Weather Czar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well It was fun while it lasted... and the BUFKIT from the 12z NAM this morning was surely a keeper in the weather weenie model hall of fame. Looks like this storm turned into a double fail for us in western NC. First with the surface low and no cold air and now the upper low with no precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well It was fun while it lasted... and the BUFKIT from the 12z NAM this morning was surely a keeper in the weather weenie model hall of fame. Not many reasons to stay up late tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There is still plenty of time for a trend southward, although it is less likely than a further trend northward, and sva/nc could be back in the snow mix. Let's see the 0z GFS before coming to a full-blown conclusion. Storm is still 48 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ive noticed the same thing this evening and in light of what Robert was suggesting earlier today, Ive been waiting on the NAM to join the party of the Deform band going north. Time to throw the towel in officially for MBY now,. I'll still be interested to see exacttly how all this plays out and what the exact final track will end up. My biggest fear from last night is worrisome, that we in the Carolinas end up getting the ol Carolina split to an extent and our qpf in the western piedmont/foothills is gonna get cut way down. with dry air to overcome first, then deform band going through VA, I'd be suprised to see anyone between the escarpment and 85 end up with more than .40 Thats good rain, but we really had a chance to make up some ground with this one, that could happen and has many many times, its hard to forecast, but the GFS was much wetter than this NAM for sure. I wouldn't place too much stock yet in the NAM qpf but what we get is going to come from tomorrows and tom. nights event, not the def. band I don't think, and there probably will be a split in the 2 precip shields developing. Since Dec 1st, we could all use some rain I think, esp. the central /western parts of the Carolinas. Since Dec 1st GSP 2.85" CLT 2.71" AVL 2.56" RDU 3.22" FAY 2.15" GSO 2.87" AHN 4.22" ATL 3.49" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There is still plenty of time for a trend southward, although it is less likely than a further trend northward, and sva/nc could be back in the snow mix. Let's see the 0z GFS before coming to a full-blown conclusion. Storm is still 48 hours out. Yeah plus the RUC is overdoing all of the models, and it is the most accurate one in the land... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Okay the GFS leads the way for the NAM to be a more NW solution Now lets see if the GFS changes. If it does then the next run of the NAM will change again. As per a personal conversation me and POWERSTROKE had talked about on FRIDAY that every single storm without exception this year has moved NW the closer we got. If this is to verify then we all know without a doubt that there is a bias to start out east and move everything west. So for the next storm you had better see the sucker going off FL. coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Love the NC hole Robert. that could happen and has many many times, its hard to forecast, but the GFS was much wetter than this NAM for sure. I wouldn't place too much stock yet in the NAM qpf but what we get is going to come from tomorrows and tom. nights event, not the def. band I don't think, and there probably will be a split in the 2 precip shields developing. Since Dec 1st, we could all use some rain I think, esp. the central /western parts of the Carolinas. Since Dec 1st GSP 2.85" CLT 2.71" AVL 2.56" RDU 3.22" FAY 2.15" GSO 2.87" AHN 4.22" ATL 3.49" ] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like hours 42-48 it gives me .20 of snow. Your now sitting where Ive been sitting these past couple days. Right on the fringe only needing about a 30 or so mile shift to really get crushed. You and pilot are still in the room for margin error for that deform band. I know ULL are unpredictable, but the current obs with radar tell me this pup is gonna come just a hair to far north for me. Hope you can get a few. Be sure to post us some pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luv2wx4cast Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm here lurking as usual. Sounds like the latest run has it west of here. Hopefully we'll still see snow when the band moves into SE KY and western VA. We have done well with snow this year in the Tri-Cities, but it seems we've been just off the mark when the big snows put down their bullseye. Thanks for the continued coverage all! I live in Springfield TN about 20 miles N of Nashville......trying not to get my hopes up too much and a little concerned about ground temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like this storm turned into a double fail for us in western NC. First with the surface low and no cold air and now the upper low with no precip. Yea... a knew it was a pretty thin line today even after looking at the 12z nam... a little shift north and we would be out of the heavy precip. Unfortunately that looks like what has transpired. Almost similar to how the precip jumped north in the final 24 hours before the Christmas event.... except this time it was not to our advantage. Oh well, there is always next storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I can't believe you guys are giving up, the Euro has been the most consistent model of all and still looks great for part of western NC, NGA, TN. The NAM tends to follow the GFS, I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS trended back a little south of 18z tonight. I just want some rain, I want a deluge. well the SREF has been well north of NAM all along, and to see the NAM come north and join it is something. The Euro looked like it went slightly further nw to me today as well and is closer to the nw, and throw in GGEM and GFS its hard not to see this coming any further south or atleast much further than whats shown on the NAM. The 5H system on all models is progged to be N. Alabama and N GA, except now the NAM is closer to NC/GA border then opens up over piedmont NC before hooking northeast, so you want to be well northwest of that a hunred miles atleast for the good band. Its still possible all models including Euro, SREF and the others switch back but its getting late and would have to be quite a jump south . I wouldn't rule out the mtns esp nw NC mtns getting hit for sure, or anywhere in that vicinity really yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Look at this updated forecast from NWS .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SLEET. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WITH SLEET LIKELY WITH RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Can somebody tell me what in the world they are seeing that gives a chance of sleet/freezing rain ? PLUS temps in the upper 30s with IP/ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 THIS is more like a la nina winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 first post here....from southeast Kentucky..really appreciate everyone's insight...some of our local mets are saying this will start out as rain but quickly change to snow...forecasts are from 6-10 inches..with locally higher amounts closer to VA border.... Glad to have a poster from Kentucky, because I don't think we have many if any at all? Looking forward to your upcoming OBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I cannot answer this question? For it will lead me down a road I rather not go. Look at this updated forecast from NWS .TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 40 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...RAIN AND SLEET. NOT AS COOL WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. RAIN AND SNOW. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW WITH SLEET LIKELY WITH RAIN WITH FREEZING RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Can somebody tell me what in the world they are seeing that gives a chance of sleet/freezing rain ? PLUS temps in the upper 30s with IP/ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 THIS is more like a la nina winter. personally I'm ready for a break from the storms and cold. I had plans this Winter to be doing a lot of outdoor stuff here and that got shredded. Now if we can get one good precip event in here and then a return of the Southeast ridge. ( I know thats not popular!) Unfortunately the big PNA out west is probably really about to exert itself and cold air is coming our way again. For real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It amazing what 24 hours can do to a storm ,If the storm had came in tonight ,the way it was forecasted back on friday,we'd be setting very nice right about now witht the cold still around.We may get thr storm track we needed but I never dreamed the col would be the issue.I look at it this way.We've already received more ,and in some places a lot more,than was forecasted back October and Nov..Winter isn't over and there is still plenty of time for those,and myself included possilby ,to get more snow .The PNA looks to stay positive and i've heard the NOA and the AO are going negative and last but not least the Greenland bock may be coming back.I pray every that wants snow get more and the one that want rain get that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I cannot answer this question? For it will lead me down a road I rather not go. It just blows my mind how they put a forecast out like that, With no models even hinting at below freezing temps for freezing rain ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Once again the RGEM offers hope at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Phil, Can you post the precip type maps from rgem ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It just blows my mind how they put a forecast out like that, With no models even hinting at below freezing temps for freezing rain ? whats your temp now? I'm right at 31 already. Once the clouds come in it will warm up some, but probably won't get out of the 30's tomorrow with rain,so at first there could be some places with ZR but that probably wouldn't last long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 whats your temp now? I'm right at 31 already. Once the clouds come in it will warm up some, but probably won't get out of the 30's tomorrow with rain,so at first there could be some places with ZR but that probably wouldn't last long. 27 They still think I might get in on some snow ? We'll see soon I guess ! But they saying into Wed. Morning ZR EDIT: 26 outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z NAM (between hours 43 and 47) puts down 4.2 inches of snow at KTRI according to Bufkit Cobb Output. Got this site from WeatherNC(hope that is right). Somebody correct me if I'm reading this the wrong way. I haven't used Bufkit much. http://www.meteor.ia...data/index.html My concern has always been the warm air. The qpf appears to be there. However, I'll take my chances being in the northwest quadrant of a strong slp during January. Could be a cold rain. Could manage to get a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Phil, Can you post the precip type maps from rgem ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Heel Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 whats your temp now? I'm right at 31 already. Once the clouds come in it will warm up some, but probably won't get out of the 30's tomorrow with rain,so at first there could be some places with ZR but that probably wouldn't last long. I'm at 24.5 right now. Skies are still clear. Already lower than what NWS forcasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Unless prev hours had snow here, that map shows it just to my north. Thanks, Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 27 They still think I might get in on some snow ? We'll see soon I guess ! But they saying into Wed. Morning ZR EDIT: 26 outside upper levels will warm a little too much for snow, other than token start flakes. I just looked at 2M temps on the NAM and they are cold, but the ZR would be localized and brief, unless in some mtn. valley. Where you and I are should be mid 30's for much of the time and stationary, once the airmass is saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 whats your temp now? I'm right at 31 already. Once the clouds come in it will warm up some, but probably won't get out of the 30's tomorrow with rain,so at first there could be some places with ZR but that probably wouldn't last long. Im down to 25 already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 0z GFS looks almost identical to 18z GFS through 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Im down to 25 already. I'm 29 and dropping pretty quickly. The RUC had moisture arriving around 10 am so with some evap. cooling could be a few sleet pellets before the plain rain. The mtns may end up getting more ZR in the morning if the moisture gets in early enough and temps continue to plummet. Or the 33 and rain deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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