jburns Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Latest thinking from the locals: http://www.myfox8.co...0,5000340.story FOX8 meteorologist Charles Ewing said that the storm system is moving in slower and warmer than first expected. Light rain is expected to fall Tuesday afternoon and through the evening. The rain will likely begin to mix with snow overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday morning and continue falling as a mix until about noon. The mix is expected to change to snow around noon on Wednesday. The snowing is expected to last until sometime Wednesday evening. To those of you with kids in school, this is going to create such a headache. Too many times school has been canceled just due to the mention of snow and we don't see a single flake. I'll be watching this thread very closely so I'll know if I need to make sudden childcare plans. To be honest it shouldn't be much of a problem. Temps are marginal and roads will be wet and slow to cover. Everyone should have plenty of time to make it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 To be honest it shouldn't be much of a problem. Temps are marginal and roads will be wet and slow to cover. Everyone should have plenty of time to make it home. They've been extremely cautious recently because two high schoolers were killed due to accidents on the slick roads on the way to or from school during one of the recent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 ditto 6am comes early. 5 AM for me, thankfully work allows me to be on a computer all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 To be honest it shouldn't be much of a problem. Temps are marginal and roads will be wet and slow to cover. Everyone should have plenty of time to make it home. Yeah but if these schools see one flake fly, they will pull the plug.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS has started...I'll try to attempt PBP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 They've been extremely cautious recently because two high schoolers were killed due to accidents on the slick roads on the way to or from school during one of the recent storms. Yes I know. I am involved in forecasting winter weather for Thomasville City Shcools. The incidents you refer to were black ice incidents. Saw the scene of the one in Caswell. Kid had to be going at least 70. Sad and totally preventable with common sense driving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah but if these schools see one flake fly, they will pull the plug.. Yep, especially county schools because it takes several hours for everyone to get delivered home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 12 hours...surface low (1013mb) forming off Brownsville TX. Precip breaking out along the TX Gulf Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The differences in the ukmet and the NAM at 36 hours is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 @18 looks similar to 0z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 24...precip breaking out along the gulf coast, 850 line along the NC/SC border. The high to our north may be a bit slower in moving out...could be wrong though considering I didn't pay a whole lot of attention to that in the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 30...1012 mb low south of Lake Charles, 850 line still holding tough along NC/SC line. I think this could trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z GFS looks pretty similar to the NAM thus far to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at 36...1009 mb low just offshore Louisiana, precip starting to surge into MS/AL...850 line now runs along the NC/VA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 42 temps are a tad warmer than the 0z nam and looks to be just a tad faster too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 at hr 42 the 850 low is in southern mississippi looks like it doesent have the 2 lows that the nam had Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks more neutrally tilted than the NAM at hr 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is going to go negative sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Weak high pressure sitting over New Jersey looks like it is impacting this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpsteffe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 850mb temps soaring across the Carolinas this run due to a bit farther inland track and big time WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like the HP over the Dakotas may help us. Ridging out west? Sharper trough. This low should track in the right place. Looks like pressures are dropping as well (low getting its act together in Fla). http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_pcp_048l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this run so far has a ton of WAA i just dont see much snow right now except the mtns and extreme western foothills atleast any appreciable amounts but with the perfect track of the ull then maybe an hr or 2 of hvy snow is possible farther east but not confident in that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 60 hrs, the ukmet has a vertically stacked low over Birmingham, AL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 East Tennesse getting slammed at 66...850 line trying to surge east along the escarpment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 this run so far has a ton of WAA i just dont see much snow right now except the mtns and extreme western foothills atleast any appreciable amounts but with the perfect track of the ull then maybe an hr or 2 of hvy snow is possible farther east but not confident in that at all. This is all rain even here in the western Mtns. 850 temps are already at +3 or higher. Nice deformation band setting up back in western Tenn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This run has the 5H closing off much futher north than the NAM for sure, and has strong WAA in the Carolinas as a result at between 48 and 54 hours. I think the 2 western waves look stronger so that might have propped up the Alabama low. So this is good for eastern TN/Ky and WVa snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 60 hrs, the ukmet has a vertically stacked low over Birmingham, AL. UKMET has not wavered from it's solution. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/gifs/110124040453.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well, this is slightly frustrating. NAM shows one thing, and GFS shows another. Not unusual. In fact, I guess we should be used to it. GFS seems to pump a lot of WAA. I wonder if there's enough dynamics to support strong thunderstorms across Northern Florida around 48 hours? Only time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not a single person in the state of North Carolina would see any snow on this model run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 LOL.. looks like the mtns get dry slotted until the deformation band swings thru with some insane snow rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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