Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ya that sheet rock dust will do wonders for your sinuses. Frosty knows thats why they make ditches so you can bounce off them and get right back on the road! He's probably heading back from the VA snow chase now that he has a chance of snow! man you working in the same drywall dust that made Robert sick last week, quit smoking it Pilot!! Frosty called me and about wrecked when he read your post you need to stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So if things pan out the way DT expects ME, Powerstroke, Big Frosty, and the new kid Northern Foothills Snowman will be the only one's in this discussion thread. I can only wonder how much weather will be discussed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So if things pan out the way DT expects ME, Powerstroke, Big Frosty, and the new kid Northern Foothills Snowman will be the only one's in this discussion thread. I can only wonder how much weather will be discussed? I'm still in here just hoping someone shows something different with real time predicitions....like..."Oh, look, it's staying futher south, not moving as much." I'm in here because I like learning, too. Back on topic now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If foothills don't say we have a chance, I don't buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tullioz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So if things pan out the way DT expects ME, Powerstroke, Big Frosty, and the new kid Northern Foothills Snowman will be the only one's in this discussion thread. I can only wonder how much weather will be discussed? And me. lol Looking at the 12z Hires models it looks like the counties right along the VA border get close to .5" after sounding support snow as far East as Caswell County. Looks like the possibility for 3 to 5 inches is still on the table according to those models from about my area North and West with much more up into Virginia. Both the NAM and GFS were less impressive but still show the possibility of accumulating snow up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterhawk Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and it just gets more interesting; WSW posted.. TN just might do well.... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/ Good thing that snow will stop at the GA border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z RUC goes crazy with the freezing line @18, heck maybe some snow will make it's way into NC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I also noticed on the HPC surface Analysis that the storm is a little farther east. You also can see the split happening. Also look @ the 1024 High in NE NC http://www.hpc.ncep....s_exp_test.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 and it just gets more interesting; WSW posted.. TN just might do well.... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hun/ Good thing that snow will stop at the GA border... knowing our luck in ga for this event it will lol... either the cold air wont get to ga by the time the precip leaves or the radar will show al getting hit and then it moves ne in TN (yes i realize thats not why you posted that i am just being a sour puss today). although looking at the latest images it appears that the latter may very well happen with the split. [sarcasm]gfs sure did well on this event, didnt it[/sarcasm] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Maybe I'm missing something, but it looks like the 18z NAM closes off at hr 18 then opens back up at hr 24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ji's house gets plastered per the 18z NAM. Precip and the ULL are way too far north to help NC out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 knowing our luck in ga for this event it will lol... either the cold air wont get to ga by the time the precip leaves or the radar will show al getting hit and then it moves ne in TN (yes i realize thats not why you posted that i am just being a sour puss today). although looking at the latest images it appears that the latter may very well happen with the split. [sarcasm]gfs sure did well on this event, didnt it[/sarcasm] I'm not so sure I understand the angst coming from the catbird seat Heck, I've got snow flurries back in my point forecast, and flurries is all I ever expected out of this. I've got near a quarter inch of rain so far..never a bad thing. A cold wind is blowing from the north so it feels like a nice cold rain even if it is 41, so it feels great outside. Winter has weeks and weeks to go and it isn't 70 like so many Jan. I've encountered. Blocking will come back, I'm sure. And I've decided since the Christmas anti snow record fell, the next to fall this year is the anti sn/ip 1st week of Feb. so I'm looking to get covered up in sleet next week. Shoot, things seem grand down here in Pollyannaish Rationalization Land, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm just curious what path this surface low is really gonna take. The 1008mb low is currently sitting slightly south of Mobile and all day long has been heading almost due east while the moisture split and some went to west TN and the other south and east. http://www.daculaweather.com/conus/mesoanalysis.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm not so sure I understand the angst coming from the catbird seat Heck, I've got snow flurries back in my point forecast, and flurries is all I ever expected out of this. I've got near a quarter inch of rain so far..never a bad thing. A cold wind is blowing from the north so it feels like a nice cold rain even if it is 41, so it feels great outside. Winter has weeks and weeks to go and it isn't 70 like so many Jan. I've encountered. Blocking will come back, I'm sure. And I've decided since the Christmas anti snow record fell, the next to fall this year is the anti sn/ip 1st week of Feb. so I'm looking to get covered up in sleet next week. Shoot, things seem grand down here in Pollyannaish Rationalization Land, lol. T my angst has been lessened - gsp mentions ne ga and the upstate mtns might see snow lol. i havent seen much to indicate that, but will admit i havent been looking at the runs today with too much detail I'm just curious what path this surface low is really gonna take. The 1008mb low is currently sitting slightly south of Mobile and all day long has been heading almost due east while the moisture split and some went to west TN and the other south and east. i was sort of wondering the same thing - and with a small area of snow it still seems a bit up in the air exactly where that will be - although it looks like western tn may get in on the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
socar2001 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 are the northern nc mountains around banner elk still in the game or are they out of it to? i see they are calling for 2-4 inches but i just dont see it on the latest models. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Much heavier rain falling now...and I mean tropical...just started with a whoosh!!! T Edit...that was pretty cool. Hope I get in one of those elements in the morning when it might count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks from the SPC map that the low has gone to a neutral tilt... just a matter of time. Just to the west of Memphis is a very sharp drop in web bulbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks from the SPC map that the low has gone to a neutral tilt... just a matter of time. Was it supposed to go at a neutral tilt around this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THIS ADVISORY COVERS AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF A SUMMERVILLE TO ELLIJAY TO BRASSTOWN BALD LINE. surprise, surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS ............. We'll see !!! ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...RAIN. A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN. SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET IN THE MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION 1 TO 2 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What? Now a WS Warning for NE TN? I like it, but this sure seems to be in conflict with most of the discussion today..... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 325 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 ...ACCUMULATING SNOW OR WINTRY MIX EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD A LARGE AREA OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REGION THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT THEN SWITCH TO SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY WHEN THE COLDER AIR WILL FLOW INTO THE REGION...CAUSING THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE BY WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE WEDNESDAY MID MORNING INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING... IN THE WINTER STORM WATCH AREA. A GENERAL SNOWFALL OF 2 TO 5 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE VERY HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...AND THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What? Now a WS Warning for NE TN? I like it, but this sure seems to be in conflict with most of the discussion today..... Sounds about right. Keep the upper low in mind, it's what most likely bring the snow for you. As far as when it was suppose to go neutral... I do believe now was the time but I've already forgotten what the models were calling for now! It should go negative somewhere off of Savannah or Charleston. EDIT: BUT SINCE NOTHING ABOUT THIS STORM HAS DONE WHAT IT'S SUPPOSE TO DO... ALL BETS ARE OFF! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, Robert has been saying there'd be snow. I'm not sure why all the surprise, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sure is warm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 19z RUC still leaving some hope. At hour 18 there is probably snow around Andrews, NC...Im not holding my breath though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jacob_ Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 BMX must be looking at things differently than FFC. If the lines extended 25 miles past the state line, I would be in the trace to .25" area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 20z RUC accumulated 12-hr precip at hr 12. Where did all our rain go? Western Tennessee looks to get hit good. 20z RUC shows heavy snow around the Memphis area at around 10 PM tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 20z RUC accumulated 12-hr precip at hr 12. Where did all our rain go? Western Tennessee looks to get hit good. 20z RUC shows heavy snow around the Memphis area at around 10 PM tonight. I do believe I'm in that little hole with no precip. Oh Well, enjoyed golf today since we hit nearly 50 and will enjoy what little bit of rain I do get. It kind of stinks that we don't get the snow, but now very little rain probably on top of that.... starting to get pretty dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs is dragging that deformation band through northern nc again. just looking at the 500mb pattern, with that wave sitting over eastern nc and the slp off the coast. once that consolidates, i still think, climo wise, it favors something over western nc/southern va tomorrow. just gonna have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 gfs is dragging that deformation band through northern nc again. just looking at the 500mb pattern, with that wave sitting over eastern nc and the slp off the coast. once that consolidates, i still think, climo wise, it favors something over western nc/southern va tomorrow. just gonna have to wait and see. I noticed that too, It looks like a pretty good thumping around here tomorrow evening on the GFS ? Well IDK if this will support snow or not with 2m temps 2.3 ? Gives me .43 qpf WED 18Z 26-JAN 2.3 -0.8 1004 95 96 0.35 542 538 THU 00Z 27-JAN -0.2 -1.6 1010 92 73 0.08 547 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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