tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That is a nice looking comma head! It really nails E Tenn and western NC. N AL and N GA get some good snow too. Do you have the simulated radar or something czar? I was looking at Allan's maps and it wasn't all that impressive looking to me for east TN. Looked like really light precip. If you can provide a link if it's non-pay I'd appreciate it. Good luck to you with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It looks like it shows it around late afternoon which is certainly better than 12-2 p.m. I could see a March repeat from last year. Snow in GA and NC mtns, mix here in Shelby, then snow again by dark in the Sandhills and eastern Piedmont to coast. Seriously, this is looking a little better so far. Its just the NAM though. Do we know if it has input data problems? Some things about it don't look right though, namely double barrel low and a couple convective blobs I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd take it too but NAM must be smoking crack. That explosion of precip doesn't match up with where the low is. Take a look: That is via the H5, crazy things happen under and just to the left of ULLs, look at the 78hr 500mb map. I doubt though a 546dm H5 low would put that down, but something on the order of the EC, <536, yeah, probably, and the temps matchup at 850 with what I would expect in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I could see a March repeat from last year. Snow in GA and NC mtns, mix here in Shelby, then snow again by dark in the Sandhills and eastern Piedmont to coast. Seriously, this is looking a little better so far. Its just the NAM though. Do we know if it has input data problems? Some things about it don't look right though, namely double barrel low and a couple convective blobs I saw. yea that was an epic fail. Hope we get a March 09 repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM snowfall maps say congrats RDU! Throw a link to a brotha. I looked on Raleigh's site, but there was nothing worth noting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The nam only gets my 850 temps up to around 0.5. Below freezing from there up and only at 1.5 at 925. :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NOUS42 KWNO 240202ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS CAMP SPRINGS MD 0200Z MON JAN 24 2011 00Z NCEP MODEL CYCLE STARTED ON TIME... 00Z RAOB RECAP... ASY/70414 - 10158; FLIGHT EQUIP PROBLEMS. RIW/72672 - 10142; GROUND EQUIP PROBLEMS. MZL/76654 - 10159; NOT AVAILABLE. MEX/76679 - SHORT TO 577MB. KPP/78970 - 10159; NOT AVAILABLE. $$ SHRUELL/SDM/NCO/NCEP much better than 12z ingest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Do you have the simulated radar or something czar? I was looking at Allan's maps and it wasn't all that impressive looking to me for east TN. Looked like really light precip. If you can provide a link if it's non-pay I'd appreciate it. Good luck to you with this one. No its pay off of Accupro. But i just checked MBY yard for thermo profiles and it says all I would assume you are the same? What is your elevation? Im at 2500ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yea that was an epic fail. Hope we get a March 09 repeat. yeah that one was pure bad timing, middle of the day here, and in early March the sun angle means the boundary is upper 30's. This is late January though so temps should be substantially colder down here in the day. Taken literally I think its showing about 34 or 35, and usually models are off under heavy precip band in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 No its pay off of Accupro. But i just checked MBY yard for thermo profiles and it says all I would assume you are the same? What is your elevation? Im at 2500ft. Used to live in Unicoi, TN, about 2000 elevation................but now live in Johnson City, about 10 miles from KTRI, elevation around 1600. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 yeah that one was pure bad timing, middle of the day here, and in early March the sun angle means the boundary is upper 30's. This is late January though so temps should be substantially colder down here in the day. Taken literally I think its showing about 34 or 35, and usually models are off under heavy precip band in this setup. Usually in situations like this it seems like we just barely miss the snow and it also seems like elevation of only a couple 100' could make all the difference in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RaleighWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM soundings show that RDU is still all rain at hour 72, at hour 75 it is certianly a snow sounding. So sometime between 72 and 75 there is a changeover. 6 hour precip from hour 75-81 is between 0.1 and 0.25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So what are you thinkinng for the Greenville area? Because it looks like a lot of precip but will enough cold air be locked in place? This storm has never looked good for Greenville. A lot of rain, yes. Snow? No way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Used to live in Unicoi, TN, about 2000 elevation................but now live in Johnson City, about 10 miles from KTRI, elevation around 1600. Even at 60 you are below freezing down to 900mb then your about 37 at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Even at 60 you are below freezing down to 900mb then your about 37 at the surface. That's cool, thanks for the information. One thing east TN may have to worry about as much as temps will be the amount of precip. Seems the NAM and GFS wants to stay south and east of here. Of course the Ukie, GGEM, and Euro suggest otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Latest thinking from the locals: http://www.myfox8.com/news/wghp-story-possible-storm-100120,0,5000340.story FOX8 meteorologist Charles Ewing said that the storm system is moving in slower and warmer than first expected. Light rain is expected to fall Tuesday afternoon and through the evening. The rain will likely begin to mix with snow overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday morning and continue falling as a mix until about noon. The mix is expected to change to snow around noon on Wednesday. The snowing is expected to last until sometime Wednesday evening. To those of you with kids in school, this is going to create such a headache. Too many times school has been canceled just due to the mention of snow and we don't see a single flake. I'll be watching this thread very closely so I'll know if I need to make sudden childcare plans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's cool, thanks for the information. One thing east TN may have to worry about as much as temps will be the amount of precip. Seems the NAM and GFS wants to stay south and east of here. Of course the Ukie, GGEM, and Euro suggest otherwise NAM is quite drier than what it was, but that's the least of our worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM soundings show that RDU is still all rain at hour 72, at hour 75 it is certianly a snow sounding. So sometime between 72 and 75 there is a changeover. 6 hour precip from hour 75-81 is between 0.1 and 0.25. Looks like you might have a dusting when you get back from your trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's cool, thanks for the information. One thing east TN may have to worry about as much as temps will be the amount of precip. Seems the NAM and GFS wants to stay south and east of here. Of course the Ukie, GGEM, and Euro suggest otherwise Don't forget the JMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seahawkbaseball#6 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Folks, the longer the delay the better...HP is and will build from the N. The NAM is trending toward the same solution the EURO had a week ago, two seperate LP's in GOM. This has the potential look for something special toward the end of the week and beyond. If the 2nd storm goes up the coast it could be a good situation for us southern's the first week of Feb as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Imagine if the ULL and surface could get stacked on the GA coast. Instead this run of the nam the ULL never catches the surface low, just acts as a kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM soundings show that RDU is still all rain at hour 72, at hour 75 it is certianly a snow sounding. So sometime between 72 and 75 there is a changeover. 6 hour precip from hour 75-81 is between 0.1 and 0.25. Probably as good as we can hope for, maybe 1-2", but it will be melted by the time we wake up anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Latest thinking from the locals: http://www.myfox8.co...0,5000340.story FOX8 meteorologist Charles Ewing said that the storm system is moving in slower and warmer than first expected. Light rain is expected to fall Tuesday afternoon and through the evening. The rain will likely begin to mix with snow overnight Tuesday or early Wednesday morning and continue falling as a mix until about noon. The mix is expected to change to snow around noon on Wednesday. The snowing is expected to last until sometime Wednesday evening. To those of you with kids in school, this is going to create such a headache. Too many times school has been canceled just due to the mention of snow and we don't see a single flake. I'll be watching this thread very closely so I'll know if I need to make sudden childcare plans. I really hope they don't cancel school..again. We've already lost Spring Break... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM soundings show that RDU is still all rain at hour 72, at hour 75 it is certianly a snow sounding. So sometime between 72 and 75 there is a changeover. 6 hour precip from hour 75-81 is between 0.1 and 0.25. This is the 75hr sounding for RDU, SN with saturation just above 700mb, although at 78 it is lost and the dendritic growth zone begins to dry. However, this is dynamically driven Allan, and verbatim with a 544dm H5 low passing through SE NC at 75hrs, that does not support the cooling needed aloft for SN to reach the surface. I an inclined to the Euro bandwagon, 0 and 12z runs as there was continuity between the two, in that the ULL will be on the order of 7-10dm deeper compared to this NAM run and exit around Elizabeth City, and yes, it would fit the bill with a quick changeover in its wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpsteffe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The NAM soundings show that RDU is still all rain at hour 72, at hour 75 it is certianly a snow sounding. So sometime between 72 and 75 there is a changeover. 6 hour precip from hour 75-81 is between 0.1 and 0.25. Agreed...one concern of mine though is the dendritic snow growth zone appears to dry out quickly after that time limiting any potential snowfall to a few hours at best. It's definitely a step in the right direction though for folks wanting to see snow in the RDU area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really hope they don't cancel school..again. We've already lost Spring Break... Do your kids go to WSFC schools? They have only lost one day from Spring break as of now. Makeup days so far are: Feb. 21, April 25, June 10, June 13 and June 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Do your kids go to WSFC schools? They have only lost one day from Spring break as of now. Makeup days so far are: Feb. 21, April 25, June 10, June 13 and June 14. Im the one in school, lol. Im in Davidson County, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really want to stay up for the GFS run but the gym and work are calling for tomorrow. Good luck with the runs tonight hopefully it trends in the souths favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really want to stay up for the GFS run but the gym and work are calling for tomorrow. Good luck with the runs tonight hopefully it trends in the souths favor. 35 minutes burger? Hang tough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I really want to stay up for the GFS run but the gym and work are calling for tomorrow. Good luck with the runs tonight hopefully it trends in the souths favor. ditto 6am comes early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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