oconeexman Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Would be a doozy if we had the cold air to support! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am absolutely stumped as to why the GFS soundings are so cold here. I dont think it's dynamically driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Yep. We'll continue to see that too, esp. in the NAM I think as it tries to see dynamic cooling. If you notice , the spread between 850 contours is large over a geographic region, indicative of not a lot of WAA at 850, and with the lack of anything much above zero at 850, then it won't be that hard to bring flakes to the surface. All that will be needed is good lift , and of course elevation really helps...as does time of day. Anyway, I think this run didn't fully absorb the vort coming into the Midwest, so its not that strong of a cutoff, but does still cutoff. Thats going to be a big player. As it stands now though, this animation shows how a good it could be for areas just to its north and west, generally in a line from northern Ala to central NC, as that is the period that everything is going to be maximized to the fullest for the snow potential of this, when the air is coldest, the lift is greatest, the 7H moisture and deformation band is working its hardest. All that basically still points to n. Ala, Ga, eTN, w NC and maybe w SC but downslope here may hurt in the Upstate and in the western Piedmont of NC, not to mention a terrible time of day for it's arrival. I think the Mtns still look good though for the best chance. I would be digging out for a week if we had a damn parent high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I am absolutely stumped as to why the GFS soundings are so cold here. I dont think it's dynamically driven. Wouldn't it be ironic given how everything has gone so far this winter...if the GFS ends up winning out with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So the amped up JMA/Euro/GGME/UK are handling that kicker SW much different than the American models. I would assume we should lean towards the non-american models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Wouldn't it be ironic given how everything has gone so far this winter...if the GFS ends up winning out with this storm. Watch your mouth! HAHA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 So the amped up JMA/Euro/GGME/UK are handling that kicker SW much different than the American models. I would assume we should lean towards the non-american models. JMHO...since we're inside of 3 days on this event, I am generally going to lean away from the global models (Euro, UK, Canadian) and focus my time with the GFS or NAM. Then inside of 36 hours you can begin to look at the mesoscale models to see how they stack up with what's actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2011 Author Share Posted January 23, 2011 As a matter of fact, this aint too far from a heavy wet snow sounding for KCLT: Very interesting, I'll believe it when I see it but the lack of data on the 18z run kind of keeps my hopes at bay especially for this area, on the other hand it might have trended more our way if those balloons would have gotten the data it needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
triadwx Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Very interesting, I'll believe it when I see it but the lack of data on the 18z run kind of keeps my hopes at bay especially for this area, on the other hand it might have trended more our way if those balloons would have gotten the data it needed. Thats about the only thing keeping my hopes alive, but the GFS wasn't that bad for some wet snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 And two of the areas with no data are Atlanta and Birmingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 JMHO...since we're inside of 3 days on this event, I am generally going to lean away from the global models (Euro, UK, Canadian) and focus my time with the GFS or NAM. Then inside of 36 hours you can begin to look at the mesoscale models to see how they stack up with what's actually happening. Generally, I would agree w/ in 48 hrs to go w/ the NAM and then RUC. However, the NAM and GFS have been all over the place for the past two days. The Euro has been pretty steady w/ its track as well as the Ukie. The Canadian has been errant several times w/ the precip shield extending too far north or too enhanced in TN. But still, you could be right. If you stick w/ the GFS right now(w/ the number of solutions it's producing), you'll be correct at some point. Please know I am teasing. I have no idea right now. I, personally, am pulling for the Euro - but who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bingcrosbyb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 High Res WRF is out to 48HR. Notice the 850 line riding just above the I-20 corridor. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_ref_048m.gif http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/hiresw/12/images/hiresw_850_048m.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Based upon the spread in the model guidence. This isn't over by any means for WNC/ETN and folks in WSC and NGA should remain on guard. The trends from the UKMET, GGEM and the ECWMF weren't good for WNC but considering the amount of variance with this pattern... I'm still expecting major changes over the next 24 hours before we fiinally have a solution we can trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 pretty much given up hope here in ETN(TYS). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 pretty much given up hope here in ETN(TYS). Still very much in this IMO. Could it turn out to be nothing? Absolutely. Part of the hobby. This model was a warm today for sure. But, when you see a low pressure of that intensity...nobody is out of it - yet. Morristown's(NWS) comments this afternoon basically state similar sentiments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 The models are still all over the place. People can say it's going to be nothing but rain, or that it's going to be all snow. It's a guess right now. No one can tell what this thing will do until it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 latest SREF at 72 looks a little north on that RH coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 Just looking at the bufkit soundings, the gfs is definintely too warm at HKY for snow, but looking at the NAM, it's hard to guage b/c it only drops .1 qpf which is probably unrealistic. I'm thinking, though, it would be closer than the gfs if we were receiving some heavier precip.The boone sounding looks like mostly snow on the gfs after about .3 of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 latest SREF at 72 looks a little north on that RH coming through. Looks like a nice presentation for east TN Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I saw two of the local media outlets put out a map for Western Carolinas...I guess they wanted to take a first stab at it. Karen Wynne (WLOS) had 2-4 inches along I-40 and 4-6 north of Asheville. WYFF had 1-6 for all of WNC. Andy Wood (FOX Carolina) just posted on their blog that he is putting together some maps for a video that will be on their website around 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 23, 2011 Share Posted January 23, 2011 I saw two of the local media outlets put out a map for Western Carolinas...I guess they wanted to take a first stab at it. Karen Wynne (WLOS) had 2-4 inches along I-40 and 4-6 north of Asheville. WYFF had 1-6 for all of WNC. Andy Wood (FOX Carolina) just posted on their blog that he is putting together some maps for a video that will be on their website around 7 pm. Don't know how you feel Marion but, imho there is only one Station that I would look to in our media market. Andy & the Ladies at Fox Carolina are head & shoulders above the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Don't know how you feel Marion but, imho there is only one Station that I would look to in our media market. Andy & the Ladies at Fox Carolina are head & shoulders above the rest. I agree especially on the weekends...13 would be better off not even broadcasting Saturday and Sunday. There was a time (not all that long ago) in which I wouldn't make that comment but seems like now our market, in general, really suffers on the weekend shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would not put any weight in the 12 and 18z NCEP models guys given the RAOB issues mentioned earlier. Without a further update from the 12z NAM message, there is no indication balloons were launched at 18z to plug the gaps, and an update as far as the 12z GFS. Normally with 4-5 missed stations I would not be concerned, as that happens quite often, but with FFC and BMX out and short to 472mb respectively, that has large implications imo given the energy in question should pass almost overhead of those two stations. If one is insistent on incorporating today's NCEP runs into a forecast, us the 12z GFS ens mean, but even that is not preferred given suspect ingest although it should help to smooth the differences. I have stated several times in the past that when I see extreme solutions 5 days out, the mean usually has a better chance of verifying than the extreme solution seen on the operational. Once we get inside 72hrs and extreme solutions are continuing to be shown, than one has to consider based on what all the deterministic and ensemble guidance is showing. If I had to make a forecast based on everything up until this point, it would be weighted heavily on the 0z op ECWMF blended with its ens mean to smooth things over. What caught me with the NCEP runs today was the lack of a sig close-off at 500mb, very dissimilar than the GGEM, ECMWF, and UKMET, but we do not know how accurate there 12z runs were with the missing said stations ingest data. As far as the Euro loosing a solution it was locked in on 4-5 days out, only to bring it back within 48hrs, I have noticed that also. In talking to one of our Chief's here in the east, the only thing we can come up with is good ingest upstream, maybe over Russia in the 5-7 day, coupled with a gap over the northern Pac and Canada, and back on once it gets into the US network. Not sure how accurate this is but we have seen several examples of it this winter, Christmas storm and the OBX dumping yesterday are two. How is this going to unfold; I don't know, but does anybody? In order to get SN outside of the mountains, and even there could be in doubt given a GGEM or UKMET track, we need a sig wrap up at H5, and quick! A closed >540dm low is not going to cut it, and that throws caution with areas further south such as GA or SC, excluding the far N or W portions of those states respectively. Around here, and in that referring to the area from GSO towards RWI and back to RDU, maybe even down towards Florence, we want a solution similar to the Euro, but just a few DM deeper at 500mb. 538'ish entering NC west of Lumberton, and < 534 exiting around Elizabeth City would support a changeover in the wake as cooling is realized at the surface. But 545'ish as the GFS and NAM showed, and let alone an open wave will not cut it. I found this interesting from MHX this afternoon, as they are a very conservative office, but am sure they are taking the 0 and 12z EC as there is some wiggle room even here given what is passing overhead. And for anyone banking on surface temps in modeled output as shown, one has to look no further than the Crystal Coast of NC yesterday as all the guidance was around 5F to warm at the surface for the duration of their event, which verified in the mid and upper 20's. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...AS OF 330 PM SUNDAY...THE COASTAL FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH WILL STALL ALONG THE COASTLINE TUESDAY AND WILL BE A FOCUS POINT FOR ENHANCED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AHEAD OF THE LARGER SCALE LOW ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPARENT BETWEEN THE SLOWER/WEAKER NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS AND FASTER/DEEPER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE LOW WEDNESDAY. WENT WITH A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST AND ECMWF/GFS FOR THE LONG TERM GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR CONSISTENCY AND UNCERTAINTY AMONG MODELS. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH 1.50 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT AS THE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...THAT THERMAL PROFILES MAY BE CONDUCIVE FOR A CHANGE IN PRECIP TYPE TO RAIN/SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW FOR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS...LOWS IN THE MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 50S. Best educated guess on track is 1008 from Pensacola to 995 over or just east of Hatteras, H5 closes off and starts to deepen around Macon and offshore around Norfolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAWGNKITTEN Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would not put any weight in the 12 and 18z NCEP models guys given the RAOB issues mentioned earlier. Without a further update from the 12z NAM message, there is no indication balloons were launched at 18z to plug the gaps, and an update as far as the 12z GFS. Normally with 4-5 missed stations I would not be concerned, as that happens quite often, but with FFC and BMX out and short to 472mb respectively, that has large implications imo given the energy in question should pass almost overhead of those two stations. If one is insistent on incorporating today's NCEP runs into a forecast, us the 12z GFS ens mean, but even that is not preferred given suspect ingest although it should help to smooth the differences. I have stated several times in the past that when I see extreme solutions 5 days out, the mean usually has a better chance of verifying than the extreme solution seen on the operational. Once we get inside 72hrs and extreme solutions are continuing to be shown, than one has to consider based on what all the deterministic and ensemble guidance is showing. If I had to make a forecast based on everything up until this point, it would be weighted heavily on the 0z op ECWMF blended with its ens mean to smooth things over. What caught me with the NCEP runs today was the lack of a sig close-off at 500mb, very dissimilar than the GGEM, ECMWF, and UKMET, but we do not know how accurate there 12z runs were with the missing said stations ingest data. As far as the Euro loosing a solution it was locked in on 4-5 days out, only to bring it back within 48hrs, I have noticed that also. In talking to one of our Chief's here in the east, the only thing we can come up with is good ingest upstream, maybe over Russia in the 5-7 day, coupled with a gap over the northern Pac and Canada, and back on once it gets into the US network. Not sure how accurate this is but we have seen several examples of it this winter, Christmas storm and the OBX dumping yesterday are two. How is this going to unfold; I don't know, but does anybody? In order to get SN outside of the mountains, and even there could be in doubt given a GGEM or UKMET track, we need a sig wrap up at H5, and quick! A closed >540dm low is not going to cut it, and that throws caution with areas further south such as GA or SC, excluding the far N or W portions of those states respectively. Around here, and in that referring to the area from GSO towards RWI and back to RDU, maybe even down towards Florence, we want a solution similar to the Euro, but just a few DM deeper at 500mb. 538'ish entering NC west of Lumberton, and < 534 exiting around Elizabeth City would support a changeover in the wake as cooling is realized at the surface. But 545'ish as the GFS and NAM showed, and let alone an open wave will not cut it. I found this interesting from MHX this afternoon, as they are a very conservative office, but am sure they are taking the 0 and 12z EC as there is some wiggle room even here given what is passing overhead. And for anyone banking on surface temps in modeled output as shown, one has to look no further than the Crystal Coast of NC yesterday as all the guidance was around 5F to warm at the surface for the duration of their event, which verified in the mid and upper 20's. Best educated guess on track is 1008 from Pensacola to 995 over or just east of Hatteras, H5 closes off and starts to deepen around Macon and offshore around Norfolk. Thank you for that discussion...I found it very interesting, enlightened, and I understood it completely...which I can't always say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 There looks to be rain involved at Asheville for a prolonged period of time. http://shrmc.ggy.uga...avl&submit=view Hopefully when temperatures go below freezing we can get some accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Andy's webcast http://barkavision.com/wxwebcast/webcast.wmv 5-10 mountains 2-5 far western foothills this is for the GSP market I saw two of the local media outlets put out a map for Western Carolinas...I guess they wanted to take a first stab at it. Karen Wynne (WLOS) had 2-4 inches along I-40 and 4-6 north of Asheville. WYFF had 1-6 for all of WNC. Andy Wood (FOX Carolina) just posted on their blog that he is putting together some maps for a video that will be on their website around 7 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Andy Wood going 5-10 Asheville and west over most of the mtns and a thin area of 2-5 out past Marion and into very far Northern Upstate above Hwy 11. Mark beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Andy Wood going 5-10 Asheville and west over most of the mtns and a thin area of 2-5 out past Marion and into very far Northern Upstate above Hwy 11. Mark beat me to it. I hope he is right! haha That graphic(http://shrmc.ggy.uga.edu/soundings.php?city=kavl&submit=view) I was looking at was kinda depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 How is this going to unfold; I don't know, but does anybody? In order to get SN outside of the mountains, and even there could be in doubt given a GGEM or UKMET track, we need a sig wrap up at H5, and quick! A closed >540dm low is not going to cut it, and that throws caution with areas further south such as GA or SC, excluding the far N or W portions of those states respectively. Around here, and in that referring to the area from GSO towards RWI and back to RDU, maybe even down towards Florence, we want a solution similar to the Euro, but just a few DM deeper at 500mb. 538'ish entering NC west of Lumberton, and < 534 exiting around Elizabeth City would support a changeover in the wake as cooling is realized at the surface. But 545'ish as the GFS and NAM showed, and let alone an open wave will not cut it. I found this interesting from MHX this afternoon, as they are a very conservative office, but am sure they are taking the 0 and 12z EC as there is some wiggle room even here given what is passing overhead. And for anyone banking on surface temps in modeled output as shown, one has to look no further than the Crystal Coast of NC yesterday as all the guidance was around 5F to warm at the surface for the duration of their event, which verified in the mid and upper 20's. So we do we know if this is going to effect the 00z runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I hope he is right! haha That graphic(http://shrmc.ggy.uga...avl&submit=view) I was looking at was kinda depressing. Yep. It's going to be down to the wire. If you have time, look up January '98. The forecast was for a change to rain, but only briefly did then we got hammered. Phil has mentioned it so I am assuming there are similarities. I do know the precip was so heavy that it appeared to have no choice but to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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