seahawkbaseball#6 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Second system in gulf?? HP to the north....bing what you got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro @ 48HR. Slower. 1006mb LP off Mobile, AL. Heights a little higher on the east coast. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110124060042.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 60HR, 1000mb LP just east of Atlanta. H5 closed off over central AL/GA line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 72HR, 989mb LP just off the VA coast http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110124060747.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 can i get qpf for TYS or just generally how ETN fairs per the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not good for central/enc however if this works out, cold air will follow and I like what's coming down the road..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I love this run. Colder and slower than the previous run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 can i get qpf for TYS or just generally how ETN fairs per the euro? Comma head goes through ETN, but 850s are very warm ahead of the system since it ramps up. 850's crash on the backside. Don't have QPF yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I love this run. Colder and slower than the previous run! But is it colder and slower for NE GA/ SW NC/ NW SC? I don't understand the maps that much, especially the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have been trying to hold out hope, and the Euro is somewhat encouraging, but I think the warm surface air will win out in the end. The GFS MOS is 49 degrees here Wednesday- too warm probably but will it be off by15 degrees? I think in GA we can stick a fork in this one, it is just wish forecasting to forecast anything but rain except in the mountains. I need a break from constant model watching anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have been trying to hold out hope, and the Euro is somewhat encouraging, but I think the warm surface air will win out in the end. The GFS MOS is 49 degrees here Wednesday- too warm probably but will it be off by15 degrees? I think in GA we can stick a fork in this one, it is just wish forecasting to forecast anything but rain except in the mountains. I need a break from constant model watching anyway. Was hoping the Euro would give me a big smile on my face...I don't like cold rains....looks like I'll have to endure it, though. Wanted to say thanks Cheeznado for all you've said about this storm...I've learned a lot from you, Foothills, and others...wish it would have been a big storm like the Euro originally had it, but so is life! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro needs to bomb a little more for me to jump back onto the ole snow train. WAA rushes out ahead of the system as the storm deepens from 1006mb -> 989mb (17mb drop in 24hrs). Definite signature of a deformation band with a huge comma head setting up shop in N. MS/S TN/N. AL IF the lower levels supported it. Vort doesn't close off until over central AL. If lower levels cooled sufficiently, could be a rapid changeover on the north side I would say generally above US 278 corridor. I-20 corridor looks pretty warm still. As 850's crash, could be a brief changeover on the backside down to I-20 as everything pulls out. Outside of the mountains, still pretty warm. Note the precip shield extending back into TX with the dry slot all the way into GA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yea the trends have not been encouraging... we need a stronger 500mb low that goes negative tilt over southern GA or SC. Instead we are getting a weaker 500mb low that goes negative tilt too early, which ushers in a lot of WAA, but is still not strong enough to produce enough dynamical cooling to change heavy rain to snow in areas other than ETN and WNC. Even for these two regions, the trends are away from a significant snowstorm, but more like the potential for a few sloppy inches on the back end. Sure the nam still looks cold, but its pretty much in its own world right now with regards to the surface pressure setup. In the end, this has been a frustrating storm to forecast, and I get the feeling we are not done yet.... and there are more mysteries... both good and bad that have yet to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Uhhh, It's SNOWING outside right now!!! Dusting on the ground!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yea, be something if this little wave coming through can hang on. 6z Nam and GFS show backside snow coming through Triad Wed, at end of rain event. Im ready for us to get our good rain and whatever happen to happen with WED system, so we can move onto the next one. This has been a fustrating chase to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Uhhh, It's SNOWING outside right now!!! Dusting on the ground!!! Dang right, the ground is white in Oconee county...wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Somebody wake up Robert, he's fixing to get snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is an awesome surprise for the upstate, a light dusting all the way to NC! Helps ease the pain of the next system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Somebody wake up Robert, he's fixing to get snow! so far, nothing. It sort of dried up just north of GSP and is having a hard time coming back together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ha FFC, this is what happens when you have to change your forecast twenty times because of following the guidance to much. The flips make you flip your forecast every 6hrs also...Now back to Snow chances Wednesday morning and accumulations possible..hmmm shocker.. FFC: HOWEVER... THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE CHANCES FOR SNOW ACROSS NORTH GA... INITIALLY TUESDAY MORNING IF ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN SPREAD INTO NORTH GA BEFORE TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING. HOWEVER... ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE LIGHT CONSIDERING THE EXPECTED LIMITED MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. TEMPS WARM ABOVE FREEZING BY MID TUESDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN AN ALL RAIN EVENT TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS THE GREATER WINTRY WEATHER THREAT MIGHT BE ACROSS NORTH GA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING... MAINLY FROM 5 AM THROUGH 11 AM WHILE AMPLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE SPREADS OVER A MUCH COLDER AIR MASS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NW. TIMING SUGGEST A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MIGHT BE POSSIBLE OVER NW GA BY 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN SPREADS EASTWARD ACROSS NW GA BY 6-8 AM. ALTHOUGH LIGHT SNOW MAY BE SEEN AS FAR SOUTH AS A NEWNAN TO ATHENS LINE... THE GREATER CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE WELL NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR... AND MAINLY NORTH OF A ROME TO CANTON TO CLEVELAND LINE WHERE SURFACE AND WET BULB TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO FREEZING. THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE LIFTS TO THE NE. AT THIS TIMES...IT APPEARS PARTS OF NORTH GA COULD SEE FROM 0.5 TO 2 INCHES WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATER ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NW GA.[/b] SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER COLD CANADIAN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW. EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE GREATER AMOUNTS MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE... MAV AND MET GUIDANCE NUMBERS WERE CLOSE SO DID NOT STRAY FAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Noticed in this morning's analysis that is it -29 atop Mount Washington in New Hampshire. Would be nice of that cold air in the NE HP would get blocked in and funnel down the face of the Apps into the Tuesday - Wednesday storm. For Tuesday - Wednesday, morning analysis still supports it being too warm in the lowest 7000 to 10000 feet of the atmosphere to be snow anywhere outside of the NC High Country for snow. Even in the NC High Country there may be some mixing issues until the low starts to pass and additional cold air gets drawn in. Good chance of warning criteria snow in the High Country followed by some upslope on the back end. On a separate note, there has been about an inch of accumulation with the disturbance moving through Avery Country this morning with temperatures in the upper teens to around 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Good write-up from HSV this morning: THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE SFC LOW OVER THE MO VALLEY...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS ONGOING. THE LATEST MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT THIS SFC LOW GETTING LIFTED INTO THE OH VALLEY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH OUT OF THE NWRN STATES CARVES ITS WAY INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE TODAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND W OF THE I-65 CORRIDOR WITH THE DEPARTING LOW. THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF THIS MORNING`S FORECAST THEN SHIFTS BACK TOWARD THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OUT OF SE TX IS XPCTED TO DEVELOP...AIDED BY THE ONCOMING UPPER TROUGH AXIS. AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFT OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND TOWARD THE TN VALLEY AREA...THE SFC LOW WILL TAKE A MORE ERLY TRACK ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF REGION ON TUE. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE IS FED NWD INTO THE REGION WITH THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST MODELS. THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR DIVING SWD BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH IS WHERE THE MODELS DIFFERS. A COLDER SOLUTION WOULD ALLOW FOR A RAPID CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN TO SNOW TUE EVENING...AS THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO LIFT TOWARD THE NE. THIS WOULD ALSO TRANSLATE INTO POSSIBLE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. IN CONTRAST...SOME DELAY OF THE COLD AIR SURGE/WARMER SOLUTION TUE EVENING WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE OF A MIXTURE OF RAIN OR SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW LATE TUE NIGHT. THIS WOULD CERTAINLY CUT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN HALF AS WELL...OR MORE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WOW from BMX: IT IS BECOMING MORE APPARENT THAT THERE WILL BE TWO WAVES OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE FIRST WAVE ON TUESDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT PASSES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. SEVERE WEATHER MENTIONED FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS...BUT CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN ON THE STABLE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW...AND LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE DIFFICULT PART OF THE FORECAST COMES WITH THE SECOND WAVE OF PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW THAT PRODUCED THE SURFACE LOW MOVES RIGHT OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE ROBUST LIFT WITH THIS UPPER LOW...WITH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION NEAR LOW CENTER. FORCING WITHIN THIS COLD POCKET ALOFT CAN PRODUCE DYNAMICALLY COOLING OF THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWEST TWO THOUSAND FEET OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS. LOCAL FORECASTING SNOW TECHNIQUES PREDICT MOSTLY RAIN AS THE PRECIPITATION TYPE... BUT IT IS HARD TO IGNORE MODEL GENERATED SNOWFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST ONE-HALF INCH FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-20...WITH THE NAM MODEL SHOWING UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS MARION AND WINSTON COUNTIES. IF THE COLUMN CAN COOL SUFFICIENTLY...IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT SNOWFALL RATES COULD DROP SEVERAL INCHES IN ONE HOUR. THE FORECAST WILL STILL FOLLOW A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MENTIONED IN LOCAL HAZARD PRODUCTS...JUST NOT GET INTO ANY SPECIFIC AMOUNTS AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nothing to report here in rutherford county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 JAN is def. on it this morning: WHEN WE GET INTO TUESDAY NIGHT IS WHEN THE TRICKY PORTION OF THE FORECAST COMMENCES. AS STATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THERE DOES LOOK TO BE A CHANCE OF SNOW MIXING IN WITH RAIN BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY (MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE TWENTY). LATEST ROUND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS COMING IN HAS ACTUALLY INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL OCCUR...AND ALSO INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH SNOW MAY FALL IN SOME AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR IN MS TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATION. THE EUROPEAN MODEL WAS MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWED IN GENERATING OUR SPECIFIC FORECAST SINCE IT HAS SHOWN THE BEST CONTINUITY WITH REGARDS TO THIS SYSTEM OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND DOES NOT SHOW AN OUTLYING SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THAT SAID...THIS EUROPEAN MODEL STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAINLY TOO WARM TO SUPPORT SNOW...BUT THE EXPECTED INTENSE AND VERY COLD UPPER LOW CENTER TRACKING OVERHEAD SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH DYNAMIC COOLING INFLUENCE FROM ALOFT TO STILL ALLOW A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO GET TO THE SURFACE NORTH OF I-20. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN ANY SNOW FALLS IN THESE AREAS WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING A HUGE IMPACT ON ROADS WITH MOST (IF ANY) ACCUMULATIONS PROBABLY JUST CONFINED TO GRASSY AREAS AND ELEVATED SURFACES. WILL OFFER THE CAVEAT THAT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY THAT A BAND OF HEAVY AND WET SNOW WILL FALL IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 82 CORRIDOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 3 INCHES. IF SUCH WERE TO OCCUR THEN POWERLINES AND TREES COULD REACT NEGATIVELY. WILL UPDATE THE HWO ACCORDINGLY. EXPECT ANY RAIN OR SNOW TO BE MOVING OUT BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LOWS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 30 TO 35 DEGREES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. /BB/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Local National Weather Services West of the Mtns are saying Whoa with all the just rain talk right this moment.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This whole thing is one big pile of fail still in my view. Very frustrating for sure. I guess the ULL is a last ditch hope but in central NC that would likely even be north of the Triangle if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice dusting this am, enough to cover driveway and decks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This whole thing is one big pile of fail still in my view. Very frustrating for sure. I guess the ULL is a last ditch hope but in central NC that would likely even be north of the Triangle if anything. You mean for the central Carolinas?? Might want to clarify that part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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