GaWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 1) Here are the major (3.5"+) S/IP dates for Atlanta since 1877 with the most active period bolded: Dec: 2, 3-6, 11-13, 29 Jan: 1, 2-3, 7, 7-8, 9, 9-10, 12, 18, 18-19, 22, 23, 26, 28, 29-30 Feb: 10, 11-12, 11-12, 12, 15, 15-16, 17-18, 21, 23, 24-25, 26 Mar: 1, 2, 11, 13, 14, 24 2) Now, here are the dates that I've been able to find to this point for CHS and/or SAV receiving 2"+ of S/IP since 1726 with the most active period bolded: Dec: 6, 15, 17, 22-24, 27, 30-31 Jan: 9-11, 13, 25-6, 30 Feb: 8, 9-10, 11, 12, 13, 14-15, 15, 21-22, 25, 28 Mar. : 3-4, 4, 4 --------------------------------------- By the way, only three of the 14 snows that counted within the 2/8-18 period counted for both locations. So, we're talking about 11 different snowstorms during 2/8-18 (avg. of one/day) and NONE during 1/31-2/7! So eight straight days of none during a midwinter period that one might think is primetime vs. no more than four straight of none during any other point of winter 12/1-3/4! Especially with 2/10-18 having been the most active for ATL and 2/8-15 for CHS/SAV, why have none of them seen big snow during the first week in Feb, which immediately precedes these very active periods? What is it about the first week in Feb. that could possibly limit big snow chances vs. the 2nd week in Feb.? Any theories? Or is this likely due mainly to pure randomness which resulted in the 2nd week of Feb. getting the greatest activity of the winter at the expense of the 1st week of Feb. getting the least activity? Any opinions would be much appreciated. Keep in mind that this is based on 130+ years of data for ATL and nearly 300 years for CHS/SAV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You might PM Donald Sutherland and see if your data matches any that he has on the teleconnections indices. FWIW, the first week in Feb is 3 weeks after our coldest days (on average) for the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was telling my mother, over dinner, about negative sun spots, and influences of the major solar bodies. Snow depths in Siberia, and the new solar minimum and maybe the effects are more micro, and immediate, than I ever thought, and then I told her about your climo, and wondered about the possible patterns that could repeat, and looked at the sun, and the moon, and meteological winter, and possible blocking cycles, and average winter thaws, etc. What could have an effect each year, for over a century, on the first week of Feb.? And she said, " February is shorter". And I was laughing, and she said, "It makes as much sense as anything else", And I had to agree. Me, I think we have to look at this year and try to figure out what was different this year, at Christmas, than any other, and we'll get closer to the direction to look. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 You might PM Donald Sutherland and see if your data matches any that he has on the teleconnections indices. FWIW, the first week in Feb is 3 weeks after our coldest days (on average) for the year. Good suggestion. He's so good with this kind of thing. Yes, it is 3 weeks after the coldest on avg. However, the following week is 4 weeks after/a little warmer on avg. and is the most active of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I was telling my mother, over dinner, about negative sun spots, and influences of the major solar bodies. Snow depths in Siberia, and the new solar minimum and maybe the effects are more micro, and immediate, than I ever thought, and then I told her about your climo, and wondered about the possible patterns that could repeat, and looked at the sun, and the moon, and meteological winter, and possible blocking cycles, and average winter thaws, etc. What could have an effect each year, for over a century, on the first week of Feb.? And she said, " February is shorter". And I was laughing, and she said, "It makes as much sense as anything else", And I had to agree. Me, I think we have to look at this year and try to figure out what was different this year, at Christmas, than any other, and we'll get closer to the direction to look. T Tony, But keep in mind that I'm not comparing all of Feb. to all of Jan., which would obviously give an advantage to Jan. just based on # of days in the month. I'm comparing the very quiet (with regard to S/IP) 1st week in Feb. to the very active 2nd week in Feb. by the way, the 1st week in Feb. has produced three ZR storms fwiw. So icewise, it hasn't been quiet although not as active as the last week in Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
augustagaweather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can you link me to the location that you pulled this data? I'd like to see the trends for AGS and CAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tony, But keep in mind that I'm not comparing all of Feb. to all of Jan., which would obviously give an advantage to Jan. just based on # of days in the month. I'm comparing the very quiet (with regard to S/IP) 1st week in Feb. to the very active 2nd week in Feb. by the way, the 1st week in Feb. has produced three ZR storms fwiw. So icewise, it hasn't been quiet although not as active as the last week in Jan. Lol, I know, Larry, but I'll let you explain that to her...I know better. My guess is if we had records for a few hundred more years we'd see an evening out. To bad we don't have records from Terminus and Martha'sVille. Or do we? I've never looked into it. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can you link me to the location that you pulled this data? I'd like to see the trends for AGS and CAE. I'd love to see the AGS/CAE trends and compare. Unfortunately, the main link is the public library system of GA...lol...in combo with some things I've gotten off of the internet in various locations from time to time. I researched old newspapers (SAV and ATL) on microfilm to gather this data. I guess you could check out your library if you have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 5, 2011 Author Share Posted February 5, 2011 Not that it is a surprise, but I think it is now safe to say that GA/SC will, once again, not have a sig. snowstorm during the first week in FEB. Also, there's at least a threat of a sig. snowstorm for the 2nd week in FEB. No surprise there. Isn't climo a fascinating and useful tool? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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