calculus1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Does anybody else see the precip moving farther NE earlier than perhaps forecasted? The temp is still in the low to mid 20s here in the lee of the mountains in the foothills of NC. I'm now seeing radar returns spreading into the southern foothills of NC. Is that virga or is it reaching the ground down there? Just curious as to whether some wintry weather might make it up here at the beginning before it all changes to rain. Here's intellicast's HIRES radar: http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Everyone still thinking that there is going to be no snow? The RUC shows some heavy heavy snow later tonight in Mississippi, and Tennessee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z NAM might still be some flurries for our area @30...it looks interesting around RDU but still looks a little too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 @33 NAM says RDU might change over to some brief snow...this still needs to be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh, there will be snow in TN and MS, Memphis is calling for 3-6", Nashville about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I really I want to throw the NAM out. Because it's so light on precipitation overall, that it just doesn't match up with the radar.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh, there will be snow in TN and MS, Memphis is calling for 3-6", Nashville about the same. Dacula station is up and running would like to do the weather station on my thread like yours, if you could help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I really I want to throw the NAM out. Because it's so light on precipitation overall, that it just doesn't match up with the radar.. Let's keep the NAM. Nice blob of snow that grazes NNC and, incidentally, MBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Let's keep the NAM. Nice blob of snow that grazes NNC and, incidentally, MBY. The RUC is going hard on this one, and if we can get what it shows for Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas here, then we would be in good shape. The RUC absolutely hammers those areas. I would put some faith into it because it matches up with the radar. I also just looked at the Euro from last night, and it gives a lot of people 2-4" of snow @48, so that's also something we can put a little faith into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The RUC is going hard on this one, and if we can get what it shows for Mississippi, Tennessee, and Arkansas here, then we would be in good shape. The RUC absolutely hammers those areas. I would put some faith into it because it matches up with the radar. I also just looked at the Euro from last night, and it gives a lot of people 2-4" of snow @48, so that's also something we can put a little faith into. The last time I looked at the RUC (yesterday), it was quite a bit north of the NAM. Is that still true? Sitting here in math class and can't exactly look! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if the precip gets in here soon, it will be sleet and ZR. My wetbulb is 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 if the precip gets in here soon, it will be sleet and ZR. My wetbulb is 28. Durn you're staying cool, I'm at 34 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The last time I looked at the RUC (yesterday), it was quite a bit north of the NAM. Is that still true? Sitting here in math class and can't exactly look! As a college math professor, I take offense to you looking at weather in the middle of a math class! No, seriously, math and weather seem to be quite closely tied together. Where else do all these models come from except through extrapolation of data and observations? Now, as to your question regarding the NAM vs RUC, they look very similar at 12 hours, in my opinion. Neither shows any serious precip making inroads into NC. They have heavy precip in N AL/MS and S TN. The upper reach of the projected precip is into S KY. Now, back to your class? Which class is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This strong upper low is going to generate a big dry slot right through central NC this evening. The trends for this storm here have gone from ice storm, to mostly snow, to heavy rain, to light - moderate rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SuperNET Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 if the precip gets in here soon, it will be sleet and ZR. My wetbulb is 28. 33°/25° 30° WB here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Durn you're staying cool, I'm at 34 already. it doesn't show up on here, but theres a weak high in nw NC thats keeping western NC cold and dry, you can see it on another obs map. If the precip comes in before too long it will be sleet to start. If steady precip were to occur, we'd barely get to 34 today. http://www.motoweatherman.com/radarGSP_loop/default.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 it doesn't show up on here, but theres a weak high in nw NC thats keeping western NC cold and dry, you can see it on another obs map. If the precip comes in before too long it will be sleet to start. If steady precip were to occur, we'd barely get to 34 today. http://www.motoweatherman.com/radarGSP_loop/default.php Robert, that's not another one of your phantom highs is it? Lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nashville, Tn checking in.... Looking at the 12Z NAM QPF over our area is insane. Given this is not all snow, as soon as bufkit data is available I will run it and check. OHX predicts changeover in BNA around 9pm. I think the Current forecast for Middle Tennessee esp BNA is a little low right now. I would raise our area to 3-5" with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nothing but middle 30s and clouds here. Progged high is 45. the way the temps have been looking here today, we'll probably easily make that. Edit: now some light sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Robert, that's not another one of your phantom highs is it? Lol.. just tie a kerosene rag around your ankles...J/K, no its real, but weak. Just part of the main high that broke off as the main slid out to sea last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 14z RUC still hitting areas with big snows. I can only hope that it will come this way. This is the only model Im going to watch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I tried to look at the RGEM. It looked like a lot of precip. It appeared that the tail end of it could be snow for areas of northern NC. Can anyone give us an analysis. I am no good at reading those maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Precip seems to be spreading further north and east quicker than is being modeled. Isn't this always the case? Not sure what that says for backside snow around the ULL, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Robert, you have to love those meso highs that either form out of the cooling due to precip or being pitched off from the main high such as this one. They can really throw a monkey wrench into things sometimes and have caused many a busted forecast. Indeed if precip can come in and cool western nc in time, it will reenforce that high. Not sure how widespread freezing temps would be since daytime heating has caused some areas to be right at the threshold of being too warm per mesonet and Of course with no new caa, latent heat and waa will warm it up but it would be interesting to see how long it could hang on in areas that do. It's a shame it didn't come in just a little sooner because of daytime heating raising the temps a bit. If it had, it could have been really interesting for the damming regions. Hell, right before precip moved in after sunrise I was at 34/26 and dropped to 32.2 after a period of rain/sleet but it didn't last long enough to reach my actual wetbulb. Who knows, if it had been 6 hours sooner that cold air could have held on for a little while even here. I've seen shallow subfreezing airmasses with these wedges hang on an incredibly long time in the face of strong waa if there is a meso high involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I noticed that the 14z RUC has this thing closed off at 18 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Someone correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the low beginning to go negative? Was watching the SPC Meso maps http://www.daculaweather.com/conus/mesoanalysis.php also noticed the wet bulbs dropping pretty quickly where the upper level low is coming in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For folks watching the storm in Tn, Ms and Ky, you need to be watching the RUC now, not NAM or anything else really. At 14 hours it begins to cut off over western TN, and the surface low starts crawling up the Apps Spine. Everything obviously has been trending so much further north and west since 2 days ago. The Deformation band is going to get western Tn and western Ky, the bootheel of Mo, and even graze southern Indiana and southern Ohio with the 5H so far west. Surprise, we actually started seeing signs of this a while back, yet the globals and short range couldn't catch up. With no 50/50, the door is open for even further west and north movement, but time is now limited. Also there is weak in-situ high over Coastal New England constantly showing up (don't think an icestorm in NC though). Its just fascinating to watch a cutoff now is going to form around MEM when just 2 days ago it was forecast on many models to be between Mobile and Montgomery. Like many have noted over the years, southern systems have a strong tendency to work their way north and west with time, without a strong 50/50 supressed flow especially. And not just going by GFS progs either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Someone correct me if I'm wrong but isn't the low beginning to go negative? Was watching the SPC Meso maps http://www.daculawea...esoanalysis.php also noticed the wet bulbs dropping pretty quickly where the upper level low is coming in. Still positively tilted per the 14z RUC initialization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 btw. It looks to get well down in the 20's overnight Wednesday. May be some slick roads Thursday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Robert, you have to love those meso highs that either form out of the cooling due to precip or being pitched off from the main high such as this one. They can really throw a monkey wrench into things sometimes and have caused many a busted forecast. Indeed if precip can come in and cool western nc in time, it will reenforce that high. Not sure how widespread freezing temps would be since daytime heating has caused some areas to be right at the threshold of being too warm per mesonet and Of course with no new caa, latent heat and waa will warm it up but it would be interesting to see how long it could hang on in areas that do. It's a shame it didn't come in just a little sooner because of daytime heating raising the temps a bit. If it had, it could have been really interesting for the damming regions. Hell, right before precip moved in after sunrise I was at 34/26 and dropped to 32.2 after a period of rain/sleet but it didn't last long enough to reach my actual wetbulb. Who knows, if it had been 6 hours sooner that cold air could have held on for a little while even here. I've seen shallow subfreezing airmasses with these wedges hang on an incredibly long time in the face of strong waa if there is a meso high involved. I think it was Larry Lee from GSP that came up to my Adv Synoptic class and did a very nice presentation about CAD in the Carolinas. He talked about how sometimes when one of these meso highs forms over North Carolina it can make it darn near impossible to break down the CAD over the foothills and western upstate while places further north get in on the WAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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