weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 It looks like the real deal may be coming in near Thanksgiving and beyond. We have a mini torch early that week it looks like after the initial cold shot next weekend..... like we thought. Well hopefully we are able to manage some snow out of it, just having cold and dry sucks. It's like having heat/humidity in the summer without thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 hey MRG it's up to 53 at kevin spacey's house glad that MRG is here.....do we have a updated "missing persons" list? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 i am very happy with the way the cold has been trending ...........more sustainable and no need to wait for early dec for neg departures. BiG Fat weenies ripped out of packets soon to be in hand.....ready to be chucked next friday then again turkey week. Look out below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The 06z GFS is wicked snowy for interior New England. A lot of overrunning setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The 06z GFS is wicked snowy for interior New England. A lot of overrunning setups Past several model runs have really looked like a good pattern for overrunning type events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The 06z GFS is wicked snowy for interior New England. A lot of overrunning setups If even one pans out I think we'll all be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 It looks like the real deal may be coming in near Thanksgiving and beyond. We have a mini torch early that week it looks like after the initial cold shot next weekend..... like we thought. What did you think if the euro ensembles past Thanksgiving? I liked what I saw, overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 If even one pans out I think we'll all be satisfied. Yeah. Keeping an eye on the 19th. Lots of potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Yeah. Keeping an eye on the 19th. Lots of potential The gfs had a Dec 9 2005 comma head with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 What did you think if the euro ensembles past Thanksgiving? I liked what I saw, overall. Yeah not bad at all....still enough ridging near Bering straight to keep cross polar flow even if GOA low starts to come back and then the huge east based -NAO to help push it into SE Canada and New England. It looks like some fun could definitely be had post-Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Even Ray would get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Yeah. Keeping an eye on the 19th. Lots of potential GYX seems to think rain to snow but perhaps a lack of moisture. What are you seeing in terms of potential? Would love that as it will make the minitorch that follows less intense and then we set down more snow the following week...and then we have the chance for a permanent snow cover starting almost a month early. Snow begets snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Even Ray would get smoked. Ray is too wise to get caught up in GFS histrionics. But not me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Fun map to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The gfs had a Dec 9 2005 comma head with that. hahaha yeah verbatim that's a huge hit for a lot of SNE! My call for a 10" November for ORH would be verified in that one storm alone One consistent signal is that the Wednesday storm acts as a 50/50 low to our northeast. The biggest concern probably won't be ptype (at least for the interior), but if it doesn't get to amplify enough as it gets squashed to the south. Obviously the 06z GFS is perfect lol. The ECMWF still doesn't have enough s/w ridging between the departing storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Ray is too wise to get caught up in GFS histrionics. But not me. Fun to look at. No harm done if you have a realistic approach, but why not have some fun with it? You should see the Canadian..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Fun to look at. No harm done if you have a realistic approach, but why not have some fun with it? You should see the Canadian..lol. Exactly! As long as we can keep a realistic approach there is no harm at all in looking, heck in the summer I salviate looking at long range GFS maps that show Capes of like 5500 here in SNE with insane shear and sick lapse rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Fun to look at. No harm done if you have a realistic approach, but why not have some fun with it? You should see the Canadian..lol. I see it to only 144h on ewall, so I don't get to see armageddon (unless there's a site that goes out further). Thankfully the Canadian has been lethal at this time range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 The 06z GFS is wicked snowy for interior New England. A lot of overrunning setups And cold - AUG never reaches 32, D9 thru D16, with 1.2" LE. Of course, it's gfs D9-16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 13, 2010 Author Share Posted November 13, 2010 I see it to only 144h on ewall, so I don't get to see armageddon (unless there's a site that goes out further). Thankfully the Canadian has been lethal at this time range. It goes out to 240 on this loop on ewall http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/CMC_0z/cmcloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 12z GFS completely squashed that low on Thursday. Just obliterates it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 It's coming. It is dutifully waiting until I'm back in town for good. Sorry to delay it guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 by squashed to you mean supressed south.......i think i read you wrong.......b'c the first low moved 150 miles SE of 0z guidance......do you mean the 12z gfs obliterated our miller b. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 12Z GFS has finally bowed to the Euro...which had it's medium range solution in the longer range earlier this week. What a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 Ukie joining the party? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 coastal it's really the "1'st low" i.e the 'wednesday' low your referencing.......that is squashed .... to avoid confusion with the friday miller b. .....which may well be supressed as well. No, he is talking about Friday. There is a total lack of s/w ridging between the Wednesday storm and the next wave, and the whole thing for Friday gets pancaked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 coastal it's really the "1'st low" i.e the 'wednesday' low your referencing.......that is squashed .... to avoid confusion with the friday miller b. .....which may well be supressed as well. No I'm referring to the second low. The first low is still there. GFS is probably to progressive as usual, as it barely has a fropa with the second low, but the euro pretty much had a fropa with a weak low as well. The whole setup doesn't really support something that the 06z gfs or Canadian had, but I suppose it could happen. We'll just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 No, he is talking about Friday. There is a total lack of s/w ridging between the Wednesday storm and the next wave, and the whole thing for Friday gets pancaked. got it.....awesome........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 13, 2010 Share Posted November 13, 2010 This is so awesome......the timing of the REAL winter beginning is when I return from Mexico. I am Ole Man Winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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