Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 just wait. honestly. nothing has changed. i don't mean to come off like a jerk but threads were started on this pattern change idea on Eastern about 2 weeks ago. several folks have highlighted the period of thanksgiving week as "go time." we talked at length about not rushing pattern changes and how often guidance is too eager to break down one pattern and herald the arrival of a new one. that message must have been posted 3 dozen times in the last several weeks. day after day we talked about ignoring the long-term portion of the runs. you could probably go find posts from a bunch of us that made specific mention of Thanksgiving Day. LOL. and it's going to happen almost perfectly on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 honestly. nothing has changed. i don't mean to come off like a jerk but threads were started on this pattern change idea on Eastern about 2 weeks ago. several folks have highlighted the period of thanksgiving week as "go time." we talked at length about not rushing pattern changes and how often guidance is too eager to break down one pattern and herald the arrival of a new one. that message must have been posted 3 dozen times in the last several weeks. day after day we talked about ignoring the long-term portion of the runs. you could probably go find posts from a bunch of us that made specific mention of Thanksgiving Day. LOL. and it's going to happen almost perfectly on time. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 The ORIGINAL cold shot that was being talked about weeks ago on eastern was progged starting around this time. Longer it takes the better off we will all be........orh stated this many time on eastern how the models tend to the rush the change.....coastal wx also brought it. You should just read more and post a bit less.......Im south of knee highs, so im prob f'ed either way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 You should just read more and post a bit less...... did you really just say that? I have 19 posts over 4 days. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 did you really just say that? I have 19 posts over 4 days. LOL That about 5 post to many a day....cut it down to 2 and you will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 That about 5 post to many a day....cut it down to 2 and you will be fine impeccable math skills, ironic username. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 impeccable math skills, ironic username. Thankyou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 honestly. nothing has changed. i don't mean to come off like a jerk but threads were started on this pattern change idea on Eastern about 2 weeks ago. several folks have highlighted the period of thanksgiving week as "go time." we talked at length about not rushing pattern changes and how often guidance is too eager to break down one pattern and herald the arrival of a new one. that message must have been posted 3 dozen times in the last several weeks. day after day we talked about ignoring the long-term portion of the runs. you could probably go find posts from a bunch of us that made specific mention of Thanksgiving Day. LOL. and it's going to happen almost perfectly on time. Yes And several prominent folks at the last GTG were discussing this directly. All aboard!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 All aboard!!! I suppose I'll take the ride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 its not scaring you that the cold is constantly being pushed back? It was supposed to be cold starting now....then it moved to next week. Now even that's in question. Usually pushing back cold spells repeatedly is NOT a good sign If you are talking about the models, you are correct. The cold spell was originally supposed to occur in the 11-15 day timeframe when we first started discussing this, which would be this week. Without a doubt, the days that were originally progged as cold will be well above average. Several meteorologists did say not to rush the pattern change, that it would happen around Thanksgiving. This is a different story. However, if we get another cutter after Thanksgiving, then they will probably be incorrect too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 will...check your PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 After a breif cooldown this weekend, The last few days it was talked around turkey day going into the 1st of Dec getting cold, I don't think anythings has changed........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 If you are talking about the models, you are correct. The cold spell was originally supposed to occur in the 11-15 day timeframe when we first started discussing this, which would be this week. Without a doubt, the days that were originally progged as cold will be well above average. Several meteorologists did say not to rush the pattern change, that it would happen around Thanksgiving. This is a different story. However, if we get another cutter after Thanksgiving, then they will probably be incorrect too. i disagree with that to some extent. i think the gfs ensemble package was showing a typical gfs-based bias of rushing things and just being too bullish in general. but, to their credit, there is a prelim cold shot coming to the NE later this week/this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 If you are talking about the models, you are correct. The cold spell was originally supposed to occur in the 11-15 day timeframe when we first started discussing this, which would be this week. Without a doubt, the days that were originally progged as cold will be well above average. Several meteorologists did say not to rush the pattern change, that it would happen around Thanksgiving. This is a different story. However, if we get another cutter after Thanksgiving, then they will probably be incorrect too. 7-10+ days ago we all said it would start around Thanksgiving, and likely after. Given the biases of models being too progressive, it looks just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Hopefully the Euro ensembles are right in keeping heights out west from being low towards the end of the run, as the nao signal fades a bit. As of now, the one eyed monster in the GOA is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 honestly. nothing has changed. i don't mean to come off like a jerk but threads were started on this pattern change idea on Eastern about 2 weeks ago. several folks have highlighted the period of thanksgiving week as "go time." we talked at length about not rushing pattern changes and how often guidance is too eager to break down one pattern and herald the arrival of a new one. that message must have been posted 3 dozen times in the last several weeks. day after day we talked about ignoring the long-term portion of the runs. you could probably go find posts from a bunch of us that made specific mention of Thanksgiving Day. LOL. and it's going to happen almost perfectly on time. Well some certain weenies (they know who they are) were insisting on the permanent arrival of cold air would be by the 20th and not T-day. I think too many people bought into that idea. Everything seems right on track for the Thanksgiving idea. It looks good after that and we should see some legit snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 When you see posts like this...get ready..winter is coming hard and fast what thread is this in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Hopefully the Euro ensembles are right in keeping heights out west from being low towards the end of the run, as the nao signal fades a bit. As of now, the one eyed monster in the GOA is gone. Lets hope he drowned......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Can't speak for anyone else....but I'd take 3" of tree ripping, elm eradicating, oak owning zr accumulation right now or any day. Forget snow, bring on the iiice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Can't speak for anyone else....but I'd take 3" of tree ripping, elm eradicating, oak owning zr accumulation right now or any day. Forget snow, bring on the iiice. Are you nuts !!???!!! I like my power thank you ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 Can't speak for anyone else....but I'd take 3" of tree ripping, elm eradicating, oak owning zr accumulation right now or any day. Forget snow, bring on the iiice. Dec 2008 was awesome to experience but losing power really sucked. I couldn't post on the board during the the 2nd half of the storm and had to live at my cousin's house for 3 days afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Is anyone else having trouble viewing the ECM website? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Well some certain weenies (they know who they are) were insisting on the permanent arrival of cold air would be by the 20th and not T-day. I think too many people bought into that idea. Everything seems right on track for the Thanksgiving idea. It looks good after that and we should see some legit snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Well some certain weenies (they know who they are) were insisting on the permanent arrival of cold air would be by the 20th and not T-day. I think too many people bought into that idea. Everything seems right on track for the Thanksgiving idea. It looks good after that and we should see some legit snow chances. Basically everyone and the models did a great job with this forecast with the exception of one in particularly expecting deep chill to set in tomorrow and last through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 Dec 2008 was awesome to experience but losing power really sucked. I couldn't post on the board during the the 2nd half of the storm and had to live at my cousin's house for 3 days afterward. um ya i'll take snow........no need for excessive ice i mean i would like to experience a freezing rain storm.....since i grew up in raynham, ma and we never really had one. it would be cool to see it like 18f and pouring rain....but the damage that follows would suck and still yield no snow covered landscape.....so i'll take snow. Will you see any shot at some overunning sunday nite here? New 18z gfs want to bring in cooler air early wednesday morning next week. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 The pattern on the 12z euro op and 18z gfs op is almost like a loaded gun around Thanksgiving. Big trough pushing into the Midwest, polar high coming out of Canada, and active jet across the south. It's the op run at like D8-9..I know, but pretty impressive looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 No comments on Euro Ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 No comments on Euro Ens? They havent changed much....cold pattern for the foreseeable future after thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 16, 2010 Author Share Posted November 16, 2010 The pattern on the 12z euro op and 18z gfs op is almost like a loaded gun around Thanksgiving. Big trough pushing into the Midwest, polar high coming out of Canada, and active jet across the south. It's the op run at like D8-9..I know, but pretty impressive looking. Yeah I think we see our first legit winter event in that 4-5 day period starting Thanksgiving...if the actual T-day event doesn't happen then I think the next impulse will produce something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted November 16, 2010 Share Posted November 16, 2010 I can't wait till next week.. really I am excited... really.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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