Jan 25/26 Storm Part IV

[IWC]

They are talking about it in that Feb thread, looks like maybe next Thursday or Friday...which based on the last three storms means Monday in to Tuesday (2/7 and 2/8)

It Does seem to be trending that way. my friend...

[FoothillsNC]

OK Robert, this one didn't live up to what we were hoping. Soooooooo let move on to the next one and see what it brings. No harm No foul..

well its not over just yet. You still likely have some snow coming tomorrow.

They are talking about it in that Feb thread, looks like maybe next Thursday or Friday...which based on the last three storms means Monday in to Tuesday (2/7 and 2/8)

sounds about like it.

Robert,

Still comfortable with your just north and west of Nashville for the heavier accumulating snows with this deform band? It appears that was a good call in what I am seeing right now. I guess NWS is still going with 3-5 for mid TN, but I still think you might be right.

I still think the heaviest of this translates into eastern KY and western VA, leaving KTRI to hope for a surprise. Looking at the latest RUC and NAM leads me to hang onto this thinking, even though I too find myself in a WSWarning, with a forecasted 3-5.

Sorry you guys are getting hit with the old Carolina split. maybe you can squeeze out some moisture tomorrow morning when the ULL passes through. Thanks for all you bring to this board, it's greatly appreciated and you are a class act all the way.

Been looking a lot at trends and I know thats not forecasting with any guts, but I do see BNA and most of Tenn. east of there getting this band overnight and into tomorrow, but probably not more than a few inches. I think the band is going to decrease in strength by early dawn over mid. state and the RUC http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/ruc/hr4/index_700_l_loop.shtml starts to pull it out of e. TN fairly quickly at a faster rate around noon tomorrow, with the best lift jumping the chain. So wherever the heaviest bands are probably several inches, maybe up to 6" in spots, but more likely less, but overall most will get less.

[FoothillsNC]

I think its overdone, but I still think your area could get on the southern end of the deformation band that sets up. You will be on the edge between the 1-3 and 3-6" snowfall on my map!

For those interested (mainly TN/KY) this still looks like a decent event. Precipitation is ramping up across Alabama, and the deformation zone currently in place will fall apart and redevelop at some point along the Appalachians, likely from north NC through VA and WVA. While I don't really cover that area, I've posted an update and snowfall map on my blog

http://blizzard.atms.../local_jan.html

your map looks good. Did you see the latest RUC animation. The last few frames have the moisture stopping right at NC/TN line in 18 hours as it pulls out to the northeast into VA. piedmont pretty quickly. That looks like a quick transfer of energy and something I've been wondering about, if it happens that would cut down on e. TN totals pretty badly I"m afraid.

[Carvers Gap]

I think its overdone, but I still think your area could get on the southern end of the deformation band that sets up. You will be on the edge between the 1-3 and 3-6" snowfall on my map!

For those interested (mainly TN/KY) this still looks like a decent event. Precipitation is ramping up across Alabama, and the deformation zone currently in place will fall apart and redevelop at some point along the Appalachians, likely from north NC through VA and WVA. While I don't really cover that area, I've posted an update and snowfall map on my blog

http://blizzard.atms.../local_jan.html

Thanks, Phil. It's much appreciated!

[Vol Man]

Robert and Phil...thanks for the continued updates for us NE TN folks...we may be able to squeeze out 3-4 out of this event tomorrow....the local mets brought the change to snow sooner...around 8:00 -9:00 Wed. morning. If it can change over that quick, we might get 4". Like I said, thanks...I have learned a lot in these past few days...look forward to following future storms with you guys.

[Solak]

LOL ---- welcome to the future!!! from RAH

(posting this at 9:53PM)

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --AS OF 1020 PM...

HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE EVENT... OTHERWISE NO

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. IN THE SHORT TERM FOR TONIGHT... VAD WIND

RADAR PROFILES FROM WILMINGTON AND RALEIGH ARE MORE SUPPORTIVE OF

THE NAM SOLUTION THAN THE 01Z RUC MODEL RUN. RUC SEEMS TO HAVE

WINDS TOO STRONG AND TOO SOUTHEAST INLAND IN RESPONSE TO

DEVELOPING COASTAL PLAIN LOW. RUC SEEMS TO BE TOO STRONG WITH

INLAND SPEED CONVERGENCE. ALTHOUGH EXPECT SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF

RAINS IN THE EAST... THE RUC IS LIKELY OVERDONE. WEST AREAS BEHIND

THE NORTHWARD EXITING BAND OF PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE TO WAIT ON

THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WEDNESDAY FOR A DECENT SHOT AT

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAVE LOW CATEGORICAL RAIN CHANCES

ALONE HOWEVER... BUT MOSTLY FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS WEST OF INTERSTATE

95. LITTLE TEMPERATURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL AIR MASS RELATIVELY

SATURATED WITH A MIXING BREEZE. ONLY A VERY SLIGHT DROP FROM

CURRENT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR LOW

TEMPERATURES.

[eyewall]

LOL ---- welcome to the future!!! from RAH

(posting this at 9:53PM)

Wow I really hate to jump on RAH because I really like them and the job they do there most of the time but this hasn't been their greatest few days to a week. The walk down from major winter storm to rain to almost nothing has to be painful. It is one of their bigger busts in awhile though after nearly nailing some of these other events.

[jburns]

Wow I really hate to jump on RAH because I really like them and the job they do there most of the time but this hasn't been their greatest few days to a week. The walk down from major winter storm to rain to almost nothing has to be painful. It is one of their bigger busts in awhile though after nearly nailing some of these other events.

Damn cliff jumpers.

[phil882]

your map looks good. Did you see the latest RUC animation. The last few frames have the moisture stopping right at NC/TN line in 18 hours as it pulls out to the northeast into VA. piedmont pretty quickly. That looks like a quick transfer of energy and something I've been wondering about, if it happens that would cut down on e. TN totals pretty badly I"m afraid.

I still see good 3-4 hour period across extreme NE TN and SW VA that gets nearly .1" per hour rates according to the 02z RUC. Whether or not that actually verifies is a good question though.

[Lee]

Here's NWSFO/JKL updated snowfall map. They seem to think this area will get much more than most others think. May be going solely on the Nam. It shows similar amounts for the towns listed(which are lower elevation locals)as what most expect generally for the area but, look at the legend; much more in general, as most of this area is more elevated than the towns depicted.

http://www.crh.noaa....rmTotalSnow.png

[phil882]

Here's NWSFO/JKL updated snowfall map. They seem to think this area will get much more than most others think. May be going solely on the Nam. It shows similar amounts for the towns listed(which are lower elevation locals)as what most expect generally for the area but, look at the legend; much more in general, as most of this area is more elevated than the towns depicted.

http://www.crh.noaa....rmTotalSnow.png

If the RUC is any indication... I think they are in good shape for a burst of heavy snow tomorrow morning between 9am-12pm

[Pilotwx]

I could see where the foothills could get some snow, if we see the moisture shield expand from SW NC to NE toward the Northern Foothills. But that is stretching it !

If the RUC is any indication... I think they are in good shape for a burst of heavy snow tomorrow morning between 9am-12pm

[Pilotwx]

I love the WV, it can tell so much.

It looks like our upper level low may be moving south. Look toward ARK. MISS boarder and you will see the twist.

http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html

[phil882]

Ok things are starting to get interesting... the latest RUC is showing that same little bulge in the 500mb heights similar to the GFS at 500mb. Thus the deformation band is intensified especially over ETN. The only problem I see right now is that while 850mb temperatures are below freezing across ETN, there is a nice warm pocket at 925mb, which might keep things mainly rain unless we get heavy enough rates. However, if things do change over, we are looking at 1" per hour rates perfect prog.

I'm wondering if this run is just a hiccup because its quite a major change from the 03z run.

[Pilotwx]

I think the Upper level low is moving farther south and east, it won't take to much for East Tenn and Western NC to get in on the fun. This system is not, and has not been modeled right from the get go. I really am looking for a surprise for a lot on this board tomorrow when the forecast has changed.

Ok things are starting to get interesting... the latest RUC is showing that same little bulge in the 500mb heights similar to the GFS at 500mb. Thus the deformation band is intensified especially over ETN. The only problem I see right now is that while 850mb temperatures are below freezing across ETN, there is a nice warm pocket at 925mb, which might keep things mainly rain unless we get heavy enough rates. However, if things do change over, we are looking at 1" per hour rates perfect prog.

I'm wondering if this run is just a hiccup because its quite a major change from the 03z run.

[Pilotwx]

Phil882, does it look like the low almost wants to go negative? Looking @ the contour lines it looks like it.

[phil882]

Phil882, does it look like the low almost wants to go negative? Looking @ the contour lines it looks like it.

Yep, thats where our lift is coming from. It also helps that the Appalachian mountains will help enhance adiabatic lift since the southeasterly flow is forced to go over the mountains. It makes me wonder if on the NW side of the Appalachian mountains (East TN) the RUC is seeing the potential for down-sloping and substance that might causing a warmer 925mb temperatures there. That my primary concern for East Tennessee... since it appears that we will have the precipitation in place according to the RUC.

[Pilotwx]

It very could be down-sloping. I had my feel of it for years. This looks to be the case, to me this may be a sign the ULL is going to move farther east that PROG. The models may be catching on to this now. The moisture may come in at such an angle that t enhances it long the NC escarpment and spreads east by default. It sure is getting interesting .<div><div><br></div><div><br></div><div><br>

<br>Yep, thats where our lift is coming from. It also helps that the Appalachian mountains will help enhance adiabatic lift since the southeasterly flow is forced to go over the mountains. It makes me wonder if on the NW side of the Appalachian mountains (East TN) the RUC is seeing the potential for down-sloping and substance that might causing a warmer 925mb temperatures there. That my primary concern for East Tennessee... since it appears that we will have the precipitation in place according to the RUC.<br>

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[seahawkbaseball#6]

Yep, thats where our lift is coming from. It also helps that the Appalachian mountains will help enhance adiabatic lift since the southeasterly flow is forced to go over the mountains. It makes me wonder if on the NW side of the Appalachian mountains (East TN) the RUC is seeing the potential for down-sloping and substance that might causing a warmer 925mb temperatures there. That my primary concern for East Tennessee... since it appears that we will have the precipitation in place according to the RUC.

Thanks Phil that would be nice but the RUC has been over cooking today....hopefully it will come to fruition for your area. I don't know that we'll see anything around my neck of the woods. Euro should be popping about now, any changes for the SE mid next week and next weekend? Thanks

[DAWGNKITTEN]

I love the WV, it can tell so much.

It looks like our upper level low may be moving south. Look toward ARK. MISS boarder and you will see the twist.

http://www.goes.noaa...LOOPS/ecwv.html

Been staring at that loop, rocked it back and forth, basically did everything to it...I don't think it may be moving south...I think it's moving east and it's centered on the AR/MS/TN border. Correct me if I'm wrong...would LOVE for this to move south!

[CoolBreeze]

Been staring at that loop, rocked it back and forth, basically did everything to it...I don't think it may be moving south...I think it's moving east and it's centered on the AR/MS/TN border. Correct me if I'm wrong...would LOVE for this to move south!

I've rocked it back and forth too, and I think there may indeed be a southerly component to its motion. If you focus on the somewhat darker "circle" in central Ark. at the beginning of the loop and step through the frames, then watch the "top" of that darker circle rotate, you'll see that the top of that circle has moved south a bit. It ahs also moved east, but I believe there is a southerly component to that motion, imo.

[Pilotwx]

That is part of the Broader low that is going to move to the NE US. The ULL is a smaller area that is around the ARK. MISS boarder, ULL are usually small so they tend to be hard to see until they have completely closed off which is happening now. I'm not trying to correct you as that feature does look like what would be the ULL.

Been staring at that loop, rocked it back and forth, basically did everything to it...I don't think it may be moving south...I think it's moving east and it's centered on the AR/MS/TN border. Correct me if I'm wrong...would LOVE for this to move south!

[DAWGNKITTEN]

I've rocked it back and forth too, and I think there may indeed be a southerly component to its motion. If you focus on the somewhat darker "circle" in central Ark. at the beginning of the loop and step through the frames, then watch the "top" of that darker circle rotate, you'll see that the top of that circle has moved south a bit. It ahs also moved east, but I believe there is a southerly component to that motion, imo.

I thought the center of that was above the darker "circle". If I'm not mistaken, it should be running at the border of MS/TN and about to head onto the border of AL/TN.

[DAWGNKITTEN]

That is part of the Broader low that is going to move to the NE US. The ULL is a smaller area that is around the ARK. MISS boarder, ULL are usually small so they tend to be hard to see until they have completely closed off which is happening now. I'm not trying to correct you as that feature does look like what would be the ULL.

So then it's below what I think...well, in that case, it does look to be heading south. I'm glad you did correct me...I've been looking at the wrong feature the whole time...actually, a certain met pointed it out at 11:17 out of ATL and I've been following what he pointed out ever since! Thank you! Now, for a question...IF, and I mean IF, that moves south how does that affect AL, GA, SC, and NC, or doesn't it really at all?

[CoolBreeze]

I thought the center of that was above the darker "circle". If I'm not mistaken, it should be running at the border of MS/TN and about to head onto the border of AL/TN.

The center may very well be above it (no met here), but it is an interesting feature and I would've thought it'd be heading northeasterly in general...hmmmm...

[DAWGNKITTEN]

The center may very well be above it (no met here), but it is an interesting feature and I would've thought it'd be heading northeasterly in general...hmmmm...

I know...I'm confused....or is it supposed to turn more northeasterly later on today?

[Weather Nerd]

I know...I'm confused....or is it supposed to turn more northeasterly later on today?

I think that what they are saying is that there is a main surface level low that is the broader low and probably the feature that was pointed out. It is forecast to move NE. There is also an upper level low just below it. I think that they may be right, it does appear to be moving south. Look toward LA...

[CoolBreeze]

I know...I'm confused....or is it supposed to turn more northeasterly later on today?

I was looking at the RUC for this time, and I think it is rotating a bit south before it heads northeasterly like you said. That feature appears to not be quite "at the bottom" of the vort yet. I wish it would do something unexpected though !!!

[DAWGNKITTEN]

I think that what they are saying is that there is a main surface level low that is the broader low and probably the feature that was pointed out. It is forecast to move NE. There is also an upper level low just below it. I think that they may be right, it does appear to be moving south. Look toward LA...

I think we might need a met in here to pinpoint exactly...LOL

[DAWGNKITTEN]

I was looking at the RUC for this time, and I think it is rotating a bit south before it heads northeasterly like you said. That feature appears to not be quite "at the bottom" of the vort yet. I wish it would do something unexpected though !!!

I know....I think you're right too. Doing something unexpected would be great right now. Okay, ya'll I'm outta here for a few hours. Hope to see exactly what it has in store for me tomorrow...please no more drizzle!