ski MRG Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 in a lot of ways, i feel like we've said everything there is to say about this pattern shift. now it's time to get the cold/snow going to start dissecting an actual event. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 in a lot of ways, i feel like we've said everything there is to say about this pattern shift. now it's time to get the cold/snow going to start dissecting an actual event. The next task is figuring out how long this colder pattern will last now that we know its coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah, and those that doubted the1950s and 1960s analogs haven't said a peep about it. 1955 and 1970 have been showing up all over the place recently.1973 too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Hr 54 nam says snow flurries for SNE.....looks a tad cooler on the fri cool shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 1955 and 1970 have been showing up all over the place recently.1973 too. Yeah, I believe the most common Nina winters showing up this month have been 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, and 1975. Hardly any Ninas from the past 30 years...though I have seen 1995 a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah, I believe the most common Nina winters showing up this month have been 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, and 1975. Hardly any Ninas from the past 30 years...though I have seen 1995 a few times. Yeah 1995 keeps popping up too...hey that was a Nina. But you are right, I don't think I have seen 1998 or 1999 in at least month on the CPC analogs. I did see 1988 I think last week, but hopefully its gone now never to come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 1955 and 1970 have been showing up all over the place recently.1973 too. 73-74 FTW Heavy heavy icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Hmm that year doesn't stand out to me , but ice wouldn't have interested an 8 year old I guess. After about 1971 we had sub-par period until about 1975/76. 73-74 FTW Heavy heavy icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 The NAO block is going to be quite a wildcard as to when the pattern finally breaks down. Its strange seeing such a big Atlantic block develop on the models during a mod/strong La Nina. We havent really seen this type of pattern in a potent Nina since the winter of 1970-1971. All of our recent mod/strong Ninas have had raging +NAOs almost wire to wire. Dec 1975 and Jan 1976 had some -NAO periods however, they were never large blocks like what is showing up on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 <br />Advantage of a Nina over Nino. PV is much more likely to be strong/cold and when blocking forces it south....look out, major cold/storminess for northern tier.<br />/>Geezus thanK you, been preaching this since May, looks good for now, although expect the usual spells of AOAN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah 1995 keeps popping up too...hey that was a Nina. But you are right, I don't think I have seen 1998 or 1999 in at least month on the CPC analogs. I did see 1988 I think last week, but hopefully its gone now never to come back. Why has their been mention of the late 90's Nina's? I don't think any of those Nina's are any type of match at all for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 -NAO/-PNA winters are usually kind to our area. 1955-1956 1961-1962 1964-1965 1965-1966 1967-1968 1968-1969 1970-1971 1978-1979 (this one sucked for us) 1981-1982 2008-2009 You can see how common they were back in the 1960s...much rarer now but we may be going back to that type of regime. Those 2 are in my sig, Those were great years.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Those 2 are in my sig, Those were great years.... They weren't as blockbuster here...but still very good....both years had 80-85" here. I'm becoming more and more intrigued by the -NAO potential throughout the winter. We'll have to see how much it stays around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tacoman25 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The NAO block is going to be quite a wildcard as to when the pattern finally breaks down. Its strange seeing such a big Atlantic block develop on the models during a mod/strong La Nina. We havent really seen this type of pattern in a potent Nina since the winter of 1970-1971. All of our recent mod/strong Ninas have had raging +NAOs almost wire to wire. Dec 1975 and Jan 1976 had some -NAO periods however, they were never large blocks like what is showing up on the models. Yeah, I made a similar comment somewhere recently...the popular thinking that mod/strong Nina automatically = +AO/+NAO/+EPO (ie. little to no blocking) has been influenced quite a bit by recent history, I think. If you go back further, a number of Ninas featured periods of significant blocking: 1955-56, 1964-65, 1970-71, etc. Now we also have the solar wild card which may be having an effect.... Of course, I'm sure there are those that would argue Nov is not winter yet and the Nina dominated pattern hasn't set in yet. While there is some truth to that, the fact is that the 2007, 1999, 1998, and 1988 Novembers never saw anything like the kind of blocking that appears to be developing this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Yeah, I made a similar comment somewhere recently...the popular thinking that mod/strong Nina automatically = +AO/+NAO/+EPO (ie. little to no blocking) has been influenced quite a bit by recent history, I think. If you go back further, a number of Ninas featured periods of significant blocking: 1955-56, 1964-65, 1970-71, etc. Now we also have the solar wild card which may be having an effect.... Of course, I'm sure there are those that would argue Nov is not winter yet and the Nina dominated pattern hasn't set in yet. While there is some truth to that, the fact is that the 2007, 1999, 1998, and 1988 Novembers never saw anything like the kind of blocking that appears to be developing this year. Well we have pretty decent confidence that this NAO block is going to be around when December starts....so that will officially be meteorological winter. And you are right, none of those previous recent late Novembers saw anything like this. Even the coldish 2007. I can say this, if the NAO becomes stubbornly negative as we go into winter, a lot of people's ideas are going to be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 If the -NAO does stick around, and it is quite negative than I will gladly bust on my winter call...if that occurs I think WE ALL get smoked...even down here in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 They weren't as blockbuster here...but still very good....both years had 80-85" here. I'm becoming more and more intrigued by the -NAO potential throughout the winter. We'll have to see how much it stays around. It would be great if remained in the negative phase thru the whole winter but time will tell i guess..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 18z GFS operational model showed a huge spike in the PNA to positive levels near the 29th. Huge -NAO blocking pattern is becoming evident now within the guidance. Break down of the +EPO will determine when our cold arrives. It looks to be after Thanksgiving. Next weekend could bring our first snowfall of the winter. THe lack of warming in the tropical pacific ocean due ot the La Nina is the reason for the lack of a steadfast +PNA ridge right? So does warming occur across the western Atlantic Ocean allowing the SE ridge to show its ugly face? So the question is, tropical region warming allows ridging to evolve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 00z GFS pushes the Thanksgiving day storm to the southeast, cold air wins out on this run. Could be the normal waffling going on still, since it is around 204+ hours out still. PV gets involved and surface low is too southwest for most of SNE to receive mostly snow still. We still have a long ways before getting into any details. -NAO block is still quite intense, and west based. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 00z GFS pushes the Thanksgiving day storm to the southeast, cold air wins out on this run. Could be the normal waffling going on still, since it is around 204+ hours out still. PV gets involved and surface low is too southwest for most of SNE to receive mostly snow still. We still have a long ways before getting into any details. -NAO block is still quite intense, and west based. Yes sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 The NAO block on the 00z GFS is redonkulous looking. It backs up past Baffin Island and then cuts off and totally dominates the pattern. I'm still skeptical of something like that, but we'll have to see if it keeps showing up more as we get closer. The ensembles we trying to hint at a more west based block eventually at 18z today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 The NAO block on the 00z GFS is redonkulous looking. It backs up past Baffin Island and then cuts off and totally dominates the pattern. I'm still skeptical of something like that, but we'll have to see if it keeps showing up more as we get closer. The ensembles we trying to hint at a more west based block eventually at 18z today. Can't you let us 's enjoy this before Dr. No comes out in like an hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Can't you let us 's enjoy this before Dr. No comes out in like an hour? Dr. No has broken many hearts during Nina winters. GFS always wants to be too cold and suppressed...though supposedly its supposed to be better now...however I haven't noticed yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Definitely fun to look at but we'll see, it's ultimately probably going to come down to how strongly negative the NAO is and whether or not it sets up as a west-based block. Lots of model flipping (as expected) over the past few days with regards to the strength of the -NAO and to where the block sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Looks like the EPO flips as well right around the time of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 Dr. No has broken many hearts during Nina winters. GFS always wants to be too cold and suppressed...though supposedly its supposed to be better now...however I haven't noticed yet. Yeah, it is probably full of crap but it's nice to dream... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 They weren't as blockbuster here...but still very good....both years had 80-85" here. I'm becoming more and more intrigued by the -NAO potential throughout the winter. We'll have to see how much it stays around. Well we have pretty decent confidence that this NAO block is going to be around when December starts....so that will officially be meteorological winter. And you are right, none of those previous recent late Novembers saw anything like this. Even the coldish 2007. I can say this, if the NAO becomes stubbornly negative as we go into winter, a lot of people's ideas are going to be wrong. Agreed and have been suggesting this; the NAO will make this winter.....HEAVY HEAVY MARCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 17, 2010 Author Share Posted November 17, 2010 Agreed and have been suggesting this; the NAO will make this winter.....HEAVY HEAVY MARCH. I don't think we'll have to just rely on March if the NAO is negative for a lot of the winter. Granted that is kind of how it played out in '55-'56....but years like '70-'71 and '64-'65 were pretty solid in the other months with a -NAO and a fairly potent Nina. I think we'll want to root for a -NAO/-PNA pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 I don't think we'll have to just rely on March if the NAO is negative for a lot of the winter. Granted that is kind of how it played out in '55-'56....but years like '70-'71 and '64-'65 were pretty solid in the other months with a -NAO and a fairly potent Nina. I think we'll want to root for a -NAO/-PNA pattern. As much as I've been touting a bad winter based on the analogs I chose 1970-1971 was definitely an analog that couldn't be ignored this upcoming winter and seeing how it came up so often it's always given me some hope that I may have a good winter after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted November 17, 2010 Share Posted November 17, 2010 EPO flip at that time seems suspicous to me. -NAO seems a lock. However, magnitude and how west based will say things about that storm suppression. Dr. No due out soon. That is still 250 plus hours out as well. At least we get colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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