keithinala Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Funny how no one is even talking about Nashville getting possibly slammed and post right East. Every time something happens to go our way, I hear some negative remark. So other than the few that include us in their thoughts and forecasts, remember that Tennessee is on the map too here. Agree...and north Ala, heck, even Mississippi should be discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Man, I am so over this storm, LOL. I can't wait for it to come and go so we can move on. Is that bad? I don't mean to take away from the AL/TN/VA /NC MTN folks who are going to get some wet flakes, but the more I read about this the more I'm reminded of the fail for the piedmont. Well, congrats....hope somebody gets dumped on. Just so we can verify that Foothills knows his stuff!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Funny how no one is even talking about Nashville getting possibly slammed and post right East. Every time something happens to go our way, I hear some negative remark. So other than the few that include us in their thoughts and forecasts, remember that Tennessee is on the map too here. Main reason is because most people feel comfortable forecasting for their area. ie. you know the climo and micro climates of your own area. Nothing is stopping you from talking about your area. This board tends to be heavy on the Carolina crowd mainly because lots of good posters and mets hail from that area. GA gets talked about because we also have some good posters and quite a few mets from the North GA area. Less posters and mets from areas like KY, AL, MS, and TN are the reason they are talked about less. As for Nashville getting plastered I'm not sure where you see that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 HPC's storm forecast track. Does this map verify with you all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 WOW, The 18z GFS has really toned things down in here, It was a dagger right in the heart of snow lovers in western and central NC. Is it correct though? May be, can't discount it this close to game time..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That map would work better for our area than the more northerly tracks. Nashville is thinking more and more like it's gonna happen there MODELS HAVE TRENDED COLDER LAST COUPLE OF RUNS. MY CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT ACROSS THE MID STATE/PLATEAU. HAVE ISSUED SPS ADDRESSINGTHIS EVENT SO WILL NOT REPEAT CONTENTS HERE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES REMAIN SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION BUT THEY HAVE TRENDED COLDER. WITH DEFORMATION FIELD SETTING UP OVER AREA PER GFS AND CRAS...ALONG WITH DYNAMICAL COOLING MY CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED BUT NOT ENOUGH TO GO WITH A LATE 3RD PERIOD WINTER STORM WATCH AS AMOUNTS STILL QUESTIONABLE. ALSO WITH UPPER LOW PASSING SO CLOSE TO CWA COULD ALSO GET CONVECTION AND THUNDER SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That map would work better for our area than the more northerly tracks. Nashville is thinking more and more like it's gonna happen there for sure, as you stated earlier it will be a radar and nowcast situation1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tngirl Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Totally agree with you!!! What do you think in regards to accumulation for the Nashville area?? Funny how no one is even talking about Nashville getting possibly slammed and post right East. Every time something happens to go our way, I hear some negative remark. So other than the few that include us in their thoughts and forecasts, remember that Tennessee is on the map too here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tngirl Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN203 PM CST MON JAN 24 2011...ACCUMULATING SNOWS LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVEINTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT...SPREADING PRECIPITATIONNORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PRECIPITATION WILL COMMENCELATE TONIGHT IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT RAIN MIXINGWITH LIGHT SNOW...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN AREAS AND CONTINUE INTOEARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION WILL THEN TRANSITIONINTO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING ON TUESDAY...BUT SWITCH BACK TO ARAIN AND SNOW MIX TUESDAY EVENING.ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY.SNOW WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY FROM THEWEST AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEASTWARD UP THE EAST COAST.NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVERAN ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IS LIKELY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER INCH POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREASAND PLATEAU. HEAVIER SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...OF 4 INCHES OR MORE...ARENOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH THIS EVENT.SO FAR THIS SEASON WE HAVE HAD FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE ON OUR SNOWEVENT FORECASTS...BUT WEATHER PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED...AND CONFIDENCEIS NOT AS HIGH FOR THIS EVENT IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.NEVERTHELESS...RECENT COMPUTER MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME MORE INAGREEMENT...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCEIN SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL IMPROVE.SO FAR THIS WINTER SEASON NASHVILLE HAS HAD FOUR SNOW EVENTS WITHA TOTAL OF 9.3 INCHES OF SNOW. THIS HAS BEEN THE SNOWIEST WINTERSINCE 15.1 INCHES FELL DURING THE WINTER SEASON OF 2002 AND 2003.THE SNOWIEST WINTER ON RECORD WAS BACK IN 1959 AND 1960 WHEN 38.5INCHES OF SNOW FELL.Source: http://www.srh.noaa....=63090&source=0 So any chance of TN seeing thunder snow?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What do you think in regards to accumulation for the Nashville area?? Hi tngirl, I'm fairly new here myself, but something I've learned quickly is that MBY posts (My Back Yard) are frowned upon in the storm thread. They are welcomed with open arms in the banter thread, however...or at least moreso than here. The reasoning being that if everyone posts a MBY question in the storm thread, then nothing else will get through. While I agree with you in part on the lack of Tennessee information at times, there are several good posters here from TN (tnweathernut and Carver's Gap come to mind) that give information pertaining to TN. Also several of the NC mets are kind enough to include a broad overview in their forecasts. Until we get more tagged mets from TN, it's the best we've got. Welcome to the forum! I hope you find it's a great place to visit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichaelJ Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 If you go to talkweather, it is almost exclusively Ala., Miss. and Tenn. but nobody here should be upset if you guys get nailed and we don't in NC, SC, Ga, and Va. Good luck to where ever this thing ends up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Main reason is because most people feel comfortable forecasting for their area. ie. you know the climo and micro climates of your own area. Nothing is stopping you from talking about your area. This board tends to be heavy on the Carolina crowd mainly because lots of good posters and mets hail from that area. GA gets talked about because we also have some good posters and quite a few mets from the North GA area. Less posters and mets from areas like KY, AL, MS, and TN are the reason they are talked about less. As for Nashville getting plastered I'm not sure where you see that at all. The bolded text is the key point here. I've already said I feel like the best chance for getting a good dump out of this will be a little north and south along a line from N MS through C TN to SW VA - haven't really looked at it NE from there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Before we all run off a cliff because of the 18z gfs... let me post the 18z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Had sleet, snow and rain in New Bern this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Before we all run off a cliff because of the 18z gfs... let me post the 18z RGEM Seems ideal for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rankin5150 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I had to go to Greenville (sw of Greenville) SC early this morning and was in snow from Kings Mountain, past Shelby (flurries there-thought of you Foothills and how we get screwed...LOL) and when I got to Greenville area (Easely) it was putting I down nicely. Nice dusting! sorry for OT, but I do not think anyone was forecasting that to happen? Curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I was poking around the NWS site and saw this snow forecast. You would think there was some big wall that just stops the snow at the Alabama/Georgia line. It must be based on their actual forecasted snowfall amounts, FFC isn't forecasting any I guess! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I was poking around the NWS site and saw this snow forecast. You would think there was some big wall that just stops the snow at the Alabama/Georgia line. It must be based on their actual forecasted snowfall amounts, FFC isn't forecasting any I guess! You got it! There is a magical wall on the AL/GA border....Snow stops here everytime Seriously...living on the border can give one a complex. Those offices never seem to cordinate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Before we all run off a cliff because of the 18z gfs... let me post the 18z RGEM Didn't the RGEM show an Apps Runner at 12z? I was thinking it did, but that would have been a massive shift if it did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I85Greenville Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I had to go to Greenville (sw of Greenville) SC early this morning and was in snow from Kings Mountain, past Shelby (flurries there-thought of you Foothills and how we get screwed...LOL) and when I got to Greenville area (Easely) it was putting I down nicely. Nice dusting! sorry for OT, but I do not think anyone was forecasting that to happen? Curious... We had a pretty nice period of light snow early this morning here. It left a light dusting for me. It was a nice surprise as it certainly was not forecast here. I grabbed a couple of pictures as it mainly stuck to my car and the grassy areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I see Absolute on here Observing, maybe he can give a little insight into the forecast thoughts from FFC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just waiting on the 00z run, we've speculated about as much as we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Most of the board population is out of the running, places like Raleigh, the Upstate, pretty much all of GA except the far northern tier all are looking at mostly to all rain. Rooting you guys to get something though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's either watch the radar or wait on a model. I'm tired of watching the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Isn't the current precipitation shield about 6 hours ahead of what the 18z NAM shows for the approximate current time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just waiting on the 00z run, we've speculated about as much as we can. Now I'm starting to look at the RUC and compare its later frames with the NAM and GFS progs. So far it looks like the NAM is too far south, if the RUC is going to be right, but that may be premature. Also the SREF last I looked was way north and west of the NAM and closer to 12z GFS, so I'm guessing the NAM will make a substantial nw trend in everything. By the way tomorrow looks like a great old fashioned cloudy, rainy day. We haven't had one of those here in forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'll wait til the 0z runs to stick a fork in my snow chances. But I'm still holding out hope for a shift south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 isn't it true that the GFS isn't much good this close to the event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Now I'm starting to look at the RUC and compare its later frames with the NAM and GFS progs. So far it looks like the NAM is too far south, if the RUC is going to be right, but that may be premature. Also the SREF last I looked was way north and west of the NAM and closer to 12z GFS, so I'm guessing the NAM will make a substantial nw trend in everything. By the way tomorrow looks like a great old fashioned cloudy, rainy day. We haven't had one of those here in forever. That don't sound good for NC snow lovers ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 isn't it true that the GFS isn't much good this close to the event? thats not neccessarily true. I put a bunch of 48 hour progs from the March 2009 event on the other thread (Call maps) just to show how the models all did with that one. Turns out the GFS and Euro and esp. the RGEM nailed the deformation band from 48 hours out. Back then the NGM was around and all the models did well for the most part there was good clustering on that one though. Too bad we're this close still and not real good clustering yet, but I bet that changes this run. The NAM was most off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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