differences between the GFS and the Euro is that the Euro is more west-based with the -NAO block while the GFS is more east-based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like one of the major differences between the GFS and the Euro is that the Euro is more west-based with the -NAO block while the GFS is more east-based. For what period? They look similar to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 For what period? They look similar to me. I basically just looked at the graphics from Allan's page: If anything maybe the euro is more central placed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Meant to post this for image number 1...not sure how to clear an image since when you make a post and ad an image you see the image instead of the text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Oh ok. Looking at H5, they don't seem all that different in terms of placement....just some magnitude differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like we had Wiz and a few other hurl themselves off bridges last night based on the op Euro..which actually isn't that bad..and is still a colder type pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like we had Wiz and a few other hurl themselves off bridges last night based on the op Euro..which actually isn't that bad..and is still a colder type pattern Why am I jumping off a bridge? I'm in the camp for an active early December, and perhaps a fairly active December overall. I don't think the Thanksgiving system will perform snow wise for us but it's the pattern that sets itself up after that which will be favorable for us. I think it's just a matter of where the boundary ends up setting up and this is mainly for us here in extreme SNE. Obviously the stronger the -NAO and the more east-based the block is the better chance we have here in CT I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Oh ok. Looking at H5, they don't seem all that different in terms of placement....just some magnitude differences. Do those maps look at the sfc or how are they basing the calculations off of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like we had Wiz and a few other hurl themselves off bridges last night based on the op Euro..which actually isn't that bad..and is still a colder type pattern We commented last night how it looked like there could be a storm near Thanksgiving. I think with all that energy hanging back west...it could be a warmer type storm, we just don't know yet. Besides we all said after Thanksgiving is when things get going. I don't know how many more times this needs to be said. It's exhausting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Do those maps look at the sfc or how are they basing the calculations off of? I was just looking at H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I was just looking at H5. Ohh I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I'm not going to get in the middle of this, but concerning the bolded comment..The "insane block" you speak of on the 00z gfs is every bit as strong/insane (whatever you want to call it) on the op 00z euro. So when you say the EC day 10 makes more sense then the gfs day 10 for that reason , well that doesnt really make any sense to me. GFS is much more west based with the NAO block while the Euro seems to be east/central Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Those are some sick Nao numbers, Talk about a block on steroids, And, Thanks, For the sneak peek Will, Whish i had access to those, I did not even check with Jack to see how much for access on SV......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Those are some sick Nao numbers, Talk about a block on steroids, And, Thanks, For the sneak peek Will, Whish i had access to those, I did not even check with Jack to see how much for access on SV......... wait if you're on SV you can see them for free? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 wait if you're on SV you can see them for free? You def can't see the ensembles for free past d10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 to all the s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 You def can't see the ensembles for free past d10. I was going to say I've been missing out all this time. I think I still have an account there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 You def can't see the ensembles for free past d10. Not the Euro, Gfs i can see....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Not the Euro, Gfs i can see....... Yeah, ecmwf get hard-ons, knowing they can charge an arm and a leg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Some of the ensemble members on the psu ewall site do have some sort of storm around Thanksgiving. I'd still watch that time, but some of the members are Lake cutters. Going forward, I still think those last days of November...like the 28 or so through the beginning of December hold promise for something. Many of the members signal a couple of storms during this time. However, you also see how volatile the pattern is. Several members also show low pressure going near or even west of us during this time. This is likely due to some of the members hanging the trough back further to the west with all the cold air. Lots of ups (next week) and hopefully down (following week). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwKvwD97cf8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah, ecmwf get hard-ons, knowing they can charge an arm and a leg. Yes, They are, I have access all the way out on the GFS, But no dice on the ecmwf, And i would not give up my 1st born to get it........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Some of the ensemble members on the psu ewall site do have some sort of storm around Thanksgiving. I'd still watch that time, but some of the members are Lake cutters. Going forward, I still think those last days of November...like the 28 or so through the beginning of December hold promise for something. Many of the members signal a couple of storms during this time. However, you also see how volatile the pattern is. Several members also show low pressure going near or even west of us during this time. This is likely due to some of the members hanging the trough back further to the west with all the cold air. Lots of ups (next week) and hopefully down (following week). http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwKvwD97cf8 {media] [/media] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Maybe we will have a December with Permanent cold and snow... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRDE9Am9We8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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