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Pattern Change thread

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

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I don't think we'll have to just rely on March if the NAO is negative for a lot of the winter. Granted that is kind of how it played out in '55-'56....but years like '70-'71 and '64-'65 were pretty solid in the other months with a -NAO and a fairly potent Nina.

I think we'll want to root for a -NAO/-PNA pattern.

Well the good news is we should at least be in a -PNA state for much of the winter :guitar:

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Even if that storm doesn't pan out no need to flip out or anything, the ensuing pattern looks quite favorable and potentially active.

I'm not counting on the T-day (or near it) storm...if it pans out, great and that's a bonus. But I'm looking at the 10 day period beyond beyond Thanksgiving for something to happen.

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I don't think we'll have to just rely on March if the NAO is negative for a lot of the winter. Granted that is kind of how it played out in '55-'56....but years like '70-'71 and '64-'65 were pretty solid in the other months with a -NAO and a fairly potent Nina.

I think we'll want to root for a -NAO/-PNA pattern.

I didn't say that, you did; I think that March will be huge regardless.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I didn't say that, you did; I think that March will be huge regardless.

Well you didn't seem too excited about December. I can't remember what you thought for January or February.

But I'm liking the December pattern at least the first half of the month...we'll see if it goes longer than that.

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Well you didn't seem too excited about December. I can't remember what you thought for January or February.

But I'm liking the December pattern at least the first half of the month...we'll see if it goes longer than that.

Dec on paper looks great, but I'm playing a hunch in hedging that it will be nothing special with regard to snowfall......I thk Jan and Feb will be "meh"....

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nzucker

nzucker

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Dec on paper looks great, but I'm playing a hunch in hedging that it will be nothing special with regard to snowfall......I thk Jan and Feb will be "meh"....

It seems like some of the other mets think the beginning of December might be cold/snowy, followed by a big-time torch, and then perhaps a return to colder conditions around the holidays. That would be a very desirable sequence for me as we could all get excited about winter with some moderate events and cold weather in late Nov/early Dec but wait until later in the month when climo favors bigger snowfalls and more intense arctic outbreaks all the way down to the coastal plain.

Overall, a very unusual pattern beginning to take shape given the strong La Niña.

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It seems like some of the other mets think the beginning of December might be cold/snowy, followed by a big-time torch, and then perhaps a return to colder conditions around the holidays. That would be a very desirable sequence for me as we could all get excited about winter with some moderate events and cold weather in late Nov/early Dec but wait until later in the month when climo favors bigger snowfalls and more intense arctic outbreaks all the way down to the coastal plain.

Overall, a very unusual pattern beginning to take shape given the strong La Niña.

Fine with that sequence were it to play out; don't need 95-96.

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nzucker

nzucker

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It looks as if the energy cuts off too early in the Plains with a stronger SE ridge and a weaker NAO block that's not nearly as west-based. NYC has already gone above 0C at 850mb by Day 10 and the rest of SNE will soon follow suit. Pattern looks generally poor with much warmer air over Central Canada and a GoA low developing. I'm still not totally buying into this massive pattern change for the Northeast although I'm sure some colder temperatures will arrive after Thanksgiving, perhaps following another cutter. That's the problem with a strong La Niña though...the cold air always comes in AFTER the storms.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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It looks as if the energy cuts off too early in the Plains with a stronger SE ridge and a weaker NAO block that's not nearly as west-based. NYC has already gone above 0C at 850mb by Day 10 and the rest of SNE will soon follow suit. Pattern looks generally poor with much warmer air over Central Canada and a GoA low developing. I'm still not totally buying into this massive pattern change for the Northeast although I'm sure some colder temperatures will arrive after Thanksgiving, perhaps following another cutter. That's the problem with a strong La Niña though...the cold air always comes in AFTER the storms.

The T-day storm is a long shot at best. The favorable New England pattern sets in after it. The PV lobe will be forced underneath the NAO block into SE Canada....that's when we'll see our chances.

As I said earlier in the thread last page...if we get the T-day event, a total bonus and gravy, but we certainly aren't counting on it. EC is pretty much an outlier though with its D10 pattern, the ensembles will undoubtedly not support it. I think its too bottled up considering that even the OP EC has a huge greenland block.

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