bingcrosbyb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The models in the medium range really failed to to properly handle the energy out west. As of Sunday, the cluster had the ULL rotating through Central AL. The latest RUC sends it up through southern TN! At this rate, the WSW from HSV may not even verify. The NW trends and cold rains are going to be a fact of life for the deep south without any greenland blocking showing up through mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The GFS looks off compared to RUC to me, from very early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The models in the medium range really failed to to properly handle the energy out west. As of Sunday, the cluster had the ULL rotating through Central AL. The latest RUC sends it up through southern TN! At this rate, the WSW from HSV may not even verify. The NW trends and cold rains are going to be a fact of life for the deep south without any greenland blocking showing up through mid February. I think I'll have to respectfully disagree on the cold rains for Feb. Not to say there won't be any but it appears we're entering a very good period for snow potential down south. The strong -AO, a big ridge out west... I see cold and potentially more snow for the SE. It will be interesting to watch when the stratospheric warming begins to take place around the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think I'll have to respectfully disagree on the cold rains for Feb. Not to say there won't be any but it appears we're entering a very good period for snow potential down south. The strong -AO, a big ridge out west... I see cold and potentially more snow for the SE. It will be interesting to watch when the stratospheric warming begins to take place around the 1st. I watched JB a while ago and he said more major cold air heading this way from Feb1-10 at least. He said so strange during La Nina but thats what we got. I will take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The models in the medium range really failed to to properly handle the energy out west. As of Sunday, the cluster had the ULL rotating through Central AL. The latest RUC sends it up through southern TN! At this rate, the WSW from HSV may not even verify. The NW trends and cold rains are going to be a fact of life for the deep south without any greenland blocking showing up through mid February. I'm afraid I don't see any snow now in northern Alabama. The RUC just keeps going further, and further west and north, and the def. band never even touches Alabama now. Nashville is in trouble as well. Its awful to see the nw trend keep on, and on my new map I'm wondering if I went far enough west and north. HOwever at some point the whole 7H system will get pulled east more quickly but by then its gained such latittude that BNA and HSV are probably going to miss it. Certaintly NC and eastern TN will I think now, and even in VA (western) will have to worry . This is lookign more and more like wstrn TN, Ky, southern Indiana and Ohio and PA storm to me. From there into the Northeast I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 does not sound like BNA is in agreement. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 931 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011 .UPDATE... THERE IS ALOT GOING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE PROBABLY AROUND NOON. STILL HAVE A QUESTION ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 LOCALLY BUT COULD BE MORE. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT. EXPECT DYNAMICAL COOLING WITH UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSED 700 MB LOW TRACKS FROM MEM TO CHA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WE DONT SEE TOO MANY CLOSED LOWS AT 700 MB THIS FAR SOUTH. ALSO 850 LOW TRACKS THROUGH MID STATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. MID STATE IN LEFT REAR QUAD OF STRONG UPPER JET. I'm afraid I don't see any snow now in northern Alabama. The RUC just keeps going further, and further west and north, and the def. band never even touches Alabama now. Nashville is in trouble as well. Its awful to see the nw trend keep on, and on my new map I'm wondering if I went far enough west and north. HOwever at some point the whole 7H system will get pulled east more quickly but by then its gained such latittude that BNA and HSV are probably going to miss it. Certaintly NC and eastern TN will I think now, and even in VA (western) will have to worry . This is lookign more and more like wstrn TN, Ky, southern Indiana and Ohio and PA storm to me. From there into the Northeast I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 does not sound like BNA is in agreement. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 931 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011 .UPDATE... THERE IS ALOT GOING FOR HEAVY SNOW IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLAN ON ISSUING A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE PROBABLY AROUND NOON. STILL HAVE A QUESTION ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL. EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ALL OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 LOCALLY BUT COULD BE MORE. WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL IS HARD TO SAY AT THIS POINT. EXPECT DYNAMICAL COOLING WITH UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. CLOSED 700 MB LOW TRACKS FROM MEM TO CHA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WE DONT SEE TOO MANY CLOSED LOWS AT 700 MB THIS FAR SOUTH. ALSO 850 LOW TRACKS THROUGH MID STATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. MID STATE IN LEFT REAR QUAD OF STRONG UPPER JET. I've been watching TN and their discussions. This is such a fast changing system and further and further north and west is what I'm seeing. I just updated my maps and I put BNA on the line. They may get hit hard but to me it looks like west of there now and closer to Jackson and MEM. I'm going all in on the RUC now in such a changing environment, not the NAM GFS or EURO . This isn't very organized. I explained my thoughts more on the call thread. I wish it was more like a day or so ago where the def. band sweeps across much of TN but with teh 5h so far north and nw now, it places more of KY , IND, OH and PA in it , and unfortunately whats happening in HSV is probably going to translate north into central TN, I wish I could say differently though, after what looked so promising. The 850 low sits right over central TN for a long time and that focuses the best lift just west of BNA, and pulls in a dry slot quickly there. edit Also what 7H low there is , is no longer going from MEM to CHA, its in western KY at later stages of the RUC. This is a rapidly changing storm, more west and north is the theme. Huge differences just from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It appears that the rate it's lifting north and east is increasing. The way it's going we'll be out of the rain in two or three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 LOL, well the SE was way overdue for a classic FAIL. Although none of us saw this thing shifting so far north and west you have to just sit back and have a good laugh at what could have been. Amazing.... Also goes to show you how dependent the SE needs everything to line up perfectly in New England and in SE Canada to prevent storms from wrapping up too much and cutting. LOL oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, a lesson here is that the Euro is not always the best model when it comes to time periods under 3 days- with this north trend this is going to be a pretty big FAIL on its resume..... here in ATL I had resigned myself to no snow quite a while ago, but now we look to not get nearly as much rain as hoped. either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It appears that the rate it's lifting north and east is increasing. The way it's going we'll be out of the rain in two or three hours. The dryslot is going to mean business in Ala, Ga and the Carolinas. Hopefully we can get some quarter inch amounts of rain down before that happens though. This is one of those storms where the moisture axis stretches east to west in a flash, and then it will start to pull more east, so areas further to our north will get into duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One thing I have learned from Robert and others is just how difficult it is to keep these systems from going north and west without having a negative NAO. This seems like a prime illustration of that rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't tear up your degree. This is not good though.. well I feel like it. I was really hoping for n. Alabama and for the longest it did look good there, but the way this just keeps edging north is unreal almost. Still think the nw part of the state has a chance though, but probably more toward MEM region and west central TN, and then up into western KY. It even probably gets to the Ohio River. Without a 50/50 or atleast a High over the Lakes, the north limit is really far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keithinala Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 well I feel like it. I was really hoping for n. Alabama and for the longest it did look good there, but the way this just keeps edging north is unreal almost. Still think the nw part of the state has a chance though, but probably more toward MEM region and west central TN, and then up into western KY. It even probably gets to the Ohio River. Without a 50/50 or atleast a High over the Lakes, the north limit is really far north. Models I saw last night, haven't caught up today, had the band rotating from middle tenn into extreme north ala in the morning. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Wow, a lesson here is that the Euro is not always the best model when it comes to time periods under 3 days- with this north trend this is going to be a pretty big FAIL on its resume..... here in ATL I had resigned myself to no snow quite a while ago, but now we look to not get nearly as much rain as hoped. either. I was fortunate enough to realize this was going to be rain all the way pretty early on so I'm not dissappointed at all. I still feel like even if it had not shifted north, this was going to be rain in georgia regardless. So I never was enthused which is a blessing because it sucks to get so excited or encouraged that you will get something only for it to be yanked out from under you at the last minute. But Folks really shouldn't be that dissappointed since we have done so well this winter so far plus winter isn't over yet. I do feel like we have another shot or two of something down the road still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 well I feel like it. I was really hoping for n. Alabama and for the longest it did look good there, but the way this just keeps edging north is unreal almost. Still think the nw part of the state has a chance though, but probably more toward MEM region and west central TN, and then up into western KY. It even probably gets to the Ohio River. Without a 50/50 or atleast a High over the Lakes, the north limit is really far north. Well you can only make a forecast based on what the models are telling you and none of them had it that far north so you shouldn't feel too bad about it. Yes the pattern might have suggested a further northwest track but if none of the models showed it, it's not unreasonable to think it wouldn't. Plus it's not a total given the ruc will be right yet. The specifics of this storm have been hard to nail down for days. The models inconsistency from run to run of the axis of heaviest precip, the track of the upper low, and the track of the surface low has been pretty absurd. Not sure why they have had so much trouble with it but they surely have had a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rxwxunc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That is the beauty and the pain of watching models evolve. It is like watching your favorite team play football. You are all excited thinking the game is won, only to lose on a last second Hail Mary. I hate a cold rain (though we do need the precip.) as much as anyone, but it has been interesting watching this system evolve. Sometimes I wish I would have continued my Meteorology studies instead of pursuing Pharmacy. Though I am glad I don't have to make a call to the public on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well you can only make a forecast based on what the models are telling you and none of them had it that far north so you shouldn't feel too bad about it. Yes the pattern might have suggested a further northwest track but if none of the models showed it, it's not unreasonable to think it wouldn't. Plus it's not a total given the ruc will be right yet. The specifics of this storm have been hard to nail down for days. The models inconsistency from run to run of the axis of heaviest precip, the track of the upper low, and the track of the surface low has been pretty absurd. Not sure why they have had so much trouble with it but they surely have had a lot. Even up through this morning the models were wrong... oh well... on to the next one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tblevins Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, I guess on the bright side, for most, we weren't looking at a foot of snow, only to see it taken away at the very last minute (with drastically reduced QPF). I do appreciate the efforts of the Mets and seasoned experts on the Southeast forums spending a lot of their free time analyzing the models as they come in. I've been around many years on Eastern and now here just taking it all in and its just amazing how difficult it is to predict winter weather in NC and northern sections of SC and Ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 looks like we might be lucky to get a half inch of rain now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well im just east of Memphis and quite happy by the turn of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well im just east of Memphis and quite happy by the turn of events You should be :snowman: Take some pics for us getting cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just trying to call a spade a spade here, but it looks like "DT" (or "Mr DT" I guess??), really called this one good. He called it several days ago that the NW trend was in full effect. His aspect was for the NE but it's the same effect here I believe. Maybe I need to go back and read his post but I think he had it right. Long story short, without a block, the east coast is not going to get much winter weather. We need the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You know the storm is a dud when the Euro is already out to 126 hours and nary a post about it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You know the storm is a dud when the Euro is already out to 126 hours and nary a post about it... I was thinking the same thing. Robert emailed me a while back and said we would win some and we will lose some, this is just one we loss. I am sure something will pop up before winter is over. Last year it did in February and has the past two years in March. No concerns here. Great job by all you Mets. Keep up the great work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just trying to call a spade a spade here, but it looks like "DT" (or "Mr DT" I guess??), really called this one good. He called it several days ago that the NW trend was in full effect. His aspect was for the NE but it's the same effect here I believe. Maybe I need to go back and read his post but I think he had it right. Long story short, without a block, the east coast is not going to get much winter weather. We need the -NAO. Just to think too, it's a wonder, with that progged +NAO, that ridge out west don't get booted east and we go into a typical la nina pattern. Hopefully, other factors will prevent that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well go to his website and guess what I'm in the 3 to 5 3 to 6 area. Big Frosty should like this one. He did a adjustment around 12:00 PM today. http://www.wxrisk.com/ Just trying to call a spade a spade here, but it looks like "DT" (or "Mr DT" I guess??), really called this one good. He called it several days ago that the NW trend was in full effect. His aspect was for the NE but it's the same effect here I believe. Maybe I need to go back and read his post but I think he had it right. Long story short, without a block, the east coast is not going to get much winter weather. We need the -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You know the storm is a dud when the Euro is already out to 126 hours and nary a post about it... Well the Euro shows a nice warm rain next Tuesday. No winter weather in sight. I would be happy if it showed a real early spring! Although it does get cold after this rain storm. Just need some moisture now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Good things coming next week. Just time to reload, that's all! And yes, thanks to all the mets and others for an outstanding job tracking this storm. It was very difficult (hell, still is!) to forecast, as difficult as I've seen in a long time. And Robert... never tear up that diploma, you're are awesome at what you do and this place just wouldn't be the same without your knowledge and experience. This work is almost as much an art as it is a science, and it's those mets that can see past the data and see the bigger picture that are the ones that are good... and your great! That goes for all the mets, forecasters, and regular people that share their knowledge. I'm very glad I found this place! Great job guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Go to website and scroll down to JAN 25 26 27 First map will see it day finial call. Your probably in the 3 to 6 http://www.wxrisk.com/ I pray that map is right as well my our area but where did you find this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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