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Jan 25/26 Storm Part IV


burgertime

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gfs is dragging that deformation band through northern nc again. just looking at the 500mb pattern, with that wave sitting over eastern nc and the slp off the coast. once that consolidates, i still think, climo wise, it favors something over western nc/southern va tomorrow. just gonna have to wait and see.

The GFS is like night and day compared to the RUC on precip here over the next 12 hours. Love the model consistency.

The critical thing is if we see a "kink" on the 500mb heights. The GFS shows a slight negatively tilted bulge in these lower heights co-located with the very high vorticity. This allows the upper level flow to turn southeasterly, which when banked up against an orthogonal mountain chain that ring out a lot of precipitation.

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The RUC shows no such thing on its latest run, with no evidence of a bulge in 500mb heights during the same time frame. Nam also shows no such thing as well. Thus, I'd say the feature is bogus until the higher res models also show something similar.

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The critical thing is if we see a "kink" on the 500mb heights. The GFS shows a slight negatively tilted bulge in these lower heights co-located with the very high vorticity. This allows the upper level flow to turn southeasterly, which when banked up against an orthogonal mountain chain that ring out a lot of precipitation.

The RUC shows no such thing on its latest run, with no evidence of a bulge in 500mb heights during the same time frame. Nam also shows no such thing as well. Thus, I'd say the feature is bogus until the higher res models also show something similar.

Unless my computer is acting weirdly, the loop of the latest RUC has some blips in it. Goes back west and then east and then on the last few frames west, east, and back west. It's on the 21 RUC

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The critical thing is if we see a "kink" on the 500mb heights. The GFS shows a slight negatively tilted bulge in these lower heights co-located with the very high vorticity. This allows the upper level flow to turn southeasterly, which when banked up against an orthogonal mountain chain that ring out a lot of precipitation.

The RUC shows no such thing on its latest run, with no evidence of a bulge in 500mb heights during the same time frame. Nam also shows no such thing as well. Thus, I'd say the feature is bogus until the higher res models also show something similar.

Thanks for the explanation! :)

21z RUC really bringing the snowy love to NC @18..hmm

I'm not sure I see what you mean? Looks like rain.

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BMX must be looking at things differently than FFC. If the lines extended 25 miles past the state line, I would be in the trace to .25" area...

image3.gif

Hell I was wondering what they have been looking at too because I can't see that happening. Models don't show much of any precip there after it's cold enough. Maybe they are expecting more convective showers than the models are projecting but I've sort of been scratching my head at them and huntsville being so bullish...especially with the models shifting north and getting progressively drier there.

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The critical thing is if we see a "kink" on the 500mb heights. The GFS shows a slight negatively tilted bulge in these lower heights co-located with the very high vorticity. This allows the upper level flow to turn southeasterly, which when banked up against an orthogonal mountain chain that ring out a lot of precipitation.

Good stuff Phil, thanks for that explanation!

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What? Now a WS Warning for NE TN? I like it, but this sure seems to be in conflict with most of the discussion today.....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

325 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...ACCUMULATING SNOW OR WINTRY MIX EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT

NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL

SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION

THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN SWITCH TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE

HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE

COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION...CAUSING THE SNOW TO

ACCUMULATE BY WEDNESDAY.

AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING

SNOWFALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY MID MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...

IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO

5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY

EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE

POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN

VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS.

I was surprised as well. Their discussion is not w/out support from at least some of the models. If I picked one type of storm that is difficult to get a read on...this is it. I've seen monster busts in both directions. This winter, the NWS has had a hot hand. I have a tendency to listen pretty carefully at this point. They have generally been conservative this winter.

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I was surprised as well. Their discussion is not w/out support from at least some of the models. If I picked one type of storm that is difficult to get a read on...this is it. I've seen monster busts in both directions. This winter, the NWS has had a hot hand. I have a tendency to listen pretty carefully at this point. They have generally been conservative this winter.

its going to be interesting to see how the 7H band holds together around 18 hours from now. the latest RUC has it in eastern TN by then (still not quite cold enough TRI) with the 850 in nw NC, and developing UVV in nw NC and ne TN at that time. It looks like that 7H band is either going to start strengthening then, or when it gets just east of the Apps in nw NC and sw VA, so its a really tough call. The flow may actually help east and esp NE TN just after 18 hours since its somewhat upslope by then and some extra cooling is coming in as well. I say good luck hope you get atleast a few hours of good rates...its very possible. I'd def. keep a watch on the RUC features.

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Bout what I figured, I noticed on accuweather radar pocket of blue showing up in foothills but I know those radars are not all that accurate sometimes. You still think I get accum snow ?

did you see what I posted back? The RUC is the one to watch. At 18 hours its doing something, has the sfc low in NC coming through and a strong line of precip in nrn NC strong UVV and those extend nw into southern WVA, and another separate batch of high UVVV in ne TN, so I think that would be really heavy snow in TN side if thats real. It also has the deformation band down to extreme N. GA so the whole eastern side of TN should get hit with it, but the heavy amounts probably are northeast TN, but I don't know for sure. Then what happens when it comes your way? Don't know yet. You have a shot a quick snow though shortly thereafter. This is all about the time the upper low is in NC and tilting as things are about to get going. I could be very wrong about western VA, they may indeed get walloped with the 7H band that comes over from TN.

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Bout what I figured, I noticed on accuweather radar pocket of blue showing up in foothills but I know those radars are not all that accurate sometimes. You still think I get accum snow ?

Precipitation type radars take into account surface obs as well. There appears to be a report of light snow in that area looking at the 6pm obs. report.

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its going to be interesting to see how the 7H band holds together around 18 hours from now. the latest RUC has it in eastern TN by then (still not quite cold enough TRI) with the 850 in nw NC, and developing UVV in nw NC and ne TN at that time. It looks like that 7H band is either going to start strengthening then, or when it gets just east of the Apps in nw NC and sw VA, so its a really tough call. The flow may actually help east and esp NE TN just after 18 hours since its somewhat upslope by then and some extra cooling is coming in as well. I say good luck hope you get atleast a few hours of good rates...its very possible. I'd def. keep a watch on the RUC features.

It's a good night to be a weather hobbiest, because I'm glad I'm not having to make the call in Morristown(NWS). The RUC is definitely showing anything appreciable at this point(edit: Just noticed your last post. I'll check it out). I've noticed(after watching a few storms this year on it) that it has some problems with what to do w/ the precip once it crosses the Cumberland Plateau. Sometimes it will try to incorrectly enhance it. And others it just loses the moisture completely. Usually, it's a solid model. I'll say this, I thought this might be an inland runner after reading some of Cold Rain's comments in regards to nothing holding it back from doing so. That said, I never thought it would go this far west. Hey, what about that artic shot by the Euro at 12z about seven days out!? While it may or may not verify, it's still impressive to see the model spit that out. Winter is still alive and kicking.

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It's a good night to be a weather hobbiest, because I'm glad I'm not having to make the call in Morristown(NWS). The RUC is definitely showing anything appreciable at this point. I've noticed(after watching a few storms this year on it) that it has some problems with what to do w/ the precip once it crosses the Cumberland Plateau. Sometimes it will try to incorrectly enhance it. And others it just loses the moisture completely. Usually, it's a solid model. I'll say this, I thought this might be an inland runner after reading some of Cold Rain's comments in regards to nothing holding it back from doing so. That said, I never thought it would go this far west. Hey, what about that artic shot by the Euro at 12z about seven days out!? While it may or may not verify, it's still impressive to see the model spit that out. Winter is still alive and kicking.

Yep, I do think the Euro is overdoing it, but at some point we will have a big outbreak I think. Whenever the PNA goes up really positive, but the models keep missing the timing on it. Anyway I think your area is looking good now on getting hit by that band, the only question is how intense and whats the decay of that band? It could be dying as a result of the dynamics going on with the ULL thats in NC at that time and how it all correlates with the surface but it may be just the opposite and actually enhance your rates . I honestly have no clue but would def. keep a watch on the UVV's there, its a little far out in a time frame I don't trust yet, but certainly has NAM and GFS support. Another thing your 850's are dropping to around -3 at a good time and combined with upslope cooling could really get good in a hurry.

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