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Jan 25/26 Storm Part IV


burgertime

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I don't know that I like going against the RUC. It's been a stellar model this season. However, the RGEM @ 24 hrs on the 18z is nice for SE KY, SW VA, and NE TN. It also seems to represent the current radar accurately - w/ the "comma head" looking separate from the main precipitation shield to its east. Will it be right? Who knows. It will be interesting to see which model is right, RUC or RGEM.

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Wow, my area is getting a double dose of fail. No snow and then a lot less rain. I am happy for the peeps in Western Tn, Ky and East Ar. Looks like that will be the "sweet spot" when all is said and done. Too bad we do not have much coverage in terms of peeps out there, unless I am missing some obs (I have not read the obs thread yet). Good luck to those that are still in the "hunt".

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Wow, Carolina Split...

post-382-0-07657300-1296004354.jpg

Less than 0.25" in the bucket, and given some sort of backfilling miracle tomorrow, major QPF fail here, and for many!

post-382-0-04772100-1296004467.jpg

Thank goodness this was just a rain event, can you imagine this board if this was supposed to be a snow event. Having to watch the precip split NC like this.

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Wow, Carolina Split...

post-382-0-07657300-1296004354.jpg

Less than 0.25" in the bucket, and given some sort of backfilling miracle tomorrow, major QPF fail here, and for many!

post-382-0-04772100-1296004467.jpg

Congrats TN :snowman:

I am relieved it wasn't snow now because the level of cliff diving would far surpass anything we saw this week when this went to hell. This storm sucks in all ways. As for the split could it have been due to coastal convection?

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I am relieved it wasn't snow now because the level of cliff diving would far surpass anything we saw this week when this when to hell. This storm sucks in all ways.

I agree, Just a few days ago WNC was in for a big event! Now it's just a fail all the way around. Too many fails with one storm. Good thing most on this board have had a good year so far.

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I agree, Just a few days ago WNC was in for a big event! Now it's just a fail all the way around. Too many fails with one storm. Good thing most on this board have had a good year so far.

Yeah it is the Triangle area that I feel bad for this year so far.

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I am relieved it wasn't snow now because the level of cliff diving would far surpass anything we saw this week when this went to hell. This storm sucks in all ways. As for the split could it have been due to coastal convection?

That was my thinking also, and most of the guidance indicated such a gap within about 48 hrs of the event which may have been taking this into account. The convection coupled with a broad and disorganized low pressure system atm are likely the cause. SPC meso shows a 1008mb low in the western FL Panhandle, but you can see from the isobars there are two areas, one working up into the southern apps, associated with the moisture in TN and KY, and a second off the GA/SC coast. The consolidation and sig strengthening should not happen till off the VA Capes, and that left us stuck in the middle, as evidenced by radar. Interesting no doubt in that there were some extreme solutions in the 4-7 day bringing this thing out of the Gulf <1000mb and mid 980's over or just off NC. Not going to happen and just another example of why one should not buy into extreme solutions, even with a general consensus, as they almost never verify.

post-382-0-28512800-1296005726.jpg

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NOW you're wondering?:lol:

I'm up to .13" so far.

I feel bad for you guys getting the shaft on the rain, even here in the wetlands of NW SC i've only squeezed out .3" today. These type of systems and modeling are what gives forecasters a bad name for the most part. It's like trying to build a house with a hammer with no head!

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I feel bad for you guys getting the shaft on the rain, even here in the wetlands of NW SC i've only squeezed out .3" today. These type of systems and modeling are what gives forecasters a bad name for the most part. It's like trying to build a house with a hammer with no head!

yeah I started watching it go downhill yesterday and then braced myself for this. Almost no rain at all. There is probably going to be a band come through early tomorrow though that could drop something though. I like that " nw SC wetlands" has a nice ring. You're right too, think you doubled my rain last year.

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yeah I started watching it go downhill yesterday and then braced myself for this. Almost no rain at all. There is probably going to be a band come through early tomorrow though that could drop something though. I like that " nw SC wetlands" has a nice ring. You're right too, think you doubled my rain last year.

OK Robert, this one didn't live up to what we were hoping. Soooooooo let move on to the next one and see what it brings. No harm No foul..

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I won't lose too much sleep over the lack of rain tonight here but it is certainly something look at for future forecasting scenarios.

It seems to be the trend especially this year. The closer and closer you get to these events from the gulf the lighter and lighter the qpf becomes once it makes it to us. I thought for sure this would be the storm that wouldn't do that and we would at least get a soaking rain.

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It seems to be the trend especially this year. The closer and closer you get to these events from the gulf the lighter and lighter the qpf becomes once it makes it to us. I thought for sure this would be the storm that wouldn't do that and we would at least get a soaking rain.

ok Burger, What is next up for storms??

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Robert,

Still comfortable with your just north and west of Nashville for the heavier accumulating snows with this deform band? It appears that was a good call in what I am seeing right now. I guess NWS is still going with 3-5 for mid TN, but I still think you might be right.

I still think the heaviest of this translates into eastern KY and western VA, leaving KTRI to hope for a surprise. Looking at the latest RUC and NAM leads me to hang onto this thinking, even though I too find myself in a WSWarning, with a forecasted 3-5.

Sorry you guys are getting hit with the old Carolina split. maybe you can squeeze out some moisture tomorrow morning when the ULL passes through. Thanks for all you bring to this board, it's greatly appreciated and you are a class act all the way.

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I'm not sure what to make of the 0z NAM. It is showing 0.75-1.00" qpf over NE TN. Looks maybe a bit overblown. Can I get bufkit data before the run is over? The site I use requires that the model run go through 84.

I haven't checked it out lately but I would be looking more at trends and the RUC.

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I'm not sure what to make of the 0z NAM. It is showing 0.75-1.00" qpf over NE TN. Looks maybe a bit overblown. Can I get bufkit data before the run is over? The site I use requires that the model run go through 84.

I think its overdone, but I still think your area could get on the southern end of the deformation band that sets up. You will be on the edge between the 1-3 and 3-6" snowfall on my map!

For those interested (mainly TN/KY) this still looks like a decent event. Precipitation is ramping up across Alabama, and the deformation zone currently in place will fall apart and redevelop at some point along the Appalachians, likely from north NC through VA and WVA. While I don't really cover that area, I've posted an update and snowfall map on my blog

http://blizzard.atms.unca.edu/~pppapin/local_jan.html

2rdg0pl.png

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