Pattern Change thread

[ChrisM]

did alan's site go down along with eastern?

[CT Rain]

I purposely waited to read this thread this afternoon till I saw the Euro.

One fairly mild day Monday and maybe Tuesday and then the cold press wins out like we thought.

Looks to me like it wants to snow on us on the holiday itself. Or maybe a snow to mix look? Looks awesome to me.

WTF dude... I thought the only warm day was Wednesday pre-fropa? Make up your mind.

[OKpowdah]

did alan's site go down along with eastern?

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/278-my-website/

[mahk_webstah]

Not really to me this time of year....as I said, really no difference between 49F and 55F...both above average and both sucky for snow threats.

To me, the potential for fun was never really going to start until near Thanksgiving and beyond once we got to about a week ago...this crap before that is just the prelude. Transient airmasses signifying that a change is coming. I'm just hoping that we see a nice reload in early December sometime.

This time of year I'd prefer the torch....before there is any snowcover to lose, let it get warm so we can enjoy it. I read DT's discussion today and it was a bit depressing altho perhaps more for the ma than us.

[ChrisM]

http://www.americanw...278-my-website/

thank ya!

[Damage In Tolland]

WTF dude... I thought the only warm day was Wednesday pre-fropa? Make up your mind.

Look up definiton of "mild"

[CT Rain]

Look up definiton of "mild"

So Mon/Tue are "fairly mild" and Wednesday could be a torch. Sounds like +6 to me.

[Damage In Tolland]

So Mon/Tue are "fairly mild" and Wednesday could be a torch. Sounds like +6 to me.

Wed looks chilly as the front comes thru maybe Tues nite?

[CCPSUSuperstorm2010]

That - to neutral PNA is killing me, I would like to see it go positive, but it is not always necessary for a snowstorm, the DEC 26-27th 2004 snowstorm was with a +NAO/-PNA/+AO, complete opposite of an ideal pattern and we still had an explosive storm system come up the East Coast.

[MaineJayhawk]

Lots of snow chatter for TDay ... diggin' it.

[dryslot]

Lots of snow chatter for TDay ... diggin' it.

Looks to be a couple of chances up this way....

[ORH_wxman]

I purposely waited to read this thread this afternoon till I saw the Euro.

One fairly mild day Monday and maybe Tuesday and then the cold press wins out like we thought.

Looks to me like it wants to snow on us on the holiday itself. Or maybe a snow to mix look? Looks awesome to me.

So the original idea that some us had that the real pattern shift here doesn't occur until T-day and the cold this weekend is just a transient shot is correct?

[New England Storm]

nice turkey day winter event on the ec

Some of the local mets on Boston tv talked about it.

[Tropopause_Fold]

[ORH_wxman]

ECMWF ensemble mean continues its main theme of big -NAO building in next week and then sticking around and possibly even retrograding a bit to the NW the week after Thanksgiving. Looks like a pretty cold weekend after T-day...not 1989-esque, but it will feel like mid/late December I think rather than late November.

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles still look good. Actually, they look like they almost want to have a split flow in the west towards D15-16. Hmmm.

Will and I were talking earlier, hopefully the pattern doesn't crap out in mid December. That's the only thing that could go wrong I think, but who knows.

[Tropopause_Fold]

LOL...love how those ec ens posts all came within the same minute.

[ORH_wxman]

The euro ensembles still look good. Actually, they look like they almost want to have a split flow in the west towards D15-16. Hmmm.

Will and I were talking earlier, hopefully the pattern doesn't crap out in mid December. That's the only thing that could go wrong I think, but who knows.

I saw that...past 300 hours, they almost have a little ridging N of the PAC NW and some troughing down into CA. Also we still have some ridging up N of the Bering straight into the Arctic ocean even though the GOA low is back...so I think that in conjunction with a -NAO should keep some cold air supply funneling into the northern tier of the CONUS.

[CoastalWx]

I saw that...past 300 hours, they almost have a little ridging N of the PAC NW and some troughing down into CA. Also we still have some ridging up N of the Bering straight into the Arctic ocean even though the GOA low is back...so I think that in conjunction with a -NAO should keep some cold air supply funneling into the northern tier of the CONUS.

Yeah that could be interesting with blocking to our north. It's far out there, but neat to see. I wonder if we do relax towards the first week of December and then maybe another shot?

[weatherwiz]

I think we definitely see some warmth next week...some days will be into the 60's before the front passes through.

[CoastalWx]

The new euro trimonthly forecasts are in and they are a shade cooler for DJF. Looks like some nice cold anomalies in central and western Canada. JFM seems about the same, but FMA looks a little cooler as well. They don't really show much of a -NAO but do have an Aleutian ridge. I should say they have ridging in the NATL, but it's not really a classic -nao.

[weatherwiz]

I think the NAO is going to be way looked into way too much this winter given the state of the Pacific, looks like the La Nina may actually begin to increase again over the next few weeks as another huge burst of trade winds occurs. The Pacific is so cold right now and with all that cold water in the North Pacific it's going to be hard for the Nina to weaken some. With the Pacific so cold it's really going to be hard to get the PNA to go anywhere near positive, we should be in a -PNA state for much of the winter and the EPO should be mainly on the + side. A -PNA/+EPO combo alone means SE ridge and the moderate to strong Nina will only help to increase the SE ridge.

Unless we get lucky at times to get the NAO negative enough to allow for some cold shots to work in I don't see the NAO helping us much at all this winter. Our hope will be to get a massive ridge to develop and push up into eastern Alaska so all that cold air that builds up in central Canada can work it's way into the Northeast when we do see -NAO phases.

[CoastalWx]

Another one of the models or ensembles suite have similar forecasts. Not much different for DJF..maybe a hair cooler, but it did shift lower H5 anomalies south into southern and southwest Canada, as compared to Oct. One thing that these models are hinting at is a big time gradient somewhere across the northern part of the US and southern Canada. The theme is cold western Canada, and warm southeast.

[Ginx snewx]

<br />I think the NAO is going to be way looked into way too much this winter given the state of the Pacific, looks like the La Nina may actually begin to increase again over the next few weeks as another huge burst of trade winds occurs.  The Pacific is so cold right now and with all that cold water in the North Pacific it's going to be hard for the Nina to weaken some.  With the Pacific so cold it's really going to be hard to get the PNA to go anywhere near positive, we should be in a -PNA state for much of the winter and the EPO should be mainly on the + side.  A -PNA/+EPO combo alone means SE ridge and the moderate to strong Nina will only help to increase the SE ridge.<br /><br />Unless we get lucky at times to get the NAO negative enough to allow for some cold shots to work in I don't see the NAO helping us much at all this winter.  Our hope will be to get a massive ridge to develop and push up into eastern Alaska so all that cold air that builds up in central Canada can work it's way into the Northeast when we do see -NAO phases.<br />

Sadly you are very misinformed, NAO rules the roost around here.

[OKpowdah]

Sadly you are very misinformed, NAO rules the roost around here.

meh

[Ginx snewx]

<br />meh<br /><br /><br />

Wiz and I' s Backyard, highly dependent on NAO, you snow whatever unless it is at record neg levels

[OKpowdah]

Wiz and I' s Backyard, highly dependent on NAO, you snow whatever unless it is at record neg levels

lol

Yeah it starts to become more dependent, but the Pacific can really dominate a lot of the time.

[Ginx snewx]

<br /><img src="http://www.americanwx.com/bb/public/style_emoticons/default/axesmiley.png" /> lol<br /><br />Yeah it starts to become more dependent, but the Pacific can really dominate a lot of the time.<br />

Check out Gibbs thread on EPO , Brian Va Wxman explains a lot why 07 rocked

[CoastalWx]

lol

Yeah it starts to become more dependent, but the Pacific can really dominate a lot of the time.

Yeah we did it during Dec '07, but the PAC was just right and we (well specifically I) walked the line. I'd still rather see a -nao, especially if southern Canada is cold. That said, it's clear the Pacific can help..even if the Atlantic sucks. I agree the Pac can dominate, but at least we have another ace up our sleeve on this side of the country.

[Ginx snewx]

<br />Yeah we did it during Dec '07, but the PAC was just right and we (well specifically I) walked the line. I'd still rather see a -nao, especially if southern Canada is cold. That said, it's clear the Pacific can help..even if the Atlantic sucks. I agree the Pac can dominate, but at least we have another ace up our sleeve on this side of the country.<br />

Low level cold undercutting high 5 h heights, sw flow, heavy heavy low level cold ala 94