Rankin5150 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run has the 5H closing off much futher north than the NAM for sure, and has strong WAA in the Carolinas as a result at between 48 and 54 hours. I think the 2 western waves look stronger so that might have propped up the Alabama low. So this is good for eastern TN/Ky and WVa snow. I think in this case (taking the 0z NAM and GFS only) a blend of the two would have the track a little further east and the 5h closing further south. Usually, the NAM would be the better option with temps and the GFS with Precip amts. At least I think so. Either way, people in the Carolinas cannot throw in the towel just yet, IMHO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like when I get the most of my qpf temps are close to snow, I think ? WED 00Z 26-JAN 1.8 3.5 1017 80 89 0.05 562 549 WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.4 2.8 1013 89 84 0.04 559 549 WED 12Z 26-JAN 1.3 4.1 1007 93 85 0.03 555 549 WED 18Z 26-JAN 1.8 0.4 1003 96 98 0.26 545 543 THU 00Z 27-JAN 0.0 -0.9 1008 93 87 0.27 548 542 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, the GFS is a soaking rain here, at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 UKMET has not wavered from it's solution. http://vortex.plymou...10124040453.gif I haven't really been following the Ukie but has it been showing such a strong CAD all along? I would have to assume that come Wednesday morning there would be a fair amount of frozen/freezing precip in the prime cad areas if the map you posted is correct. That's a VERY strong cad signature. TW. What kind of cad is that anyway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like when I get the most of my qpf temps are close to snow, I think ? WED 00Z 26-JAN 1.8 3.5 1017 80 89 0.05 562 549 WED 06Z 26-JAN 1.4 2.8 1013 89 84 0.04 559 549 WED 12Z 26-JAN 1.3 4.1 1007 93 85 0.03 555 549 WED 18Z 26-JAN 1.8 0.4 1003 96 98 0.26 545 543 THU 00Z 27-JAN 0.0 -0.9 1008 93 87 0.27 548 542 Thats what i said in my post above. Dry slot till the big snow band passes thru. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I haven't really been following the Ukie but has it been showing such a strong CAD all along? I would have to assume that come Wednesday morning there would be a fair amount of frozen/freezing precip in the prime cad areas if the map you posted is correct. That's a VERY strong cad signature. TW. What kind of cad is that anyway? Where is the CAD signature you are speaking of? I don't see a high pressure up in the New York/Ontario area. Maybe I'm just missing it, though. The Plymouth map is kind of small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thats what i said in my post above. Dry slot till the big snow band passes thru. Who knows they will have a different solution every run up til 24 hrs out probably...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Even in DC, All tv mets in DC tonight say it will be a mostly rain event. They are mentioning snow on next Sunday though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 well, looking ahead...we get a decent blast of cold after wednesday's storm. There's some energy over Baja at 108 hours...I wonder what will eventually happen with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Where is the CAD signature you are speaking of? I don't see a high pressure up in the New York/Ontario area. Maybe I'm just missing it, though. The Plymouth map is kind of small. I'm looking at the "V" to the east of the mountains which is a strong cad signature. What's really wierd here is that the area of "low" pressure in the northeast is quite a bit higher than the lp over Alabama and gives the kink in the isobars. I've always seen this in the past with hp, but never with lp. I guess I'd scrap it. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 well, looking ahead...we get a decent blast of cold after wednesday's storm. There's some energy over Baja at 108 hours...I wonder what will eventually happen with it? I do not have access to any of the Euro maps (so I never get to see them). However, I THINK Foothills said something about the Euro showing a storm for late this week. That energy in the Baja may the player coming on the field for the late week system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 next weekend looking interesting...PNA ridge popping up, massive upper low in Canada and the baja energy spilling out through 4 corners region..precip breaking out in West Texas.. at 144 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The only or put it this way best chance we have outside the mtns, is to have this surface low come across the gulfcoast and up the GA coast, with the ULL chasing it across AL,GA then get stacked off the GA/SC coast. If the surface low comes across to far north like the gfs just laid out, then WAA is gonna overwhelm. That NAM solution tracked the surface low so far south, that it saved us from getting overwhelmed with the warm air, thus setting the table up better when the ULL tracked by underneath us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I do not have access to any of the Euro maps (so I never get to see them). However, I THINK Foothills said something about the Euro showing a storm for late this week. That energy in the Baja may the player coming on the field for the late week system. Possible storm. Doesn't really truly develop on the 12z Euro. Here is the first one showing up early Friday. Then there is one in the usual 9-10 frame. http://vortex.plymou...10124042854.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z UKMET @ 72hrs not going to cut it @ H5 I am afraid, would like to the see the EC similar before jumping ship, but 541 over Roanoke Rapids would confine a changeover to areas north and west of RDU if it verifies... Like the backside parcels though, that could get interesting here in the East around 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've been away since mid afternoon. Were the problems with the balloon data fixed, or are we still on the edge of our seats for garbage models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I haven't really been following the Ukie but has it been showing such a strong CAD all along? I would have to assume that come Wednesday morning there would be a fair amount of frozen/freezing precip in the prime cad areas if the map you posted is correct. That's a VERY strong cad signature. TW. What kind of cad is that anyway? In my opinion, it looks like the isobars are bending in from the northeast from the High off the North Atlantic. The only problem is the air trajectory is going over a fetch of the ocean which would modify any cold air. No good for us unless it comes over land from the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think I had an impact on my local weather forecaster on TV. lol. He sent out a facebook message earlier today and was talking about everything staying south of KTRI and the temps being too warm for whatever did fall, except in the mountains. I quickly messaged him back and told him I'd be very cautious of using only American models and he should look at all the other models too. He hasn't been on air here for very long, and he moved from the upper midwest. I referenced Jan of 1998 for him and mentioned that he should ask Mark Reynolds (normal TV weather Met) about that one that was predicted to be low 40s and rain. We ended up with over 20 inches and they missed that forecast at EVERY turn, even while it was happening. Just a few minutes ago, he showed the American models and then made a point of emphasis about "watching" other models that looked to yield potentially accumulating snow. I take this as a small victory and think it was my message to him that made him at least mention the possibility of something other than rain.. If this belongs in the banter thread, please feel free to move it. I tried to do a simple copy and put it there, but for whatever reason wouldn't let me copy it. I didn't have the energy to do it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 well i am looking down the road as this one to me will not provide me any work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpsteffe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 next weekend looking interesting...PNA ridge popping up, massive upper low in Canada and the baja energy spilling out through 4 corners region..precip breaking out in West Texas.. at 144 hours It does look quite interesting. A +PNA is actually something we have been lacking for much of the winter, but it looks establish itself for the next several days. I think the first week of February could be interesting for us here in the southeast as it looks like there will be a s/w digging down into the Four Corners region and cold air in place over our area. The ECMWF is hinting at the potential for a Gulf low. Just taking a quick glance, it appears to have a few more of the ingredients we need for a winter storm down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think I had an impact on my local weather forecaster on TV. lol. He sent out a facebook message earlier today and was talking about everything staying south of KTRI and the temps being too warm for whatever did fall, except in the mountains. I quickly messaged him back and told him I'd be very cautious of using only American models and he should look at all the other models too. He hasn't been on air here for very long, and he moved from the upper midwest. I referenced Jan of 1998 for him and mentioned that he should ask Mark Reynolds (normal TV weather Met) about that one that was predicted to be low 40s and rain. We ended up with over 20 inches and they missed that forecast at EVERY turn, even while it was happening. Just a few minutes ago, he showed the American models and then made a point of emphasis about "watching" other models that looked to yield potentially accumulating snow. I take this as a small victory and think it was my message to him that made him at least mention the possibility of something other than rain.. If this belongs in the banter thread, please feel free to move it. I tried to do a simple copy and put it there, but for whatever reason wouldn't let me copy it. I didn't have the energy to do it over. Just spoke with him before his cast and he said he did check out all of the models and that alot was still to be ironed out.. I mentioned the 0z runs and he said he had not got a chance to check them yet. He is a good guy and a good , young Met and one that will only get better as he is not just a Met for the Job but, an enthusiast(weather freak like us,lol) as well of whom will become one of the best in the area, i.m.o.. That Jan. 98 storm was a doozy that caught everybody by surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It does look quite interesting. A +PNA is actually something we have been lacking for much of the winter, but it looks establish itself for the next several days. I think the first week of February could be interesting for us here in the southeast as it looks like there will be a s/w digging down into the Four Corners region and cold air in place over our area. The ECMWF is hinting at the potential for a Gulf low. Just taking a quick glance, it appears to have a few more of the ingredients we need for a winter storm down here. With how the pattern has been to date, I can only imagine what would happen if we'd get a -AO, +PNA and -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If you look at the ensemble means from the 18z run, there's some amazing agreement this far out for days 9-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Canadian is in the Ukie camp. Amazing that two models go up the coast and two go up through central AL. http://www.weatherof...ast/531_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It does look quite interesting. A +PNA is actually something we have been lacking for much of the winter, but it looks establish itself for the next several days. I think the first week of February could be interesting for us here in the southeast as it looks like there will be a s/w digging down into the Four Corners region and cold air in place over our area. The ECMWF is hinting at the potential for a Gulf low. Just taking a quick glance, it appears to have a few more of the ingredients we need for a winter storm down here. Agree, and the first ingredient more importantly compared to a -NAO is the cross polar flow, which both the EC and GFS ens mean have, For central and eastern NC this is key, however, one has to worry about suppression at this stage given what is crashing down through the plains, although that is a good signal at the range in that it has more potential of trending north compared to south given a true Arctic high on the backside compared to a retrograding block, which would overwhelm the system and send it towards Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Just looked at the Meteogram for Asheville Regional Airport and snow totals went down from 6inches to around an inch Can anyone provide a alternative snowfall forecast for Asheville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the computer model developers are toying with us. ( Hey, lets make up a storm throw some crazy numbers around and watch these crazy weather geeks, get all worked up). Before you know it the next weekend storm will be here and we will still be waiting for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z GFS ens mean is RN for about everyone in the SE excluding central and eastern TN, NW GA, and N AL... comma head going north http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM is not looking good at all for the southeast at hour 48 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Euro out to 24HR. HP getting ready to slide off the NE. Vort digging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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