Marion_NC_WX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know this thread is specific for our storm coming up but I gotta remark on just how brutal and consistant the GFS is and has been on a massive arctic outbreak the first week in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I cant believe Lookout isnt here to talk about Glenn Mother F'n Burns. Sounded like earlier he was officially "checking out" on this storm. We really would need a major surprise to get anything out of this in our neck of the woods. That being said, Glenn MF Burns really rubs him the wrong way. To me, he's just plain silly and pretty good for comic relief. During severe weather, watching him you'd think Atlanta was going through the Moore, OK 1999 tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Interestingly Lubbock, TX currently reporting light snow @ 36F and models don't seem to be doing a great job out west....rogue mesoscale snow. From Lubbock NWS: CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT CHANCES FOR SNOW AT BOTHTAF SITES THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. SO FAR...MODELS DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON HOW THINGS ARE EVOLVING AND HAVE KEPT THE MAJORITY OF THE SNOW FORECAST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES. OPTED TO CONTINUE THE TIMING IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS BUT DID START TO BRING CEILINGS DOWN A BIT FASTER CLOSE TO THE MVFR RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE STILL IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CEILINGS WILL DIP DOWN INTO HIGH IFR RANGE. ALL THAT BEING SAID...DO NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THINGS UNFOLD. http://images.intell...s/Radar/law.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You can see the cold air pressing in from the NW, and what seems to be some type of east to west flow up around Central Penn. But I don't know about the models not catching on to the cold. Maybe the High to the North is staying longer and is stronger than being forecast. Here's WV http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 each run of the RUC keeps pushing the heavy RH and lift toward MEM. I think western TN will switch to extremely heavy snow tomorrow during the day and rack up, somewhere very near MEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro is further north, very similar to NAM. the 5H closes off between HSV and BNA and goes east across NC, then really tightens up and has a strong sfc low that wallops DC PHL NYC and the New England Coast. I didn't study qpf so much but in general its lighter in TN than I thought it would be, and western VA as well, as most of the precip in western VA is rain before the switch but thereafter its a big snow hit in VA up to the northeast. NC basically misses it, maybe an inch or 2 in the mnts and nw NC but the gist is this is trending further and further north, with both the def. band and the 5H. Matches the SREF really well, check out its comma head and follow it to get an idea of what the Euro is doing. The dryslot shows up nicely in SC and GA, but not quite as much in NC, although thats probably an error in general as the system stretches out to the west and east, there will be a fast dry slot in GA and SC and southern NC. About .25" to .50" total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The euro is further north, very similar to NAM. the 5H closes off between HSV and BNA and goes east across NC, then really tightens up and has a strong sfc low that wallops DC PHL NYC and the New England Coast. I didn't study qpf so much but in general its lighter in TN than I thought it would be, and western VA as well, as most of the precip in western VA is rain before the switch but thereafter its a big snow hit in VA up to the northeast. NC basically misses it, maybe an inch or 2 in the mnts and nw NC but the gist is this is trending further and further north, with both the def. band and the 5H. Matches the SREF really well, check out its comma head and follow it to get an idea of what the Euro is doing. The dryslot shows up nicely in SC and GA, but not quite as much in NC, although thats probably an error in general as the system stretches out to the west and east, there will be a fast dry slot in GA and SC and southern NC. About .25" to .50" total. Thanks for that...still had a tiny bit of hope that something would happen in the NE part of GA here, but looks like rain is gonna be the only solution...although we have one of our mets out of ATL talking about how we need to watch out, or N GA needs to watch out, something like that. Temps were progged to be a limit of 30 with clouds, and we've dropped to 26 and clear as a bell outside here. Have a great evening Robert! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm currently 21 and dp 14.5 and i'm going to have a rain storm less than 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 06z NAM shows a pertty good thump here in N.NC @ 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm currently 21 and dp 14.5 and i'm going to have a rain storm less than 12 hours 26 deg with 19 dp in ORNC havnt had a really good 33 and rain yet, this winter...lucky me i love NC weather btw.... the topography kills it...so to speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NWS forecast........... Maybe a inch ? .TODAY...PARTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...RAIN. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHEAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 80 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...RAIN. SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. COOLER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH...BECOMING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW AND RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 OHX punts the Mid Tenn advisory call to the morning shift: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN 341 AM CST TUE JAN 25 2011 .DISCUSSION...MOISTURE FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM...CENTERED OVER THE LOUISANA COAST...IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH HALF AND 40S SOUTH HALF...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE NEARLY ALL RAIN. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE FAR NW COUNTIES AND IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PLATEAU. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AND BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE EVENING. THIS TRANSITION PERIOD WILL LAST LONGER IN THE EASTERN SECTIONS SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE THERE LATER. ALL SNOW EXPECTED BY LATE TONIGHT. THE 700MB LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRAVEL RIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSTATE...MOSTLY OVER THE SERN HALF. I MENTION THIS SINCE IT WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON SNOW ACCUMULATION TONIGHT AND WED AM. IF IT TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH...THEN ACCUMULATIONS MAY BE LESS. THE DANGER HERE IS THAT THE UVV CENTERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL CONCENTRATE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN AREAS THAT THEY PASS OVER. THE "EXACT" TRACK OF THESE UVV CENTERS IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. THEREFORE...WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. DAYSHIFT WILL DECIDE...AFTER LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL RUNS...WHERE TO ISSUE ADVISORYS/WARNINGS. SNOW TAPERS OFF ON WED PM WITH FLURRIES POSSIBLE WED NGT AND THU AM. AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD GET INTO THE MID 30S WED PM...THUS THERE WILL BE SOME MELTING OF SNOW ON MOST ROADWAYS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, good morning guys! Looks too warm for snow here. Seeing a BIG dry slot in the radar loops, looks like someone carved out a box http://www.daculawea...iana_master.php over Louisiana. Just not feeling the love here! Looks like the upper level low is playing catch up to the surface low (which is barely moving). Not that I'll get anything but rain but I guess it's better than nothing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Nice temp gradient this morning. I am guessing less cloud cover over the piedmont? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well everyone, almost a week wasted watching this potential and now here we are at D Day. What an up and down ride for many of us but it's been fun to watch for sure. Thank's to all the METs and the very smart hobbiest who continue to make this forum the best! Good luck to everyone and here's hoping there are some surprises with the ULL as it develops and moves through. Enjoy your snow TN people! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well everyone, almost a week wasted watching this potential and now here we are at D Day. What an up and down ride for many of us but it's been fun to watch for sure. Thank's to all the METs and the very smart hobbiest who continue to make this forum the best! Good luck to everyone and here's hoping there are some surprises with the ULL as it develops and moves through. Enjoy your snow TN people! Yep feels like we took the prettiest girl in school on 50 dates only to get rejected for the prom, just one of those storms. But hey the 6z has something 200+ hours out so on to that one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's amazing how often this happens.... via RAH WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTH TOWARDS THE CAROLINASTHIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SPINS UP IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS. HOWEVER THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT CENTRAL NC MAY ONCE AGAIN MISS OUT ON THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. THE LATEST NAM AND EC HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS(> 0.50")TO THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WHILE THE GFS STILL PRODUCE AS MUCH AS MUCH AS IN INCH ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO HALF AN INCH NEAR THE TRIANGLE. WILL KEEP CATEGORICAL/NEAR 100 PERCENT POPS...BUT WILL LOWER QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yep feels like we took the prettiest girl in school on 50 dates only to get rejected for the prom, just one of those storms. But hey the 6z has something 200+ hours out so on to that one! LOL, so true... oh well that is life here in the SE. Vast majority of threats never turn out but they are fun to watch. If anything I have learned a lot following this storm. This year I have decided to post a lot less and just sit back and learn so that next year I'll be jumping in with some PBP myself that is worth while. Thankfully we still have February to look forward to which looks cold cold cold... maybe we will get some blocking to set back up and end the winter with a bang which I think at some point will happen. Maybe 2 week in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FFC's new map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like the low has a more neutral appearance to it now, not there yet but headed that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So true Amos, so true... Looking forward to seeing who gets rocked today into tomorrow... Well everyone, almost a week wasted watching this potential and now here we are at D Day. What an up and down ride for many of us but it's been fun to watch for sure. Thank's to all the METs and the very smart hobbiest who continue to make this forum the best! Good luck to everyone and here's hoping there are some surprises with the ULL as it develops and moves through. Enjoy your snow TN people! What could have been .. Radar looks great....If we only have a big ole H pushing down that cold air.. But hey the 6z has something 200+ hours out so on to that one! Enough time for it to pull N and W ...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You can see by the Texas loop evidence of the upper level low as it catches the surface low http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_texas_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 5% tornado risk by SPC http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk_1300.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So let me get this straight. Glen Burns thinks his model can pinpoint pop up storms 12 hours ahead of time but disagrees with it on this storm. That might be enough to wake Lookout up. Yeah, I watched that last night as well. You have to give him credit for stepping outside the boundaries of his storm tracker 2 radar. At least he was not looking for rotation... at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looking at radar looks like it's about to do the carolina split... lol One batch going up west of Apps and the other headed for coast ! And you know the ULL is going to follow the western batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, I watched that last night as well. You have to give him credit for stepping outside the boundaries of his storm tracker 2 radar. At least he was not looking for rotation... at least not yet. We all should have a "North Georgia" over/under bet on here as to the date than Glenn Burns does scan his radar for rotation or explains the Barrons Tornado Index. God he loves that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yea did anyone see Matt's video with the temperatures in NC? Classic CAD with 20's and upper teens right down 85 all the way in to upstate SC. If only it could have been here a little sooner. Oh well, on to the next storm and good luck to those with the possibility of snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yea, I have been watching that. Mos has us in the upper 40s' and low 50s...I dont see that happening... Hmm not sure yet how much effect this will have but you can clearly see as the rain moves in the wedge building back down all the way into NE Bama along with the temps cooling in the NW part of the SE. http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/loopsh.php?based=archive/sfc/ustemp&loopid=Current+Temps"]Temps Loop[/url] [ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gtg947h Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 5% tornado risk by SPC http://www.spc.noaa....1otlk_1300.html PREFERRED BLENDED SOLUTION BRINGS THE WARM FRONT QUITE CLOSE TO THE COASTLINE BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z TODAY. LIFTED INDICES AND CAPE VALUES BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ACCORDINGLY...SUGGESTING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN QUESTION REMAINS THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT TO COASTAL COUNTIES. DYNAMICS ARE IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...HOWEVER EVEN THE MORE AGGRESSIVE GFS SOLUTION LIMITS INSTABILITY OVER LAND AREAS. ELEVATED CONVECTION COULD BE A POSSIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION ANYTHING MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE ZONES. LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK KEEPS MAIN THREAT AREA TO THE SOUTH...WITH JUST A 5 PERCENT RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COUNTIES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE COASTAL WARM FRONT DOES PUSH ONSHORE MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER COULD INCREASE DRAMATICALLY. WILL DEFINITELY NEED TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS POTENT SYSTEM THROUGH THE DAY...AS ANY DEVIATION IN TRACK AND STRENGTH COULD GREATLY AFFECT IMPACTS. THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE BEACHES OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS...HOWEVER THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES IF THE LOW TRACKS EVEN SLIGHTLY FARTHER INLAND. THE MAIN HAZARDS WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME WOULD BE BETWEEN 6 PM TUESDAY AND 3 AM WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Temp here MAY have hit 28, which is a good bit warmer than what it was progged to do. Looks to me like this thing is pretty much going to split the apps, which doesn't bode well for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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