FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That don't sound good for NC snow lovers ! if anyone in NC gets it , you will. But Tennessee is honestly looking pretty good and probably western to central VA, unless theres a pretty big shift soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now I'm starting to look at the RUC and compare its later frames with the NAM and GFS progs. So far it looks like the NAM is too far south, if the RUC is going to be right, but that may be premature. Also the SREF last I looked was way north and west of the NAM and closer to 12z GFS, so I'm guessing the NAM will make a substantial nw trend in everything. By the way tomorrow looks like a great old fashioned cloudy, rainy day. We haven't had one of those here in forever. That actually sounds nice, though I prefer the summer variety. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Nerd Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just waiting on the 00z run, we've speculated about as much as we can. I have been a lurker for about a week now and I absolutely love reading all that everyone has to contribute. Am learning so much when it comes to snow and the lack of snow for my area. The Bermuda Snow Triangle map explains it all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now I'm starting to look at the RUC and compare its later frames with the NAM and GFS progs. So far it looks like the NAM is too far south, if the RUC is going to be right, but that may be premature. Also the SREF last I looked was way north and west of the NAM and closer to 12z GFS, so I'm guessing the NAM will make a substantial nw trend in everything. By the way tomorrow looks like a great old fashioned cloudy, rainy day. We haven't had one of those here in forever. The NAM isn't far off from the EC--which gives me hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Isn't the current precipitation shield about 6 hours ahead of what the 18z NAM shows for the approximate current time frame? I swear it seems like every storm this year, the precip is 6 hours in front of the Nam. Not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now I'm starting to look at the RUC and compare its later frames with the NAM and GFS progs. So far it looks like the NAM is too far south, if the RUC is going to be right, but that may be premature. Also the SREF last I looked was way north and west of the NAM and closer to 12z GFS, so I'm guessing the NAM will make a substantial nw trend in everything. By the way tomorrow looks like a great old fashioned cloudy, rainy day. We haven't had one of those here in forever. We had one a few weeks ago...don't like the winter, cloudy, cold, rainy days...but will take the summer ones, not a problem. About this storm...where would I find the RUC at? How often is it run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We had one a few weeks ago...don't like the winter, cloudy, cold, rainy days...but will take the summer ones, not a problem. About this storm...where would I find the RUC at? How often is it run? http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ scroll down, runs hourly..Rapid Updating C (cycle?) I forget Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We had one a few weeks ago...don't like the winter, cloudy, cold, rainy days...but will take the summer ones, not a problem. About this storm...where would I find the RUC at? How often is it run? where I'm at we could use all the rain we could get. Here's the link for RUC its run every hour, goes out to 18 hours. Its very good for short term forecasting. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 where I'm at we could use all the rain we could get. Here's the link for RUC its run every hour, goes out to 18 hours. Its very good for short term forecasting. http://www.nco.ncep....wprod/analysis/ Thank you Oconee and Foothills...I appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 So far not seeing any HUGE differences in the 18z & 0z. Maybe slightly warmer, which of course is not good, but nothing huge that sticks out so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I swear it seems like every storm this year, the precip is 6 hours in front of the Nam. Not sure why. I've actually seen this for years with the NAM...always seems to start the precip too late, then it catches up as you get closer to go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Through 24 hours it still hasn't closed off. There's a good bit of convection in the central Gulf. I also noticed 2 very separated low centers on the RUC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Deformation band setting up @27 in Tennessee, I hope it makes it over this way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Actually, take that back, a 21 & 24, looks slightly colder now. Precip setting up slightly further north at 24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Closing off at 27? Asking in all seriousness. which heights do you look at for the closing? 850s have assumed a closed off feature, but not sure if that is the proper height to be watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 @ 30 it's looks like some damming with weak hp in the ne ? But remember I don't know much. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Really don't know what to think @33, maybe in some later frames we can get another deformation band in NC.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 There is a nice def. band in n. Miss, and the western half of Tenn between 24 and 30 hours. Still not closed off. Well at 33 hours it finally does over NW Alabama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 WOW FFC Finally woke up! weather.gov National Weather Service Watches, Warnings & AdvisoriesLocal weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code One product issued by NWS for: 2 Miles W Dalton GA Hazardous Weather Outlook HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA835 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-089>098-102>113-260145-BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-WILKINSON-835 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA..DAY ONE...TONIGHTTHERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH THE DEVELOPINGRAIN AT ONSET LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS WITH NOACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW EXPECTED..SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATETONIGHT AND PUSH NORTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAKTUESDAY..PRIMARY HAZARDS...AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...LIGHT SNOW MAY MIX BRIEFLYWITH THE RAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTEDBUT WITH LOWS AROUND FREEZING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...A FEWROADS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS..DISCUSSION...MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMWILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THISMOISTURE COMBINED WITH RESIDUAL COLD AIR IN PLACE COULD ALLOW FORA BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW MIXING WITH THE RAIN..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAYTHE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WITHINCREASING RAIN CHANCES AREA WIDE. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMESALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO DUBLIN LINE WITH THUNDERSTORMSPOSSIBLE BY TUESDAY EVENING. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKESWILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THELOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFULHOWEVER AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM SWINGS THROUGH. THIS WILLALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF RAIN MIXING WITH AND THEN CHANGING TO LIGHTSNOW BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE BEST CHANCES FORACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECASTAREA...ESPECIALLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MORE DETAILS ON THISEVENT WILL BE CONTAINED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS BY THIS OFFICE ASTHE EVENT DRAWS CLOSER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Definitely colder at 33, at least to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The 850 low is in northern GA at 36 hours, and its probably snowing to beat the band in far NW GA and much of central TN, north Al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Another heavy band setting up in Tennessee @39.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Another heavy band setting up in Tennessee @39.. West and central Tenn getting crushed...will be watching some traffic cams for sure wed. morning/afternoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well Robert was right, the heaviest is North and West of where is was at 18z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Overall so far the NAM is slightly further north with the 5H low and opens it as it crosses into southern NC, western SC at 42 hours, and it also has -4 pocket over northwest GA and SE TN at that time. The heavy def. band is heading from Tn. into southeast Ky and western VA at 45 hours, so its joining others in a more north and nw jog, as I suspected . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We had one a few weeks ago...don't like the winter, cloudy, cold, rainy days...but will take the summer ones, not a problem. About this storm...where would I find the RUC at? How often is it run? I use Twisterdata Link but You can use Foothills and Oconee's link also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 South of Nashville west towards Jackson looks to get drilled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 NAM definitely didn't want to share any snowy love with NC...5 straight runs with snowy love, then nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 the way things are positioned would leave most of NC out of good precip, esp. east of the mtns. With downslope and the def. band center going over ne Tn and western VA and the surface low position and the 5H low so far north, it would leave very little hope east of the apps along 40 and points south. Maybe nw NC and part of the state near VA border. Otherwise good hit deeper into the Apps and in much of Tenn and eastern Ky and VA. And that band goes directly over DC and Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Where the TENN folks at? Looking good per this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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