phil882 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think what you guys are seeing are just a bunch of mini vortices within the larger broad 500mb low. This is not a very tightly wound feature, so its got a lot of centers. It also makes it a lot more unpredictable. For example, if the southern vort decides to tighten up for whatever reason (more convection for example) than it could force the mean center of the 500mb low further south. I don't think we are gonna see any major shifts from what we have seen with the RUC, but all the convective stuff firring up in AL/GA was not really well predicted by the models, so I think what we are seeing with the RUC is a correction due to the convective elements altering the relative vorticity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 These 2 features are not the same thing. The ULL is what is a bowling ball, and moves as such knocking down ridges and such. If the feature you are keying in on is the upper level low then it will be out of here by tomorrow morning and remember this is not going to effect NC or GA until tomorrow evening. These things work east to west and as many mets were saying yesterday it will only last 6 to 8 hours of intense snows on the north and NW side. There is no moisture yet on the NW side because of the High that is close by to the NW in ILL.. I will post a map from the HPC that will show you the High and the Low near the Gulf. I hope this helps. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fbw.gif The center may very well be above it (no met here), but it is an interesting feature and I would've thought it'd be heading northeasterly in general...hmmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Follow and listen to phil882 he is as good as any pro met, and the pro mets would agree. I still cannot as many on this board why he doesn't have a RED BANNER. I thought he had one on EASTERNWX. Off to bed gotta get up early and the sun is coming up soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Some interesting observations in the past few hours. Rome, GA got about .2" of rain in the past hour, which is pretty much spot on with what RUC had that area recieving. Atlanta, GA has had some reports of lightning with some of the convection that is moving through. Not surprising with some of the echos at around 50 dbz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 sleet starting to mix in here now. Considering the radar echos over you... it actually might be small hail from a convective cell. This might be pretty common early this morning across WNC as the convective elements from GA move in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Considering the radar echos over you... it actually might be small hail from a convective cell. This might be pretty common early this morning across WNC as the convective elements from GA move in. could be i know the temp is starting to drop down to 35 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 could be i know the temp is starting to drop down to 35 now. Just curious, but did you end up getting any significant accumulation from last weeks event on Monday? I remember you said you already had a dusting on the ground when the precipitation first moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 still not expecting anything over 1 inch in the central valley of ETN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Good morning! I don't even know what to say. Another .11 overnight and that's it. Looking at the SPC map http://www.daculaweather.com/conus/mesoanalysis.php it looks like a pair of eyes, double barrel low, one over TN/NC border and one on the coast of NC. Looks like those people in the middle aren't getting much. If you haven't used the meso analysis much, at the top of the page you'll see where it says "Change Sector", click there and mouse over to the purple box over NC and choose that sector. Unfortunately, it has changed a little since I started typing. By the time most people read it... it will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 I think the main reasons for the bust on the rain is the ULL tracked too far NW and lagged too far behind the surface low. This means the surface low will bomb later and thus less rainfall (or almost none) for much of our area. Coastal/FL convection may have also factored in here. Additionally I think the deformation band will not really reach the northern piedmont at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Good morning! I don't even know what to say. Another .11 overnight and that's it. Looking at the SPC map http://www.daculawea...esoanalysis.php it looks like a pair of eyes, double barrel low, one over TN/NC border and one on the coast of NC. Looks like those people in the middle aren't getting much. If you haven't used the meso analysis much, at the top of the page you'll see where it says "Change Sector", click there and mouse over to the purple box over NC and choose that sector. Unfortunately, it has changed a little since I started typing. By the time most people read it... it will be gone. HAHA. I noticed that too this morning....... still very little rain here just north of CLT but looks like some heavier echos are rotating in so hopefully we will be able to get in on some of that before all said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 .40" over night with thunder and lighting!! 41 in January Glad to get .40 so far.. I think the main reasons for the bust on the rain is the ULL tracked too far NW and lagged too far behind the surface low. This means the surface low will bomb later and thus less rainfall (or almost none) for much of our area. Coastal/FL convection may have also factored in here. Additionally I think the deformation band will not really reach the northern piedmont at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 .40" over night with thunder and lighting!! 41 in January Glad to get .40 so far.. hahah very cool at leas the thunder anyway. I am guessing you still may see some snow too. No fail for you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 .40" over night with thunder and lighting!! 41 in January Glad to get .40 so far.. Same here Mark. I got clocked around 6:10 to 6:50, with very heavy rain and several rounds of thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 39 (!?) and moderate rain here. Already well over my programmed high for the day, but RUC is showing my temps fall between hours 2 and 5, and as such, it looks like WNC has a chance of some snow. Probably little in the way of accumulations, as it shouldn't last but maybe an hour to an hour and a half with the ground warmed up from the rain, it really depends on how quick the temps crash, I guess. Then we're left with lingering up-slope conditions, which more than likely won't produce much west of Balsam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol. I will let you know if I do.. Doubt it. But I was shocked when the Thunder woke me up at 5 till 6 this morning.. hahah very cool at leas the thunder anyway. I am guessing you still may see some snow too. No fail for you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 lol. I will let you know if I do.. Doubt it. But I was shocked when the Thunder woke me up at 5 till 6 this morning.. Yeah I'm afraid whats going to happen where you and I are, the def. band will bank up against the mtns of NC and TN today and pull northeast across into VA, just clipping nw NC, meaning downslope for us once this surface low and ULL are around the northern piedmont later today. The RUC clearly shows that too, we may even break into sunshine this afternoon late. However, with us being under the ULL today, sometimes strange things happen locally, so some parts of the foothills may get a burst or 2 of snow at some point. If it was a more cold core system, I 'd be more enthused on that. Otherwise, once this rain is done this morning, thats probably it here for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well before I went to bed last night the radar looked like crap, for our area. Happy with the .40 I measured this morning. Would be nice to pick another .40 or a little snow Yeah I'm afraid whats going to happen where you and I are, the def. band will bank up against the mtns of NC and TN today and pull northeast across into VA, just clipping nw NC, meaning downslope for us once this surface low and ULL are around the northern piedmont later today. The RUC clearly shows that too, we may even break into sunshine this afternoon late. However, with us being under the ULL today, sometimes strange things happen locally, so some parts of the foothills may get a burst or 2 of snow at some point. If it was a more cold core system, I 'd be more enthused on that. Otherwise, once this rain is done this morning, thats probably it here for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Well before I went to bed last night the radar looked like crap, for our area. Happy with the .40 I measured this morning. Would be nice to pick another .40 or a little snow I'm putting up a new guage and took the old one down so I don't know how much I got, but a good rough guess is .45" from this mornings deluge. It was really nice. The RUC also showed this band coming through this morning, I mentioned it a few pages back , although I wondered if it would start just northeast of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Rain here is Surry Co. and 37 outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 This is the gauge I use. I also post at cocorahs I'm putting up a new guage and took the old one down so I don't know how much I got, but a good rough guess is .45" from this mornings deluge. It was really nice. The RUC also showed this band coming through this morning, I mentioned it a few pages back , although I wondered if it would start just northeast of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Looks like it's time for a new thread fellas. Someone please make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can we just lock this one and move everything to the obs/nowcasting thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 Can we just lock this one and move everything to the obs/nowcasting thread? It crossed my mind since there really isn't much to discuss except observations at this point. Let's just do that instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 26, 2011 Share Posted January 26, 2011 It crossed my mind since there really isn't much to discuss except observations at this point. +1. I think its best as this is a nowcasting and obs situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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