Pattern Change thread

[ORH_wxman]

Given how negative the NAO looks around the 28th I find it hard to believe the storm would track like that...

Although if the PNA/EPO pattern are supporting a SE ridge I could see the SE ridge doing it's best to win out, in which case maybe we would see some sort of overrunning situation.

I'm not optimistic on anything before T-day...that storm has every right to be a lakes cutter with the extremely east based -NAO...especially since its just forming shortly before that.

We might get an overrunning event out of it, but if we don't, I don't care either way. That setup is a fairly decent long shot. Our chances will come after the cold sets in.

NZucker's socks get higher and more nervous if we have a s/w running out of the SW in the the pattern that follows T-day. That's where we will make bank if we are going to cash in. Its still quite early though....even if we don't cash in, we want to see a recurring type of pattern into December. Most of these Nina analogs that are showing up on the CPC site do not produce big snows in Boston until after Dec 10th.

[weatherwiz]

There's too much of a SE ridge to see a coastal, and it looks to me as if some energy is trying to phase into the PV over the Canadian Prairies, which is causing the system to strengthen rapidly and turn into a cutter. It needs to be weaker and have lower heights ahead of it if we want a more favorable overrunning situation.

Also, it's early in the season, which means the jet is naturally farther north and thus favors the inland/cutter solution. The storm occurs before meteorological winter even begins.

Yeah on second look it appears as if that's exactly what is happening.

The sE ridge though is doing everything it can to really kill us and I think that will be a common case this winter, despite what models will show in the long-range. The SE ridge really is not going anywhere, especially with the Nina likely to strengthen over the coming days and perhaps weeks. All this will do is further a -PNA/+EPO setup which those two combos alone scream SE ridge.

Plus you may know a bit more about this but isn't it still just a little too early for us to see real effects from the NAO? Doesn't the NAO better correlate with us more towards mid December and through mid March or so?

[nzucker]

Yeah on second look it appears as if that's exactly what is happening.

The sE ridge though is doing everything it can to really kill us and I think that will be a common case this winter, despite what models will show in the long-range. The SE ridge really is not going anywhere, especially with the Nina likely to strengthen over the coming days and perhaps weeks. All this will do is further a -PNA/+EPO setup which those two combos alone scream SE ridge.

Plus you may know a bit more about this but isn't it still just a little too early for us to see real effects from the NAO? Doesn't the NAO better correlate with us more towards mid December and through mid March or so?

Yes the NAO becomes more important later in the winter, especially as we get into February and March which is cut-off season. Having a severely -NAO in these months can allow cut-off lows to form off the East Coast and deliver the really big snowstorms like February 25, 2010, February/March 1958, April Fool's Day, etc.

The SE ridge seems to be well anchored which means we'll probably continue to see a strong gradient pattern as we enter December, with NNE having the best chances for snow. I'm just hoping that more arctic air can enter the map via a -EPO block so that the gradient moves south of NYC and allows my house and your house to see some good snowfalls on SW flow events or blooming Miller Bs. It's just going to be hard to get coastals because the +EPO/-PNA is keeping heights pretty high over the East and not letting anything amplify and redevelop.

[ORH_wxman]

Yes the NAO becomes more important later in the winter, especially as we get into February and March which is cut-off season. Having a severely -NAO in these months can allow cut-off lows to form off the East Coast and deliver the really big snowstorms like February 25, 2010, February/March 1958, April Fool's Day, etc.

The SE ridge seems to be well anchored which means we'll probably continue to see a strong gradient pattern as we enter December, with NNE having the best chances for snow. I'm just hoping that more arctic air can enter the map via a -EPO block so that the gradient moves south of NYC and allows my house and your house to see some good snowfalls on SW flow events or blooming Miller Bs. It's just going to be hard to get coastals because the +EPO/-PNA is keeping heights pretty high over the East and not letting anything amplify and redevelop.

No chance SNE would get in on that.

[weatherwiz]

I'm not optimistic on anything before T-day...that storm has every right to be a lakes cutter with the extremely east based -NAO...especially since its just forming shortly before that.

We might get an overrunning event out of it, but if we don't, I don't care either way. That setup is a fairly decent long shot. Our chances will come after the cold sets in.

NZucker's socks get higher and more nervous if we have a s/w running out of the SW in the the pattern that follows T-day. That's where we will make bank if we are going to cash in. Its still quite early though....even if we don't cash in, we want to see a recurring type of pattern into December. Most of these Nina analogs that are showing up on the CPC site do not produce big snows in Boston until after Dec 10th.

Yeah that's what I think will happen as well, once we are able to get that cold in place here the pattern that is in place should be much more favorable, the question is though how long will we remain in a favorable pattern?

I think I need to stop freaking out a bit lol...it's only mid November, but I'm scared b/c I think if we don't do it in December were screwed (or I'm screwed at least).

[weatherwiz]

Yes the NAO becomes more important later in the winter, especially as we get into February and March which is cut-off season. Having a severely -NAO in these months can allow cut-off lows to form off the East Coast and deliver the really big snowstorms like February 25, 2010, February/March 1958, April Fool's Day, etc.

The SE ridge seems to be well anchored which means we'll probably continue to see a strong gradient pattern as we enter December, with NNE having the best chances for snow. I'm just hoping that more arctic air can enter the map via a -EPO block so that the gradient moves south of NYC and allows my house and your house to see some good snowfalls on SW flow events or blooming Miller Bs. It's just going to be hard to get coastals because the +EPO/-PNA is keeping heights pretty high over the East and not letting anything amplify and redevelop.

I think were wasting the massive -NAO block the models are showing...we'd be MUCH better off if we were seeing a -NAO like this in January/February, it's quite possible but it seems like the indications from a lot of long-range people are that the NAO will end up being between slightly negative and slightly positive for the winter and that just won't be good enough.

Once (and if the -NAO block) does occur and once it begins to relax and the SE ridge really sets up shop it may not be going anywhere for quite a while...maybe only relaxing a bit if the PNA increases a bit and the EPO decreases a bit.

Hopefully the Nina begins to wane some and waters begin to warm so we can get some tropical forcing going and hope for an epic March.

[weatherwiz]

0z euro tries to pump up that ridge into eastern Alaska, western Canada and the western Us which would better allow for that cold air to seep into the upper Mid-west and into the Northeast but it's really fighting that SE ridge. Pretty tight temperature gradient over the Northeast.

[nzucker]

0z euro tries to pump up that ridge into eastern Alaska, western Canada and the western Us which would better allow for that cold air to seep into the upper Mid-west and into the Northeast but it's really fighting that SE ridge. Pretty tight temperature gradient over the Northeast.

Meh, the NAO stays way too east-based on the 0z ECM and another storm looks to cut to our west. We do have a +PNA trying to build since the GoA low is fairly far west, but the SE ridge is totally flexing its muscle and the Iceland block isn't helping.

[ORH_wxman]

Meh, the NAO stays way too east-based on the 0z ECM and another storm looks to cut to our west. We do have a +PNA trying to build since the GoA low is fairly far west, but the SE ridge is totally flexing its muscle and the Iceland block isn't helping.

Man that looks ugly from Dobbs Ferry and SW.

[nzucker]

Man that looks ugly from Dobbs Ferry and SW.

LOL.

Do you agree another cutter is coming, Will, at Day 10? It looks like the jet is starting to cut off a bit in the Plains?

[tacoman25]

Meh, the NAO stays way too east-based on the 0z ECM and another storm looks to cut to our west. We do have a +PNA trying to build since the GoA low is fairly far west, but the SE ridge is totally flexing its muscle and the Iceland block isn't helping.

Certainly looks like chilly air arriving in time for Thanksgiving.

[weatherwiz]

Meh, the NAO stays way too east-based on the 0z ECM and another storm looks to cut to our west. We do have a +PNA trying to build since the GoA low is fairly far west, but the SE ridge is totally flexing its muscle and the Iceland block isn't helping.

We will be saying this quite a bit over the next few months

[weatherwiz]

Certainly looks like chilly air arriving in time for Thanksgiving.

We definitely should go below-normal either right on or just after Thanksgiving, the coldest anomalies may stay off to our west and across Canada but that really isn't a big deal. As long as we are below-average and have an active northern stream jet we should get a decent amount of snow chances the first week to ten days of December.

[ORH_wxman]

LOL.

Do you agree another cutter is coming, Will, at Day 10? It looks like the jet is starting to cut off a bit in the Plains?

Yeah I think a cutter could happen near D10...i ave no confidence in any pattern prior to D10.Could be a frozen event here too...i have no idea.

[weatherwiz]

Here is at least a good combo being depicted by the GFS...for a short period anyway

[Damage In Tolland]

Wasn't there some significant interaction between much of the Mid Atlantic gang and Kevin? lol

Of course there was. They fell right into my trap. lol

[COPO]

This dosen't look good for us, but it is the 10 day GFS, however I really hope this is NOT the case.

[Tropopause_Fold]

[Damage In Tolland]

Yup...it's coming next week. I'm psyched

[CoastalWx]

Well whatever happens next weekend, I think the final week of November may hold something. Will might be close with his 29th for the 1st 2"+ event for his backyard. The NAO is strongly negative, while PNA is temporarily positive. This would give an opportunity for any s/w to amplify imo. I'd say any time from next weekend into the last week of November could have something..or at least this period has potential anyways. We'll have to see how this evolves.

[cpickett79]

the step down i.e moderation of the cold continues......if this continues Nzucker was all over it.

if we get a cutter the day AFTER thanksgiving i will begin drinking heavily for the entire winter.

The sound from the steady headed MET'S seems like they toned down their enthusiasm yet walk the tight rope of "no big change in what we've always seen"

Who will be the first met to say.....pattern change delayed

[cpickett79]

Well whatever happens next weekend, I think the final week of November may hold something. Will might be close with his 29th for the 1st 2"+ event for his backyard. The NAO is strongly negative, while PNA is temporarily positive. This would give an opportunity for any s/w to amplify imo. I'd say any time from next weekend into the last week of November could have something..or at least this period has potential anyways. We'll have to see how this evolves.

what about the thur-friday period next week.....is that torched now? torch extend?

[Tropopause_Fold]

the step down i.e moderation of the cold continues......if this continues Nzucker was all over it.

if we get a cutter the day AFTER thanksgiving i will begin drinking heavily for the entire winter.

The sound from the steady headed MET'S seems like they toned down their enthusiasm yet walk the tight rope of "no big change in what we've always seen"

Who will be the first met to say.....pattern change delayed

:weenie:

triple bunner for you.

[ChrisM]

This dosen't look good for us, but it is the 10 day GFS, however I really hope this is NOT the case.

id cry

[ChrisM]

Well whatever happens next weekend, I think the final week of November may hold something. Will might be close with his 29th for the 1st 2"+ event for his backyard. The NAO is strongly negative, while PNA is temporarily positive. This would give an opportunity for any s/w to amplify imo. I'd say any time from next weekend into the last week of November could have something..or at least this period has potential anyways. We'll have to see how this evolves.

its not scaring you that the cold is constantly being pushed back? It was supposed to be cold starting now....then it moved to next week. Now even that's in question. Usually pushing back cold spells repeatedly is NOT a good sign

[Damage In Tolland]

When you see posts like this...get ready..winter is coming hard and fast

Hammer time

[Tropopause_Fold]

its not scaring you that the cold is constantly being pushed back? It was supposed to be cold starting now....then it moved to next week. Now even that's in question. Usually pushing back cold spells repeatedly is NOT a good sign

:axe:

nothing is pushed back.

[ChrisM]

:axe:

nothing is pushed back.

just wait.

[Damage In Tolland]

its not scaring you that the cold is constantly being pushed back? It was supposed to be cold starting now....then it moved to next week. Now even that's in question. Usually pushing back cold spells repeatedly is NOT a good sign

It was never supposed to be cold this week. this week was supposed to torch all along.

One mistake I personally made was thinking the cold (much below) coming this weekend would lock in.

We have one more minor warmup next week..and then as Gibbs says..Hammer time. When Gibbs drops Hammertime on us..it means cold is coming

[ChrisM]

It was never supposed to be cold this week. this week was supposed to torch all along.

One mistake I personally made was thinking the cold (much below) coming this weekend would lock in.

We have one more minor warmup next week..and then as Gibbs says..Hammer time. When Gibbs drops Hammertime on us..it means cold is coming

The ORIGINAL cold shot that was being talked about weeks ago on eastern was progged starting around this time.