WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pulled this from DT's FB page via liveweatherblogs.com... NAM red 18z 1/23 GFS orange 12z 1/23 UKMET yellow 00z 1/23 JMA green 12z 1/23 NOGAPS blue 12z 1/23 EURO purple 12z 1/23 CANADIAN white 12z 1/23 DGEX grey 06z 1/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice find thanks!!! Looks like any wood is going with the NOGAPS... Pulled this from DT's FB page via liveweatherblogs.com... NAM red 18z 1/23 GFS orange 12z 1/23 UKMET yellow 00z 1/23 JMA green 12z 1/23 NOGAPS blue 12z 1/23 EURO purple 12z 1/23 CANADIAN white 12z 1/23 DGEX grey 06z 1/23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pulled this from DT's FB page via liveweatherblogs.com... NAM red 18z 1/23 GFS orange 12z 1/23 UKMET yellow 00z 1/23 JMA green 12z 1/23 NOGAPS blue 12z 1/23 EURO purple 12z 1/23 CANADIAN white 12z 1/23 DGEX grey 06z 1/23 Gotta love how the Canadian and NAM are way out there with their solutions. One is an Apps Runner and the other is off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Gotta love how the Canadian and NAM are way out there with their solutions. One is an Apps Runner and the other is off the coast. That just shows how horrible the models are handling this, anything is possible with this storm and like Robert said someone is going to be in for a surprise I just hope it's us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 In the foothills of NC it will be interesting to see what happens. Some where in the Foothills or northwest Piedmont of NC there is going to be a transition zone between snow and rain. This is going to be a very strict line, just like with many other events. Back in December, I remember a situation where Morganton, NC picked up around 1-2 inches of snow on a Sunday morning and at my house approximately 20 miles away it was just a cold rain. That is what is going to happen with this storm also, there will be a strict cut off line between the rain and snow. No one knows where this line is going to set up; however, the places to the west in the snow bands have the chance to see substantial accumulations from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would not put any weight in the 12 and 18z NCEP models guys given the RAOB issues mentioned earlier. Without a further update from the 12z NAM message, there is no indication balloons were launched at 18z to plug the gaps, and an update as far as the 12z GFS. Normally with 4-5 missed stations I would not be concerned, as that happens quite often, but with FFC and BMX out and short to 472mb respectively, that has large implications imo given the energy in question should pass almost overhead of those two stations. If one is insistent on incorporating today's NCEP runs into a forecast, us the 12z GFS ens mean, but even that is not preferred given suspect ingest although it should help to smooth the differences. I have stated several times in the past that when I see extreme solutions 5 days out, the mean usually has a better chance of verifying than the extreme solution seen on the operational. Once we get inside 72hrs and extreme solutions are continuing to be shown, than one has to consider based on what all the deterministic and ensemble guidance is showing. If I had to make a forecast based on everything up until this point, it would be weighted heavily on the 0z op ECWMF blended with its ens mean to smooth things over. What caught me with the NCEP runs today was the lack of a sig close-off at 500mb, very dissimilar than the GGEM, ECMWF, and UKMET, but we do not know how accurate there 12z runs were with the missing said stations ingest data. As far as the Euro loosing a solution it was locked in on 4-5 days out, only to bring it back within 48hrs, I have noticed that also. In talking to one of our Chief's here in the east, the only thing we can come up with is good ingest upstream, maybe over Russia in the 5-7 day, coupled with a gap over the northern Pac and Canada, and back on once it gets into the US network. Not sure how accurate this is but we have seen several examples of it this winter, Christmas storm and the OBX dumping yesterday are two. How is this going to unfold; I don't know, but does anybody? In order to get SN outside of the mountains, and even there could be in doubt given a GGEM or UKMET track, we need a sig wrap up at H5, and quick! A closed >540dm low is not going to cut it, and that throws caution with areas further south such as GA or SC, excluding the far N or W portions of those states respectively. Around here, and in that referring to the area from GSO towards RWI and back to RDU, maybe even down towards Florence, we want a solution similar to the Euro, but just a few DM deeper at 500mb. 538'ish entering NC west of Lumberton, and < 534 exiting around Elizabeth City would support a changeover in the wake as cooling is realized at the surface. But 545'ish as the GFS and NAM showed, and let alone an open wave will not cut it. I found this interesting from MHX this afternoon, as they are a very conservative office, but am sure they are taking the 0 and 12z EC as there is some wiggle room even here given what is passing overhead. And for anyone banking on surface temps in modeled output as shown, one has to look no further than the Crystal Coast of NC yesterday as all the guidance was around 5F to warm at the surface for the duration of their event, which verified in the mid and upper 20's. Best educated guess on track is 1008 from Pensacola to 995 over or just east of Hatteras, H5 closes off and starts to deepen around Macon and offshore around Norfolk. Awesome post! Are you sure you're not a met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Pulled this from DT's FB page via liveweatherblogs.com... NAM red 18z 1/23 GFS orange 12z 1/23 UKMET yellow 00z 1/23 JMA green 12z 1/23 NOGAPS blue 12z 1/23 EURO purple 12z 1/23 CANADIAN white 12z 1/23 DGEX grey 06z 1/23 So percentage wise these models are showing 37.5% coastal, 37.5% inland, 12.5% App Runner, or 12.5% OTS....talk about a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Welcome fellow wnc foothills person.. I agree 100% with this. Im on the eastern side on Rutherford County and would be on the ra in the county. Going to be close and sharp... In the foothills of NC it will be interesting to see what happens. Some where in the Foothills or northwest Piedmont of NC there is going to be a transition zone between snow and rain. This is going to be a very strict line, just like with many other events. Back in December, I remember a situation where Morganton, NC picked up around 1-2 inches of snow on a Sunday morning and at my house approximately 20 miles away it was just a cold rain. That is what is going to happen with this storm also, there will be a strict cut off line between the rain and snow. No one knows where this line is going to set up; however, the places to the west in the snow bands have the chance to see substantial accumulations from this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hope they are wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hope they are wrong.... Accuwx couldn't make a good call map for this storm to save their lives. Just look back on Christmas and then the last storm where they had all of NC with ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hope they are wrong.... CK the source....their track record here in the SE is only good the day of....sometimes not then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Accuwx couldn't make a good call map for this storm to save their lives. Just look back on Christmas and then the last storm where they had all of NC with ZR. Gotta love how the SN line intersects DC, BWI, PHI, NYC, and BOS, typical accuweather catering to their major markets and based more on revenue source rather than objective reasoning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burkecountync Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Welcome fellow wnc foothills person.. I agree 100% with this. Im on the eastern side on Rutherford County and would be on the ra in the county. Going to be close and sharp... Thank you for the welcome, I have always been fascinated with the weather here in general. This is going to be one of those events where no one will know what is going to happen until the event begins. I do not even care what the models say up to the event, unless they shift to a track where the upper level low goes to our west. This event is shaping up to be an event where north of 85 places could pick up 3-6 or 4-8 inches of snow or it could just be a cold rain. Lets see what happens, this event will be a nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Agree and welcome again! Thank you for the welcome, I have always been fascinated with the weather here in general. This is going to be one of those events where no one will know what is going to happen until the event begins. I do not even care what the models say up to the event, unless they shift to a track where the upper level low goes to our west. This event is shaping up to be an event where north of 85 places could pick up 3-6 or 4-8 inches of snow or it could just be a cold rain. Lets see what happens, this event will be a nowcasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. Calm wind becoming east around 5 mph. Monday: Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 44. North wind at 6 mph becoming south. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 27. Calm wind. Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow before 1pm, then rain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain and snow likely before 9pm, then snow between 9pm and 11pm, then rain and snow after 11pm. Low around 34. Northeast wind between 3 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible. Wednesday: Rain and snow before 4pm, then a chance of rain between 4pm and 5pm, then a chance of rain and snow after 5pm. High near 37. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Wednesday Night: A chance of snow before 9pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 30% Looks like GSP is keeping us in the game for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That just shows how horrible the models are handling this, anything is possible with this storm and like Robert said someone is going to be in for a surprise I just hope it's us No one knows what us going to happen with this system. If anyone calls it right either way for rain or snow, they are just making a lucky guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0z time: The Spam is out now. heres to knowing as little in 4 hours as we do now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 lol @24 hours on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Why use Accuweather maps, they are worthless. Hope they are wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM looks like it's going to show us something different......again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 It looks like it's popping a second low to the south of the low in LA and those are interacting with each other...so it went from a nice low to sheering then going to two strong lows? Very odd looking on the NAM between around 12 through 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NAM looks like it's going to show us something different......again. The model madness just doesn't know when to end. Honestly, I'm about at a point where I really wished the models would just latch onto SOMETHING but given the variability of this upcoming event, we probably won't see that until 12 hours before or heck even during the day the event is unfolding if we end up going that far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 850's on the NAM are slightly colder so far @39 but it won't account for much I'm sure later on....low is really gaining strength in LA and the other low is half way down FL but it looks like it might be turning the corner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would not put any weight in the 12 and 18z NCEP models guys given the RAOB issues mentioned earlier. Without a further update from the 12z NAM message, there is no indication balloons were launched at 18z to plug the gaps, and an update as far as the 12z GFS. Normally with 4-5 missed stations I would not be concerned, as that happens quite often, but with FFC and BMX out and short to 472mb respectively, that has large implications imo given the energy in question should pass almost overhead of those two stations. If one is insistent on incorporating today's NCEP runs into a forecast, us the 12z GFS ens mean, but even that is not preferred given suspect ingest although it should help to smooth the differences. I have stated several times in the past that when I see extreme solutions 5 days out, the mean usually has a better chance of verifying than the extreme solution seen on the operational. Once we get inside 72hrs and extreme solutions are continuing to be shown, than one has to consider based on what all the deterministic and ensemble guidance is showing. If I had to make a forecast based on everything up until this point, it would be weighted heavily on the 0z op ECWMF blended with its ens mean to smooth things over. What caught me with the NCEP runs today was the lack of a sig close-off at 500mb, very dissimilar than the GGEM, ECMWF, and UKMET, but we do not know how accurate there 12z runs were with the missing said stations ingest data. As far as the Euro loosing a solution it was locked in on 4-5 days out, only to bring it back within 48hrs, I have noticed that also. In talking to one of our Chief's here in the east, the only thing we can come up with is good ingest upstream, maybe over Russia in the 5-7 day, coupled with a gap over the northern Pac and Canada, and back on once it gets into the US network. Not sure how accurate this is but we have seen several examples of it this winter, Christmas storm and the OBX dumping yesterday are two. How is this going to unfold; I don't know, but does anybody? In order to get SN outside of the mountains, and even there could be in doubt given a GGEM or UKMET track, we need a sig wrap up at H5, and quick! A closed >540dm low is not going to cut it, and that throws caution with areas further south such as GA or SC, excluding the far N or W portions of those states respectively. Around here, and in that referring to the area from GSO towards RWI and back to RDU, maybe even down towards Florence, we want a solution similar to the Euro, but just a few DM deeper at 500mb. 538'ish entering NC west of Lumberton, and < 534 exiting around Elizabeth City would support a changeover in the wake as cooling is realized at the surface. But 545'ish as the GFS and NAM showed, and let alone an open wave will not cut it. I found this interesting from MHX this afternoon, as they are a very conservative office, but am sure they are taking the 0 and 12z EC as there is some wiggle room even here given what is passing overhead. And for anyone banking on surface temps in modeled output as shown, one has to look no further than the Crystal Coast of NC yesterday as all the guidance was around 5F to warm at the surface for the duration of their event, which verified in the mid and upper 20's. Best educated guess on track is 1008 from Pensacola to 995 over or just east of Hatteras, H5 closes off and starts to deepen around Macon and offshore around Norfolk. I meant to say, this is an excellent post. Very good points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam looks like it is coming in colder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Frank Strait just posted on FB saying that the 0z NAM was like the canadian. Not sure how he knows already. Doesn't look like it to me, not sure how that low would run up the apps out to 42....this one could be interesting for NC though as it's taking it's sweet time in LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Doesn't look like it to me, not sure how that low would run up the apps out to 42....this one could be interesting for NC though as it's taking it's sweet time in LA. yea my bad that was from last night lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 If the NAM can link up both lows then look out this could be a major moisture producer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 On the NAM that low in the GOM is really bombing I want to see where it ends up going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If the NAM can link up both lows then look out this could be a major moisture producer. I'd welcome the heavy rain.. just wish it were 70 degrees and not 40! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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