triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah I hope this was a burp, and it reverts back the 18z ways... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where the TENN folks at? Looking good per this run.. Looking good for points north and west of me. Never know though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where the TENN folks at? Looking good per this run.. hopefully sharpening chainsaws and deciding which trees to trim away from the house. I know I would. Going to be a very wet, heavy moisture laden snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Per the 1z RUC, SE Arkansas, and NW Mississippi are getting hammered with snow at hour 18..hmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 this run is legit most likely, it dropped rain amounts here down to between .25 and .50". Huge hole showing up in central and western Carolinas, where we're very dry already this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like the NAM is close to the final nail in the coffin for this area...hopefully we can get more rain then the NAM is painting. Nice little dry gap through the central Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh well, heart crusher for most of NC with this run. Lets see if GFS agrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do you think there is any realistic chance this thing shifts south and puts other areas back in the game? Or do we just have to hope and pray? I doubt it. The 5H never looked to be as far south as the 2009 one, except a couple days ago maybe. Since then, almost all have trended north, well north really. You can never say never as subtle things going on but probably won't be anything of signifcance unless youre under that deformation zone, and thats going to probably be northern Miss, much of Tenn esp. central to eastern , and then southeast KY to VA. It could graze very northern parts of GA, the top row of counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks Foothills....there are a few Tennessee folks on here....based on your latest update, looks like the Tri-Cities might get some decent snow. I just started following this forum last week, so I'm still picking up on the terminology. The deformation band is heavy precip I've picked up on....is that similar to the bow echo talked about during severe thunderstorms, or something entirely different. Again, I really appreciate all the updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hopefully sharpening chainsaws and deciding which trees to trim away from the house. I know I would. Going to be a very wet, heavy moisture laden snow. My fears from earlier today appear to be coming true. I see this going from central TN, into southeast and eastern KY, leaving KTRI largely out of it. Maybe my brothers west of here in middle TN can get their chainsaws sharpened, but not here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From this radar view, it does seem to be inching north more than it is east. http://www.daculaweather.com/ridge_louisiana_master.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where the TENN folks at? Looking good per this run.. I'm here lurking as usual. Sounds like the latest run has it west of here. Hopefully we'll still see snow when the band moves into SE KY and western VA. We have done well with snow this year in the Tri-Cities, but it seems we've been just off the mark when the big snows put down their bullseye. Thanks for the continued coverage all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like the NAM is close to the final nail in the coffin for this area...hopefully we can get more rain then the NAM is painting. Nice little dry gap through the central Carolinas. I hope we don't lose out on a great chance at a good precip event. We've had almost nothing here since December 1st, when the pattern changed. That one day you went to Shelby was it, LOL, and believe it not, it was half that at my place. Hard to believe a couple days ago I was expecting atleast an inch and a half soaker here. But thats how it goes around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 this run is legit most likely, it dropped rain amounts here down to between .25 and .50". Huge hole showing up in central and western Carolinas, where we're very dry already this year. Yea it's almost comical...such is our luck, flood showing up 10 runs in a row then the day before huge hole over us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I doubt it. The 5H never looked to be as far south as the 2009 one, except a couple days ago maybe. Since then, almost all have trended north, well north really. You can never say never as subtle things going on but probably won't be anything of signifcance unless youre under that deformation zone, and thats going to probably be northern Miss, much of Tenn esp. central to eastern , and then southeast KY to VA. It could graze very northern parts of GA, the top row of counties. Alright thanks man. Guess I will look forward to my rain event... Though the NAM reduced my QPF to only .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Deformation band is going to get destroyed by the mountains in North Carolina. I'm not expecting much accumulation for places like Asheville,NC now. Further north stands a better chance of getting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
appsman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 first post here....from southeast Kentucky..really appreciate everyone's insight...some of our local mets are saying this will start out as rain but quickly change to snow...forecasts are from 6-10 inches..with locally higher amounts closer to VA border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks to me like the crappy ol GFS just schooled the NAM. NAM shows pretty much what 18z GFS did. The ol Goofus might suck, but not as bad as the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Brandon or Robert: It appears to me that we have decent damming at hr 30? Of course, I am not looking at soundings and the whole cha-bang. Just looking at the position of the weak high and the typical look of the isobars. It would be interesting to know what bulkit reads for that time frame. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_030l.gif On a more somber note...WTH happened to all our precip. Sheesh...we could use the rain if anything, ESPECIALLY over towards Foothills area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 first post here....from southeast Kentucky..really appreciate everyone's insight...some of our local mets are saying this will start out as rain but quickly change to snow...forecasts are from 6-10 inches..with locally higher amounts closer to VA border.... Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 first post here....from southeast Kentucky..really appreciate everyone's insight...some of our local mets are saying this will start out as rain but quickly change to snow...forecasts are from 6-10 inches..with locally higher amounts closer to VA border.... Your local mets are on top of this, an aggressive forecast, but a good accumulating snow is pretty likely for you guys. BTW - welcome to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This run of the NAM everything lines up picture perfect to nail DC, Philly New Jersey, NYC and up to Boston. The 5H closes again and the deformation band strengthens, really drops a load of snow in a hurry on all them. These rates per hour may surpass the rates of the storms last year, for a few hours, with how thats neg. tilt and great dynamics, if the NAM is right. Its going to be such a wet snow with huge flakes, the air in between the flakes really cake up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Welcome!! Look forward to your obs when it is pouring the snow we have been chasing since last week first post here....from southeast Kentucky..really appreciate everyone's insight...some of our local mets are saying this will start out as rain but quickly change to snow...forecasts are from 6-10 inches..with locally higher amounts closer to VA border.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well It was fun while it lasted... and the BUFKIT from the 12z NAM this morning was surely a keeper in the weather weenie model hall of fame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 From this radar view, it does seem to be inching north more than it is east. http://www.daculawea...iana_master.php Ive noticed the same thing this evening and in light of what Robert was suggesting earlier today, Ive been waiting on the NAM to join the party of the Deform band going north. Time to throw the towel in officially for MBY now,. I'll still be interested to see exacttly how all this plays out and what the exact final track will end up. My biggest fear from last night is worrisome, that we in the Carolinas end up getting the ol Carolina split to an extent and our qpf in the western piedmont/foothills is gonna get cut way down. with dry air to overcome first, then deform band going through VA, I'd be suprised to see anyone between the escarpment and 85 end up with more than .40 Thats good rain, but we really had a chance to make up some ground with this one, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Looks like hours 42-48 it gives me .20 of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well if Im gonna have rain, at least Im not gonna have much. Boy does this suck.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Brandon or Robert: It appears to me that we have decent damming at hr 30? Of course, I am not looking at soundings and the whole cha-bang. Just looking at the position of the weak high and the typical look of the isobars. It would be interesting to know what bulkit reads for that time frame. http://www.nco.ncep....am_pcp_030l.gif On a more somber note...WTH happened to all our precip. Sheesh...we could use the rain if anything, ESPECIALLY over towards Foothills area. well theres only 1 isobar bending here, so that should tell you it's not much of a high. Really its not any damming except in-situ , its just showing the separation of the low on the coast and the inverted trough west of the Apps, really neutral pressure pattern here in the Carolinas middle area. Its a cold rain though. Assuming we get much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 hopefully sharpening chainsaws and deciding which trees to trim away from the house. I know I would. Going to be a very wet, heavy moisture laden snow. If this isn't enough info for the Tenn gang (the ones bee-otching all the time) then I do not know what is. Just sayin... MUCH LOVE for the Tenn gang. I am rooting for ya..just like I do for anyonein the SE. You all pray that we can get some good rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I can't believe you guys are giving up, the Euro has been the most consistent model of all and still looks great for part of western NC, NGA, TN. The NAM tends to follow the GFS, I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS trended back a little south of 18z tonight. I just want some rain, I want a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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