Weather Czar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Dang shame precip couldn't move in tonight Sure would have been a nice storm if it would have came in Tonight as first modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 @42 looks GFS has heavy deform band close by here again futher se than 18z I think ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm 29 and dropping pretty quickly. The RUC had moisture arriving around 10 am so with some evap. cooling could be a few sleet pellets before the plain rain. The mtns may end up getting more ZR in the morning if the moisture gets in early enough and temps continue to plummet. Or the 33 and rain deal. I usually warm up very quick at my elevation with warm SW flow. Looks like The GFS is gonna bring the deformation band into the midwest at this rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 At 45 on GFS the ULL running down I-40 in NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay, so most of us are not going to see any snow let's pull for those in the NC Mountains , SW VA, East Tenn. Lets get some snow totals thrown around. After a week of watching I think we owe it to ourselves to guess how much we should of had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 FFC has added a chance of Rain/Snow before 4 P.M. on Wednesday to my forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Va. getting clocked @ 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 On another note, 0z GFS looks to have the deform band a tad further south @ 42... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 KTRI Bufkit for 0z NAM... Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN PF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110126/2000Z 44 23007KT 32.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.5|| 1.5 0.091|| 0.34 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 88| 0| 12 110126/2100Z 45 26007KT 32.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 2.8 0.075|| 0.42 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 88| 0| 12 110126/2200Z 46 29008KT 32.7F SNOW 16:1| 1.3|| 4.0 0.079|| 0.50 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 90| 0| 10 110126/2300Z 47 30008KT 32.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 4.2 0.028|| 0.52 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 89| 0| 11 110127/0000Z 48 29009KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 4.2 0.000|| 0.52 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 29.9, here. Probably right on track for a low of 25-26. I bet it gets warmer the higher up in elevation you go. Checking the temp profiles for my area it does get wamer from 850mb to 750mb than it does at 925mb. This is why GSP disco makes no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 KTRI Bufkit... Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SRat|Snow||TotSN PF ||TotQPF Sleet||TotPL FZRA||TotZR S%| I%| L% ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 110126/2000Z 44 23007KT 32.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.5|| 1.5 0.091|| 0.34 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 88| 0| 12 110126/2100Z 45 26007KT 32.9F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 2.8 0.075|| 0.42 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 88| 0| 12 110126/2200Z 46 29008KT 32.7F SNOW 16:1| 1.3|| 4.0 0.079|| 0.50 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 90| 0| 10 110126/2300Z 47 30008KT 32.7F SNOW 5:1| 0.2|| 4.2 0.028|| 0.52 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 89| 0| 11 110127/0000Z 48 29009KT 32.4F 0:1| 0.0|| 4.2 0.000|| 0.52 0.00|| 0.00 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0| 0 I think the GFS just did you one better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 some areas between the coastal plain rain and the western deformation band have gone from 1.75" of rain down to less than .50" in this run. Its obvious I think there's going to be a split of precip max somewhere in the n GA /Carolinas, and my area will probably be dead center. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think the GFS just did you one better. Yes it did. That said, as many other have said, there is really no good way to predict where that band sets up. It will move around I'm sure over the next few runs. Just want to say thanks to everyone that is still posting maps and info even they are likely out of this storm for the most part! I am just east of Nashville and I have to say I am pretty excited to see how this unfolds. We have missed out many times this year and only ended up with a few inches so I would love to see a 4-6" How is central TN looking based on the latest models? I would think your best chance on the 0z GFS is at hour just before hour 36. W/out looking close I can't tell how much precip falls as snow. BTW, there are folks waay more qualified than me to answer that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just want to say thanks to everyone that is still posting maps and info even they are likely out of this storm for the most part! I am just east of Nashville and I have to say I am pretty excited to see how this unfolds. We have missed out many times this year and only ended up with a few inches so I would love to see a 4-6" How is central TN looking based on the latest models? I'm going to update my maps in the morning. Ms, Tn,Ky, Wva, Va should do well. Some areas will probably get over 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 GFS don't give me alot of qpf But .21 of it is snow WED 12Z 26-JAN 0.9 4.8 1009 97 92 0.03 555 547 WED 18Z 26-JAN 2.4 1.4 1004 96 95 0.23 544 541 THU 00Z 27-JAN 0.4 -1.8 1009 93 75 0.21 547 541 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Glenn Burns WSB met saying the models arent pcking up the cold air or something about water vapor and moisutre in the air that causes a curve that causes colder air aloft. He says he has seen it before and could be big toublle. Thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well I never thought I would see the day BUT WSBTV's Glenn Burns just showed his newest run of the RPM model he lives by and it even showed snow wednesday morning from Rome to Canton North. He actually said I disagree with this model I think It could def. be MORE snow. He also said he has seen this situation before and says if this upper level low is as strong as modeled this could mean big trouble so stay tuned! I almost fell out the chair. I have never seen him go against this RPM MODEL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I see a cold rain for GA tomorrow and a colder rain tomorrow night. Take it to the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Glenn Burns WSB met saying the models arent pcking up the cold air or something about water vapor and moisutre in the air that causes a curve that causes colder air aloft. He says he has seen it before and could be big toublle. Thought? Yea he was pointing out the Upper Level Low and its potential it can cause.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyespygawx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Don't think this has been posted. CYA, IMO. But it is a calm heads up to the possibility of wintry weather. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA 835 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011 snip> COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL HOWEVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO LIGHT SNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MORE DETAILS ON THIS EVENT WILL BE CONTAINED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS BY THIS OFFICE AS THE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I see a cold rain for GA tomorrow and a colder rain tomorrow night. Take it to the bank. I am pretty sure no one else is saying anything different assuming the wintry threat would not come until Wednesday Morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow for dylan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yea he was pointing out the Upper Level Low and its potential it can cause.. That excited me he seemed concerned and he never goes out on a limb like that!! Oh MY.... EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 00z gfs was actually a significant trend south from the 18z run. Not quite as impressive as 12z, but the WNC mountains eek out a quick inch or two before the deformation band moves out. Just a tiny shift south and its a much bigger deal. Even more interesting was that the nam is now the northern outlier, with the RGEM and the GFS further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So let me get this straight. Glen Burns thinks his model can pinpoint pop up storms 12 hours ahead of time but disagrees with it on this storm. That might be enough to wake Lookout up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmersonGA Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know Wed morning would be the time Cedric. I was just trying to be funny with Dylan asking the same IMBY question again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Glenn Burns WSB met saying the models arent pcking up the cold air or something about water vapor and moisutre in the air that causes a curve that causes colder air aloft. He says he has seen it before and could be big toublle. Thought? So did our met down here in CLT Brad Panovich singing the same tune apparently on FB. http://www.facebook.com/bradpanovich#!/bradpanovich?sk=wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, I wondered how ffc would come down on this storm for mby. They hit my totals exactly in the last two storms that put measurable frozen down, even seeing the dry slot would steal all my sleet last storm. When I saw Spann's map earlier I figured they go on board with what Ala was seeing. Earlier meteostar gave me .2 with 850's 2 or better so I can see there is a chance, though being in the afternoon, adds problems. Be interesting to see if they put flakes back on my point cast later. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I know Wed morning would be the time Cedric. I was just trying to be funny with Dylan asking the same IMBY question again. Ha I got ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I cant believe Lookout isnt here to talk about Glenn Mother F'n Burns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DT mentioned the 0z RGEM, this is from his facebook: 4-panel: http://www.weatherof...ast/520_100.gif What do you guys think about NC? I-77 looks decent per this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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