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Pattern Change thread


ORH_wxman

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It looks like the real deal may be coming in near Thanksgiving and beyond. We have a mini torch early that week it looks like after the initial cold shot next weekend.....

like we thought. :snowman:

Well hopefully we are able to manage some snow out of it, just having cold and dry sucks. It's like having heat/humidity in the summer without thunderstorms.

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What did you think if the euro ensembles past Thanksgiving? I liked what I saw, overall.

Yeah not bad at all....still enough ridging near Bering straight to keep cross polar flow even if GOA low starts to come back and then the huge east based -NAO to help push it into SE Canada and New England. It looks like some fun could definitely be had post-Thanksgiving.

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Yeah. Keeping an eye on the 19th. Lots of potential

GYX seems to think rain to snow but perhaps a lack of moisture. What are you seeing in terms of potential? Would love that as it will make the minitorch that follows less intense and then we set down more snow the following week...and then we have the chance for a permanent snow cover starting almost a month early. Snow begets snow....

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The gfs had a Dec 9 2005 comma head with that. laugh.gif

hahaha yeah verbatim that's a huge hit for a lot of SNE! My call for a 10" November for ORH would be verified in that one storm alone :lol:

One consistent signal is that the Wednesday storm acts as a 50/50 low to our northeast. The biggest concern probably won't be ptype (at least for the interior), but if it doesn't get to amplify enough as it gets squashed to the south. Obviously the 06z GFS is perfect lol. The ECMWF still doesn't have enough s/w ridging between the departing storm.

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Fun to look at. No harm done if you have a realistic approach, but why not have some fun with it?

You should see the Canadian..lol.

Exactly! As long as we can keep a realistic approach there is no harm at all in looking, heck in the summer I salviate looking at long range GFS maps that show Capes of like 5500 here in SNE with insane shear and sick lapse rates :lol:

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coastal it's really the "1'st low" i.e the 'wednesday' low your referencing.......that is squashed .... to avoid confusion with the friday miller b. .....which may well be supressed as well.

No, he is talking about Friday. There is a total lack of s/w ridging between the Wednesday storm and the next wave, and the whole thing for Friday gets pancaked.

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coastal it's really the "1'st low" i.e the 'wednesday' low your referencing.......that is squashed .... to avoid confusion with the friday miller b. .....which may well be supressed as well.

No I'm referring to the second low. The first low is still there. GFS is probably to progressive as usual, as it barely has a fropa with the second low, but the euro pretty much had a fropa with a weak low as well. The whole setup doesn't really support something that the 06z gfs or Canadian had, but I suppose it could happen. We'll just have to see.

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