gritsnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 While the precip. map didn't look that much different, the nam had some major changes, mainly to speed up the system about 6 hours compared to 12z. It also shifted the 500mb low a little further north, thus the really heavy precipitation doesn't start till we are further north in the foothills of NC. The WNC mountains do get some decent precipitation, but nowhere near the amounts further north and east. The new NC bullseye according to the NAM is Greensboro, where Bufkit says that could get up to 9" of snow. Basically... like Robert said, there will be a location that could get upwards of 6" of snowfall... but where is the big question, and the models have not completely converged on a solution that would allow us to give a specific location. I'll update my blog later tonight to try to give a better idea on who has the best chance to get under the heaviest deformation band. OMG I would LOVE it if G-boro was the bullseye considering I'm only abou5 6 miles west of G-boro. I wish I never found this forum. I'm not getting anything accomplished here at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 @39 the ULL is crossing into KY I have mentioned this a couple of times, and it wasn't just a gut feeling, but the trends with these ULL's from 48+ hours out is usually north and west as you get closer to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 NW Trend Might want to temper those snow expectations and winter storm watches for AL folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 45 the center of the ULL is running over the NC Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yeah, but this run might take alot of western NC and east TN out of it for snow, the ULL is more NW. looks like snow totals (and coverage) is way down (i guess 'way' could be a relative statement lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 ULL is way north west this run almost in NE KY @42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 ULL is way north west this run almost in NE KY @42 Much broader ULL. Not as compact. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_042l.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherman566 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 What really bothers me about FFC's AFD is that they mentioned that overall forecast confidence is Medium to High. How can you have a high confidence forecast when a ULL is approaching you? Also,they mentioned that the surface would be too warm for snow to accumulate. I disagree with that. Also, read James Spann's thoughts on the storm at www.alabamawx.com I know every forecaster has different forecasts/thoughts, but dang, these are DRASTIC. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thundersnow in Spartanburg on the 18z NAM: http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kspa.txt Had thunder-snow in the early 80's when I lived in Toccoa, awesome event! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we see snow. But I am not willing to guess how much because the models are still all over the place. It might end up being how much not if we get snow. Sometimes it good to be this far NW in the OLD NORTH STATE . No, I know it's rain or snow thing..... I just don't understand them sometimes, Heck I can put out a forecast like that cover ever precip type and bound to be right. lol NO model shows sleet or freezing rain, But I guess anything is possible. BTW- What's your thoughts ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS looking really good for a deformation band @42.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Much broader ULL. Not as compact. http://www.nco.ncep....fs_500_042l.gif Ah I see, just looking at qpf maps and guessing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 CLT could still switch over to some wet flakes at the end but I aint holding my breath per the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Congrats ky and even southern ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep the GFS is further north and west, so the heavest deformation band precipitation is in Kentucky and Virgina. That does not bode to well for us folks in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheBlade Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yea QPF definitely down on the wrap around this run, not making it look any better for CLT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherheels Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So the NAM and the GFS differ a couple hundred miles on who is going to benefit from the deform band, which model is correct? Gotta hope the GFS continues to struggle, but will probably end up being correct and dumping on DC, Philly and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Yep the GFS is further north and west, so the heavest deformation band precipitation is in Kentucky and Virgina. That does not bode to well for us folks in NC. Well the good news is it destroys NYC and BOS ...... again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nice. Then the GFS states, have some cold rain folks..lol Models continue to have issue with the track.. Thundersnow in Spartanburg on the 18z NAM: http://68.226.77.253...FC/NAM_kspa.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z GFS gives ole Frosty .08 qpf in the form of snow (maybe) lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At this point you're probably better off watching the radar than the models, they just can't seem to get this figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would really like the NAM to verify, a lot of people would.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think we see snow. But I am not willing to guess how much because the models are still all over the place. It might end up being how much not if we get snow. Sometimes it good to be this far NW in the OLD NORTH STATE . I might have spoken to soon!! I am going with the NAM and I am not going to lie it's because it shows me getting snow! Honestly the GFS could be as right as the NAM. All except the EURO have been all over the place. At this point the NAM and GFS might flip positions next run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would really like the NAM to verify, a lot of people would.. I'd rather have it just be sunny and 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I might have spoken to soon!! I am going with the NAM and I am not going to lie it's because it shows me getting snow! Honestly the GFS could be as right as the NAM. All except the EURO have been all over the place. At this point the NAM and GFS might flip positions next run! I told Frosty the same thing. Just don't make sense this late in the game to change track like it just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 … Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
polarexpress00 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Sorry not a computer expert. James Spann's map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z HIRES NMM that was referenced is noticeably colder at 850mb in the NC mtns, on Wed at 7AM, compared to 12z NAM / GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 … Hands down the weirdest call map I've ever seen. EDIT: My bad, just noticed I thought I was in the banter thread. For future reference to all: Post any call maps in the call map thread and list source, or in the banter thread. This is for disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Can we take a quick step back and address the data ingest / weather balloon issue from yesterday? Wasn't this issue supposed to be resolved by the late Mon / early Tues model runs? And if so, didn't many of you say that the GFS / Nam solutions were pretty much bogus in the meantime? Sorry, trying to play catch up on this one and I'm speed reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.